Conflicting State Pension Forecasts

Taylor2000

Hi all,

I recently sent off for an updated pension forecast, I'm very confused as this is now showing that I will be short of receiving a full SP. However when I sent for a forecast in 2023 it showed that I was on track. Please see below the exact figures as presented on my two forecasts.

I received my 1st forecast on the 15/09/2023 it stated 
Your estimate up to 5 April 2022 is £179.69 a week
Your Forecast if you contribute another 5 years before 5 April 2028 is £203.85 a week.

The 2nd forecast which I just received dated 06/02/2025 states
Your estimate up to 5 April 2024 is £194.98
Your forecast if you contribute until 5 April 2028 is £220.26.

My question is how in my previous forecast I was seemingly on track to receive the full, SP in fact the original estimate is 9p a week over what the full state pension was in that tax year, so how has this now decreased and I look to be 94p a week short when my circumstances have not changed?
If anyone has any insight it would be much appreciated.

molerat

£179.69 at 23-24 rate is £194.98 at 24-25 rate so the same amount increased with inflation.

In 23-24 you needed (4.1) 5 full years to reach the full pension of £203.85 with 5 years left so doable

in 24-25 you would need (4.1) 5 full years to reach the full pension of £221.20 with only 4 left so can only reach £220.26

I assume you have not been making any contributions, the forecast should state you can fill a gap to reach the full amount.

Taylor2000

@molerat thanks for your reply.

I currently receive ESA and have been for many years, so my contributions are made fully each year, this is what's confusing me?

molerat

DWP are renowned for not processing the contributions so that will be where the missing year has gone.  It will likely pop up sometime soon.   I would be tempted to get a forecast twice a year from now on.  Do you not have access to on line forecasts ? ( Photo driving licence or passport required for new access )

Taylor2000

@molerat
Ok, that makes sense🙄 typical DWP.
My only question here is, is this something I myself would have to chase up or would this all rectify for when I become entitled to my SP? Just wondering as my birth date is not longer after the start of a new tax year in 2028.

molerat

I would chase if it is not sorted by the next time you get a forecast.

I would also get a full NI record to see if there are any other missing years.

https://www.tax.service.gov.uk/shortforms/form/NIStatement

Taylor2000

@molerat
Thanks for that link.
Who would I have to chase it up with if it's not sorted the next time I get a forecast?

Also just to appease my brain would you agree that from my initial post my 1st forecast looked like I was on target to reach full SP and that either the 2022/2023 or 2023/2024 credits have not been processed which is the reason the 2nd forecast has shown me to be off target?

It looks like because I'm right down to the wire in reaching my full SP entitlement, when I come to claim it (Feb 2028 4 months prior to SP age) I won't have the final years contributions added and the final figure may have to be revised at a later date, if that makes sense?

molerat

Taylor2000 said:

@molerat
Thanks for that link.
Who would I have to chase it up with if it's not sorted the next time I get a forecast?

Also just to appease my brain would you agree that from my initial post my 1st forecast looked like I was on target to reach full SP and that either the 2022/2023 or 2023/2024 credits have not been processed which is the reason the 2nd forecast has shown me to be off target?

It looks like because I'm right down to the wire in reaching my full SP entitlement, when I come to claim it (Feb 2028 4 months prior to SP age) I won't have the final years contributions added and the final figure may have to be revised at a later date, if that makes sense?

It would be the 23/24 credit that is missing for that particular 2 forecasts to present how they have but that doesn't mean there are not others missing.
For missing credits you would contact whichever department deals with your benefit claim.  I suspect when you get your NI record there will be a few more missing.