Rate my SIPP - ITV high conviction

FIREDreamer

Bostonerimus1 said:

OldScientist said:

According to https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ITV.L/ the 5 year performance of ITV has been -26%, while the 5 year performance of the FTSE100 has been +17% (these figures "may include dividends or other distributions"). In the same 5 year period HSBC FTSE all-world has grown by about 75%. The price return on ITV has been rather unfortunate over the last 25 years falling from 450 in 2000 to 75 today (although anyone buying at the lowest price of 25 in 2009 would have seen their investment triple).

However, the point of diversification is not so much about performance as it is about reducing uncompensated risk and downside risk since company failure can result in a value of zero. While the SP500 or FTSE all-world indices may, or may not, be overvalued, it would be an unusual set of circumstances that saw apple, microsoft, facebook, amazon, tesla, etc. all fail simultaneously.

ITV looks like a dog over recent years, but the ROI on it is going to depend on the buy and sell dates which gets complicated. If the OP has a buy and hold strategy it will be easy to see the gains...or losses...but the real issue is the future performance and as the OP claims this is their SIPP I'd give it 0% for common sense. I get agitated when I see portfolios with too many funds, but just ITV shares is criminal even if trading is in the plan which I also think is dumb. But OP's posting style smells of troll to me, which is what I hope they are because the alternative is quite scary and sad.

The screenshot in post 1 looks genuine to me. That is how Hargreaves Lansdown present the data on their website. I doubt it is photoshopped or AI generated.

MeteredOut

FIREDreamer said:

Bostonerimus1 said:

OldScientist said:

According to https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ITV.L/ the 5 year performance of ITV has been -26%, while the 5 year performance of the FTSE100 has been +17% (these figures "may include dividends or other distributions"). In the same 5 year period HSBC FTSE all-world has grown by about 75%. The price return on ITV has been rather unfortunate over the last 25 years falling from 450 in 2000 to 75 today (although anyone buying at the lowest price of 25 in 2009 would have seen their investment triple).

However, the point of diversification is not so much about performance as it is about reducing uncompensated risk and downside risk since company failure can result in a value of zero. While the SP500 or FTSE all-world indices may, or may not, be overvalued, it would be an unusual set of circumstances that saw apple, microsoft, facebook, amazon, tesla, etc. all fail simultaneously.

ITV looks like a dog over recent years, but the ROI on it is going to depend on the buy and sell dates which gets complicated. If the OP has a buy and hold strategy it will be easy to see the gains...or losses...but the real issue is the future performance and as the OP claims this is their SIPP I'd give it 0% for common sense. I get agitated when I see portfolios with too many funds, but just ITV shares is criminal even if trading is in the plan which I also think is dumb. But OP's posting style smells of troll to me, which is what I hope they are because the alternative is quite scary and sad.

The screenshot in post 1 looks genuine to me. That is how Hargreaves Lansdown present the data on their website. I doubt it is photoshopped or AI generated.

Anyone with a bit of technical ability can use the browser Dev Tools/Inspect option to edit a web page in situ to make it say anything you want - this is how some scammers work after they've taken control of a victims device.

But, I too think it is genuine. It is certainly an interesting investment strategy, and one that no-one will convince me relies on anything other a significant amount of good fortune.

GenX0212

pterri said:

Imagine if your entire pension was in BlackBerry shares…. Amazing, until it wasn’t 

Or Kodak..

FIREDreamer

GenX0212 said:

pterri said:

Imagine if your entire pension was in BlackBerry shares…. Amazing, until it wasn’t 

Or Kodak..

Or Marconi

Ciprico

With Google and Facebook sucking up the worlds advertising revenue, and kids (anyone under 25) not  watching tv at all, and the growth of netflix and similar, old school "linear" TV is going to struggle to survive, let alone thrive ...

You're very brave...

Juno_Moneta

Hey Boston - please give the troll thing a rest.

This is my SIPP.

I’ve also been posting on MSE for years. 

Meet me for a beer if you want to see my HL App! 

Cus

Sticking all of the SIPP into one company looks like something one would do when they are chasing losses made based on previous decisions that likely also didn't follow the stable diversified recommended theory.  Hope that's not your case. 
If you have a plan that as soon as you hit a  price target for ITV then you will sell all/most of it and then put in a tracker, then that's also very dangerous 

kempiejon

The ITV linear TV and advertising might be in decline but the streaming model is getting subscribers, the in house production service is profitable and growing. If no one is watching TV why is netflix growing and would they be likely suitor to buy into that ready made talent and production team? ITV up 30% in 12 months and 10% in one month. If I had a spare £500k in one of my SIPP acounts last year and built a stake in ITV, adding to it in November I'd have nearly £900k today. Up nearly 3% this week alone.
With ITV currently valued at £2.9B and estimates that the production/studio arm estimated to be worth over half that a break up could produce value. ITV sp is down quite a bit of the past 3 or 4 years but has been churning out an income most of that time. In fact the 20 year history of ITV sees regular highs and lows from pennies in the early 90s, rising to £2.60 by the millenium, down to sub £1 for 5 years 2009 a max again in 2015 and sub £1 again today. A smart/lucky investor following the trend could easily have increased their money several times over.
The stories about being broken up by a takeover or activist investor have been about for a while so whether the time is now I know I don't know.
Asset allocation, risk mitigation and diversity is a free lunch but sometime fortune favours the brave. I used to invest with a conviction portfolio, never one but often only a handful of shares and it was my most profitabe time investing but it was intensive, hard work and didn't really suit my personality but double digit annual growth for about 5 years helped my planning.
But what do I know?

Juno_Moneta

kempiejon - thank you for posting something positive, really interesting read after some of the more negative / incredulous views. 👍

Both views are fine and expected however - keep them coming!

MeteredOut

Juno_Moneta said:

kempiejon - thank you for posting something positive, really interesting read after some of the more negative / incredulous views. 👍

Both views are fine and expected however - keep them coming!

I'd not say the views are either negative or incredulous, but simply pointing out the very high risk in having an investment strategy so heavily weighted to a single stock. 

But, if you truly believe in the fundamentals and future of ITV, then it works for you, and I do look forward to regular updates.