Are the markets staying irrational longer than I can comprehend or....

cloud_dog

eskbanker said:

cloud_dog said:

eskbanker said:

But surely 4% over two weeks isn't particularly significant?

Maybe I've lost perspective?

As above, recent £ devaluation will have contributed rather than this being purely a market value issue, but the two major US indices are still both below their early December peaks, so there's an element of recovery from earlier drops too.

TBH I have probably (naively) ignored (forgotten) the FX aspect in some of the increase.

Cobbler_tone

I wouldn't risk the crown jewels anywhere near the stock markets at the best of times, so definitely wouldn't at the moment. We know what is going on in this country and the world. I guess high reward requires high risk but it is knowingly unstable at the moment. For every article you read predicting a crash, you'll read another saying there won't be one. This is invariably the case.
The worst thing anyone can do invested in these markets (unless you are trading) is check your investments daily or else you probably won't sleep much!

On-the-coast

LHW99 said:

westv said:

There will be a crash sooner or later. 

This time next year we'll all be millionaires

Hopefully not via hyperinflation!

ali_bear

Pat38493 said:

The media is also crazy - a few days ago they were reporting that the country was in crisis because government borrowing costs have skyrocketed and heads will roll.  The reality is that the market expectations of future government borrowing went up a little bit.  The next day, US and UK reported lower than forecast inflation and the "crisis" was averted.  All this based on figures for 10 years borrowing costs when, as far as I know, the UK gov doesn't issue 10 years gilts every day, so it wouldn't have had any real effecct on the government anyway until the next time they need to issue bonds/gilts.

I agree the news media is somewhat mental. But I read today that actually the UK govt need to refinance 250Bn of debt this year. 

Economically it would have been much better to borrow to invest for growth when interest rates were at historic lows, but the previous lot could not contemplate that. 

Hoenir

cloud_dog said:

eskbanker said:

But surely 4% over two weeks isn't particularly significant?

Maybe I've lost perspective?

Stock markets are not the real economy.  Markets reflect companies' future earnings, not just present earnings but also those well into the future. Whether they'll be realised or not who knows. 

Bighitter32

Strap in for the mid to long term, prediction over the short term will drive you crazy….. Most professional (active) managers with indefinite data sets and an army of analysts have been proven to fail to consistently beat the markets, hence the popularity in Index Funds.

There will be a crash and there will be a recovery. When…… Good luck guessing that one…..

Altior

cloud_dog said:

...am I just no longer able to comprehend relative value any more?

I appreciate they might be getting excited with the lower inflation numbers recently and the hopes of forging ahead rate cuts, and we will have the numpty back in the Whitehouse which is only likely to fuel business / stock markets, but it all feels a little lacking in substance perhaps?

My simple global equity fund is up almost 4% in a little over 2 weeks.

More to do with the numpty leaving the Whitehouse. Actually, potentially much stronger leadership in prioritising US business, and US businesses drive the global equity valuations. Also abandoning luxury policies.

It's counter intuitive in a way. Prioritising Americans is great for Americans and people who hold US denominated assets. However, if there are winners, there must be losers.

In my opinion, the obvious risk is the monumental level of national debt around the world, and a debt / credit crisis only needs a spark. The US is palpably exposed to this almost as much as the rest of us, good political leadership or not. If the spark catches fire, I doubt anyone will be able to do much about it.

cfw1994

cloud_dog said:

...am I just no longer able to comprehend relative value any more?

I appreciate they might be getting excited with the lower inflation numbers recently and the hopes of forging ahead rate cuts, and we will have the numpty back in the Whitehouse which is only likely to fuel business / stock markets, but it all feels a little lacking in substance perhaps?

My simple global equity fund is up almost 4% in a little over 2 weeks.

I have to say I agree with you….but markets are fickle things 🤷‍♂️

My pot, despite zero going in and a little being withdrawn, has gone up over 26% in the past 12 months.  Similar to you since the start of the year 💪
Feels a little crazy, doesn’t it 😜

That suggests to me I should shift a chunk out, maybe to a money market fund (or similar)….but I haven’t taken the steps to do it 🫣

Yet 🤪

My gut feel is also that, regardless of any political views here, TheMarkets™ might like what the new President may do 👀
To start, at least…..which is essentially what is holding me from ‘locking in’ (& leaving to wither against inflation!) those gains 🧐

Where did I put my crystal ball down?  I’m sure it is here somewhere 🤣

Pat38493

cfw1994 said:

cloud_dog said:

...am I just no longer able to comprehend relative value any more?

I appreciate they might be getting excited with the lower inflation numbers recently and the hopes of forging ahead rate cuts, and we will have the numpty back in the Whitehouse which is only likely to fuel business / stock markets, but it all feels a little lacking in substance perhaps?

My simple global equity fund is up almost 4% in a little over 2 weeks.

I have to say I agree with you….but markets are fickle things 🤷‍♂️

My pot, despite zero going in and a little being withdrawn, has gone up over 26% in the past 12 months.  Similar to you since the start of the year 💪
Feels a little crazy, doesn’t it 😜

That suggests to me I should shift a chunk out, maybe to a money market fund (or similar)….but I haven’t taken the steps to do it 🫣

Yet 🤪

My gut feel is also that, regardless of any political views here, TheMarkets™ might like what the new President may do 👀
To start, at least…..which is essentially what is holding me from ‘locking in’ (& leaving to wither against inflation!) those gains 🧐

Where did I put my crystal ball down?  I’m sure it is here somewhere 🤣

The problem is that each time in the past there was a market crash due to a bubble or suchlike, for quite some time before that, you could find various experts saying that the market was overvalued and there will be a crash.  However on some occasions it carried on going up for years until the inevitable crash finally happened.  

I think some wag once said “Experts have predicted 10 out of the last 2 market crashes”.

eastcorkram

If, sorry, when, there is a crash, would money market funds be effected too?