Tech stock share price falls

vacheron

Cus said:

MX5huggy said:

Bit annoying, looks like recovery will be complete before the monthly investment goes in on Monday. 

Why does that matter?

I would imagine because they can pick up the shares during the dip at a bargain price. 

Cus

vacheron said:

Cus said:

MX5huggy said:

Bit annoying, looks like recovery will be complete before the monthly investment goes in on Monday. 

Why does that matter?

I would imagine because they can pick up the shares during the dip at a bargain price. 

Yeah I don't get that mathematically tbh. Surely an asset that did not drop 5% before you buy it has a greater chance of being higher in say a year compared to the asset that has just dropped 5%.

vacheron

Cus said:

vacheron said:

Cus said:

MX5huggy said:

Bit annoying, looks like recovery will be complete before the monthly investment goes in on Monday. 

Why does that matter?

I would imagine because they can pick up the shares during the dip at a bargain price. 

Yeah I don't get that mathematically tbh. Surely an asset that did not drop 5% before you buy it has a greater chance of being higher in say a year compared to the asset that has just dropped 5%.

The problem is that (despite what many people believe) share prices are not lineally mathematical, they are highly chaotic. 

I don’t think that I have one stock that hasn’t fell by 5% in the last 12-24 months, it is the timing that is the lucky part. 😁

Secret2ndAccount

vacheron said:

I'm waiting for someone to uncover that it was all just a ploy by the Chinese government to short Nvidia, and the "AI" is actually just tens of thousands of government empolyees sitting in warehouses answering questions.

Not a sustainable business model, but they won't need it to be now they have aquired Nvidia's 500 Billion missing marked cap!

I think that your post is in jest. For anyone who thinks it might be true, they have actually published the model – not just the results. So you can look at the code and see how it works. There are some good efficiencies in there. One simple example – they used 8 bit calculation where some western models use 32 bits.

To those working in this field, I don’t think it came as a surprise that you could build a more efficient model. If you have 50,000 of the latest Nvidia GPU’s available you concentrate on making your model more capable. If you have limited compute available you concentrate on making it more efficient. In the 1990's there was huge demand in the USA for Russian programmers. They had developed extreme ingenuity to work with the stone-age hardware in the USSR.

Just like with the launch of ChatGPT, the stock market reacted to known information not at all, then all at once, leading to some big overshoots in pricing.

Cus

vacheron said:

Cus said:

vacheron said:

Cus said:

MX5huggy said:

Bit annoying, looks like recovery will be complete before the monthly investment goes in on Monday. 

Why does that matter?

I would imagine because they can pick up the shares during the dip at a bargain price. 

Yeah I don't get that mathematically tbh. Surely an asset that did not drop 5% before you buy it has a greater chance of being higher in say a year compared to the asset that has just dropped 5%.

The problem is that (despite what many people believe) share prices are not lineally mathematical, they are highly chaotic. 

I don’t think that I have one stock that hasn’t fell by 5% in the last 12-24 months, it is the timing that is the lucky part. 😁

I agree they are not linear. But if on day 1 a stock price is 100, then day 2 it's 95. Then in my mind the likelihood that the stock will be 150 in 1000 days is more likely if the price is 100 on day 2 rather than 95. 

Edit. Otherwise it just seems like timing the market is important and we have all been told that time in market is best

Secret2ndAccount

kinger101 said:

vacheron said:

IvanOpinion said:

Many tech stocks are very over priced at the minute so it will take very little to knock some of them off their perch.

Exactly, and the media have a vested interest in making it sound like a second Black Monday apocalypse, however if you look at the five-year chart it is nothing more than a very tiny blip at the top of an extraordinarily high peak!

Just had a look at VWRP which is a large chunk of my holdings.  Price about where it was 2 weeks ago.

2/3 of stocks were up yesterday, including the biggest tech company (Apple). Also Amazon Facebook and Netflix.
My portfolio has crashed to where it was two weeks ago.
My Broadcom shares were down 17% yesterday, Now only up 100% since I bought it in late '23

Don't panic

Cobbler_tone

The only way I ‘play’ the market is with my company shares. £90 net a month for £300 worth of shares. Started buying at £30 and now £70, it’s a no brainer, plus the dividends add up. Tax free after 3-5 years.
Some people I work with long service are on £30k a year and have £150k worth of shares if they haven’t touched them. I don’t stress about the prices as whenever you sell them you are quids in, unless the bottom totally fall out of them which is unlikely. Company schemes are great benefits.
No CGT either if sold whilst with or when leaving the company.

noclaf

MX5huggy said:

Bit annoying, looks like recovery will be complete before the monthly investment goes in on Monday. 

I was just thinking the same! I have 4 funds in my work pension including a more narrow/US focussed Sharia fund that's done very well since last year and a US Equities tracker.....next investment goes in end of this month so will likely miss the bigger dip that came and went but I am not massively bothered as every month I am buying more and more units so a few more drops here and there could help me out longer term....shut out the noise so to speak.

QrizB

vacheron said:

Hoenir said:

The heady dot com days of BT when it's shares traded at over £20. Or Amazon when it reached $1113 only to fall back to $5.51  The totally insane market valuation placed on Last Minute.Com. As many investors bought the hype and couldn't grasp the fundanmental financial reality of the business world.  

… and after personally seeing all those come and go, those 20 years younger than me still wonder why I remain so sceptical about cyber currency and NFT’s, despite working in a hi-tech industry. 😊

If you'll excuse a BSG gif:

Moonwolf

Cobbler_tone said:

The only way I ‘play’ the market is with my company shares. £90 net a month for £300 worth of shares. Started buying at £30 and now £70, it’s a no brainer, plus the dividends add up. Tax free after 3-5 years.
Some people I work with long service are on £30k a year and have £150k worth of shares if they haven’t touched them. I don’t stress about the prices as whenever you sell them you are quids in, unless the bottom totally fall out of them which is unlikely. Company schemes are great benefits.
No CGT either if sold whilst with or when leaving the company.

I was in a BT sharesave many years ago where I paid 61p a share for just under 25,000 shares (£250 a month over 5 years) worth £3.30 a share at the time.  I still have 3,000 BT shares in my stocks and shares ISA along with some other bits and pieces, although I will move it all to cash in the next few months.