Are we expecting the BOE Base Rate to drop to 3.75% on the 6th November 2025?

IAMIAM

Potential for 3.5% by year end?

kinger101

I would be surprised if there is another drop before end of summer.  Increased NI rates are going to be passed on in many sectors.

IAMIAM

Don's say that mortgage due in June, and do not fancy securing a fix rate at 4.4% just yet!

la531983

IAMIAM said:

Don's say that mortgage due in June, and do not fancy securing a fix rate at 4.4% just yet!

Lenders wont suddenly drop their rates as soon as the BoE drop theirs, predictions of rate movements are already priced in, as well as the rates being based on other factors.

IAMIAM

la531983 said:

IAMIAM said:

Don's say that mortgage due in June, and do not fancy securing a fix rate at 4.4% just yet!

Lenders wont suddenly drop their rates as soon as the BoE drop theirs, predictions of rate movements are already priced in, as well as the rates being based on other factors.

Everyone says this. But lenders have ALWAYS dropped or increased their rate the week before or week after an annoucement. Since 2020, Don't make me get out my spreadsheet tracking dates aand rate changes at HSBC, Halifax and Nationwide. I have no life. lol

Hoenir

Base rate may well fall. Cost of borrowing could well remain high. Base rate isn't the main driver of mortgage lending rates. Better indication now is direction of travel of the UK 10 year Gilt yield. 

IAMIAM

Hoenir said:

Base rate may well fall. Cost of borrowing could well remain high. Base rate isn't the main driver of mortgage lending rates. Better indication now is direction of travel of the UK 10 year Gilt yield. 

I find it bizzare people are brain washed into thinking this. So the BOE rate is 4.75% and mortgage rates are 4.5%. So when the BOE rate is 1%, lending rates could well be 5%? The problem is too many people are too busy trying to explain that the BOE rate is not a factor of mortgage lending, yet we have never seen my point in history EVER.

Markmywords

kinger101 said:

I would be surprised if there is another drop before end of summer.  Increased NI rates are going to be passed on in many sectors.

yes i agree too with this

jobbywobbler

I do believe they will go with a 0.25% drop in Feb, even to help out the Gov (yes meant to be impartial).    I do see 3 x 0.25 drops this year, firms will just take the NI increase - encourage more pension, reduced hrs.  

Sure public sector increases is just wooden dollars anyway.

Rates probably are best circa 3.5% long term.

BikingBud

jobbywobbler said:

I do believe they will go with a 0.25% drop in Feb, even to help out the Gov (yes meant to be impartial).    I do see 3 x 0.25 drops this year, firms will just take the NI increase - encourage more pension, reduced hrs.  

Sure public sector increases is just wooden dollars anyway.

Rates probably are best circa 3.5% long term.

Why 3.5%?

Why not 5.5%?

Why not 1.5%?

lojo1000

Central bank base rates and mortgage rates can go anywhere over the term of a mortgage of / 15-30 years.

Incredibly in the world we live, the key decisions are held by very few people who influence the major moves in rates. 

By the end of 2025, we can have a sharp recession led by collapse of AI valuations >>> stocks >>> confidence >>> unemployment.....

....or we can continue on the current path with the govts and central bankers telling everyone the economy is on a good path and ppl accepting this and spending their income as normal.