Future Price Cap

MouldyOldDough

I don't understand how they can predict the future - but according to Octopus - here is next years energy price cap....

Badboi

So for allowing for margins of error, it’s going to be the same for the rest of the year (bar economic slumps, wars, etc)

la531983

MouldyOldDough said:

I don't understand how they can predict the future - but according to Octopus - here is next years energy price cap....

Because the observation period is 12 months so they are making guesses based on the time already elapsed.

bob2302

MouldyOldDough said:

I don't understand how they can predict the future - but according to Octopus - here is next years energy price cap....

Do you have a link for that?

bristolleedsfan

EDF .......

bristolleedsfan

British Gas ...

bristolleedsfan

Eon Next ......

QrizB

So, broadly and to summarise, the major energy retailers are all expecting the price cap to remain roughly the same for the next year or so?

mmmmikey

QrizB said:

So, broadly and to summarise, the major energy retailers are all expecting the price cap to remain roughly the same for the next year or so?

.....with caveats along the lines of the British Gas screenshot above. These predictions don't allow for price shocks due to geo-politics. We all have to make our own guess as to what effect US politics and any retaliatory actions might have on this, so I personally wouldn't put too much store in these numbers. IMHO there's never been a better time to fix. But each to their own....

spot1034

There are several factors but the longer term predictions are based to a considerable degree on what it would cost to buy for that period in today's market, and the market moves up and down minute by minute. That's why the price cap predictions from some of the big suppliers change every week and might turn out to be very different to the price for a particular date when we finally get to it. 

And today, wholesale gas prices have fallen quite sharply as have oil prices. It's just one day but the next price cap will be just a little lower than if prices had stayed the same today. Prices have fallen somewhere around 6% in today's session for the longer term as well, so assuming the fall isn't immediately reversed the next revisions to those price cap predictions will probably be down on the last ones. We might see some cheaper fixes as well. 

UK NBP Natural Gas Futures Pricing