Are the markets staying irrational longer than I can comprehend or....

Hoenir

dont_use_vistaprint said:

Do markets become more resilient to crashes & rebalancing over time? Is there any data to that  as we go forward in time crashes become less frequent and less impact?

I was looking back at what happened during Covid and wondering if something similar happened again. I imagine the impact  on markets would be far less.

We’ve had the heightened threats of Russia and China hanging around for a while . Nothing has come of that yet. Trump seems to bring a stabilising  effect to things, TikTok is back up! What are the kinds of triggers we should be looking for that would cause a crash to begin. What can we learn from the past? 

Am i right assuming people are expecting about a 20% loss in the S&P500 sometime in the next year or two? And maybe three to five years to recover?  And that it’s mostly due to the overvaluation of Mag7

People will always fall into the same traps as previous generations. 

Linton

dont_use_vistaprint said:

Do markets become more resilient to crashes & rebalancing over time? Is there any data to that  as we go forward in time crashes become less frequent and less impact?

I was looking back at what happened during Covid and wondering if something similar happened again. I imagine the impact  on markets would be far less.

We’ve had the heightened threats of Russia and China hanging around for a while . Nothing has come of that yet. Trump seems to bring a stabilising  effect to things, TikTok is back up! What are the kinds of triggers we should be looking for that would cause a crash to begin. What can we learn from the past? 

Am i right assuming people are expecting about a 20% loss in the S&P500 sometime in the next year or two? And maybe three to five years to recover?  And that it’s mostly due to the overvaluation of Mag7

Looking historically the US market crashes  with 20% crashes every few years and more significant ones perhaps once a decade.

I dont see any reason for this not to continue and some reasons for more fundamental movements. In particular are Russia and China "threats" or the start of a new era the US losing its dominant position with Russia and China being opportunities?

Qyburn

dont_use_vistaprint said:

I was looking back at what happened during Covid and wondering if something similar happened again. I imagine the impact  on markets would be far less.

In actual fact the Covid outbreak didn't really have that big or long lasting impact, many (most?) funds were back to or above their start of year values by late May or so.

LHW99

Hoenir said:

dont_use_vistaprint said:

Do markets become more resilient to crashes & rebalancing over time? Is there any data to that  as we go forward in time crashes become less frequent and less impact?

I was looking back at what happened during Covid and wondering if something similar happened again. I imagine the impact  on markets would be far less.

We’ve had the heightened threats of Russia and China hanging around for a while . Nothing has come of that yet. Trump seems to bring a stabilising  effect to things, TikTok is back up! What are the kinds of triggers we should be looking for that would cause a crash to begin. What can we learn from the past? 

Am i right assuming people are expecting about a 20% loss in the S&P500 sometime in the next year or two? And maybe three to five years to recover?  And that it’s mostly due to the overvaluation of Mag7

People will always fall into the same traps as previous generations. 

Isn't the saying that - history repeats when the last person who remembers has left the room?

Hoenir

LHW99 said:

Hoenir said:

dont_use_vistaprint said:

Do markets become more resilient to crashes & rebalancing over time? Is there any data to that  as we go forward in time crashes become less frequent and less impact?

I was looking back at what happened during Covid and wondering if something similar happened again. I imagine the impact  on markets would be far less.

We’ve had the heightened threats of Russia and China hanging around for a while . Nothing has come of that yet. Trump seems to bring a stabilising  effect to things, TikTok is back up! What are the kinds of triggers we should be looking for that would cause a crash to begin. What can we learn from the past? 

Am i right assuming people are expecting about a 20% loss in the S&P500 sometime in the next year or two? And maybe three to five years to recover?  And that it’s mostly due to the overvaluation of Mag7

People will always fall into the same traps as previous generations. 

Isn't the saying that - history repeats when the last person who remembers has left the room?

An extended version. 

Financial crises of the past are destined to repeat themselves. Markets are complex places and it's naive to think such events can ever be avoided.  Crises have a high degree of commonality: excessive exuberance, poor regulatory oversight, dodgy accounting, herd mentalities and often includes a sense of infallibility from investors. 

michaels

It seems that central banks feel they have a remit to prevent market crashes.  I suspect the more successful they are the higher the markets will go as downside risk appears to be removed - but perhaps there will then be a circumstance in which central bank intervention is no longer considered to be effective in which case the resulting crash could prove to be very large by historical standards because there have bene fewer, smaller corrections on the way.

I am finding bitcoin instructional, basically an asset with no fundamentals, the value is purely based on what other market participants think the value should be now and will be in future.  Perhaps we need to consider this when thinking about whether equity, bond or whatever other markets are fairly valued.

cloud_dog

I feel a tad happier with today's movements.  Takes a little bit of the froth out. 

pterri

cloud_dog said:

I feel a tad happier with today's movements.  Takes a little bit of the froth out. 

I’ve given up trying to understand anything, and I thought I was quite worldly. (Congrats on getting your date fixed! Mine will be end of July ish)

Alexland

cloud_dog said:

I feel a tad happier with today's movements.  Takes a little bit of the froth out. 

I was just thinking of you and this thread when checking the markets and exchange rates this morning!

m_c_s

I was deeply seeking the cause of the slight panic today.
Why spend $500bn when you can get something more efficient for $10Bn!