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If you are an SWR purist, when does your retirement start?
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westv said:OldScientist said:westv said:MK62 said:michaels said:If my retirement had started when I handed in my notice 3 months ago then my SWR would be about 5k pa higher than it is now I am about to hit my retirement date.
To me this points up a pretty big flaw with a pure SWR approach.
PS - personally I'm not really a big believer in the "pure" SWR drawdown plan......in my view it's basically gambling that the future will be no worse than the worst period in the past......it might well not be, but nobody knows!
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michaels said:MK62 said:michaels said:MK62 said:michaels said:If my retirement had started when I handed in my notice 3 months ago then my SWR would be about 5k pa higher than it is now I am about to hit my retirement date.
To me this points up a pretty big flaw with a pure SWR approach.
PS - personally I'm not really a big believer in the "pure" SWR drawdown plan......in my view it's basically gambling that the future will be no worse than the worst period in the past......it might well not be, but nobody knows!2 -
Hoenir said:michaels said:Of course, that 10% market decline between handing in my notice and stating my retirement was so last weeks news, more like 20% now?
My portfolio which currently is about 57% equities has lost 8% overall. 14% on the equities (but I suspect that will up between 15 and 20% by the end of today). That is since the peak at 24th January.
Small cap index funds are getting hammered more again - adding to the debate about whether small cap stocks are really a good diversifyer in market crashes anymore or if this is just slanted by historical periods from many decades ago.
It's an interesting week because a lot of advisers who use cash flow planning tools like Voyant Go, use April 6th as the date to update the balances (although probably many may do stress testing on current balances during the year). What if this is a flash in the pan, tariffs are quietly diluted and the markets goes back up to last week's level?
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michaels said:Of course, that 10% market decline between handing in my notice and stating my retirement was so last weeks news, more like 20% now?
Vanguards FTSE All world is down 12.6% ( weak Dollar not helping)
Typical medium risk pension fund portfolio will be down between 4 and 6% in 3 months.1 -
Albermarle said:michaels said:Of course, that 10% market decline between handing in my notice and stating my retirement was so last weeks news, more like 20% now?
Vanguards FTSE All world is down 12.6% ( weak Dollar not helping)
Typical medium risk pension fund portfolio will be down between 4 and 6% in 3 months.
S&P down 15% from peak, GBP up from 1.22 to 1.31 in similar time frameI think....0 -
michaels said:Albermarle said:michaels said:Of course, that 10% market decline between handing in my notice and stating my retirement was so last weeks news, more like 20% now?
Vanguards FTSE All world is down 12.6% ( weak Dollar not helping)
Typical medium risk pension fund portfolio will be down between 4 and 6% in 3 months.
S&P down 15% from peak, GBP up from 1.22 to 1.31 in similar time frame
Trump wants a weaker $ to improve the USA's export competitiveness.0 -
Pat38493 said:Hoenir said:michaels said:Of course, that 10% market decline between handing in my notice and stating my retirement was so last weeks news, more like 20% now?
Small cap index funds are getting hammered more again - adding to the debate about whether small cap stocks are really a good diversifyer in market crashes anymore or if this is just slanted by historical periods from many decades ago.
Apple employs over one million people in China directly and indirectly. Onshoring back to the USA isn't going to happen any time soon. Nor are consumers going to pay £2,500 for the latest Iphone.0 -
This is when I’m glad I shouted “bank” a few months ago, and shifted 9-ish years of future withdrawals to cash / STMM. On the other hand, if, in 8 years’ time, the equities element of my portfolio hasn’t recovered from this drop, then my view of my SWR may require modification. Until then, compass in hand, onwards…
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zagfles said:michaels said:MK62 said:michaels said:MK62 said:michaels said:If my retirement had started when I handed in my notice 3 months ago then my SWR would be about 5k pa higher than it is now I am about to hit my retirement date.
To me this points up a pretty big flaw with a pure SWR approach.
PS - personally I'm not really a big believer in the "pure" SWR drawdown plan......in my view it's basically gambling that the future will be no worse than the worst period in the past......it might well not be, but nobody knows!And so we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.0
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