Is it worth renewing Premium Bonds periodically

jabu94

I've held the maximum amount of Premium Bonds for a number of years. In the last few months, I've noticed what amounts to a considerable reduction in my returns. I was just wondering if anyone else has had a similar experience and if it would improve the results to "refresh" the bonds - that is to cash in and then rebuy a portion of the bonds in order to "update" the bond numbers on a regular basis, to improve returns. Basically, what I am asking is whether there is any advantage to owning newer bonds?

surreysaver

Your bonds would miss a month's draw if you did that, as when you buy a premium bond it is entered into the draw after the next one.
Each bond has an equal chance of winning, so no, it wouldn't make you more likely to win with your method.
The reason it may seem newer bonds are more likely to win is simply because there are more newer bonds in existence than older ones.

Stubod

...no........

400ixl

Makes absolutely no difference whatsoever statistically.

Alexland

You would only do it if you suspected the allocation of prize funds wasn't being done fairly and there was some kind of marketing department influence that caused new investors or people that had contributed recently to win a higher rate of prizes to encourage them to contribute more. To be fair I have suspected this for a long time as my premium bonds did very well initially, well above average, and then the prizes seemed to dwindle but who knows as they shouldn't have continued to perform above average and there should be some periods where they perform a bit below average which is kinda what happened.

FlorayG

Why on Earth do you think that would help? All bonds go in to all draws. There was a guy on the news a couple of years ago who won the top prize with a single bond his mother bought him when he was born, 40+ years ago

wmb194

jabu94 said:

I've held the maximum amount of Premium Bonds for a number of years. In the last few months, I've noticed what amounts to a considerable reduction in my returns. I was just wondering if anyone else has had a similar experience and if it would improve the results to "refresh" the bonds - that is to cash in and then rebuy a portion of the bonds in order to "update" the bond numbers on a regular basis, to improve returns. Basically, what I am asking is whether there is any advantage to owning newer bonds?

It's the nature of randomness. No, waste of time.

XzavierWalnut

Thing I have noticed with mine is the larger blocks of numbers (those in the thousands) tend to win most months, but the smaller ones (those below £1000) rarely win.

Stargunner

XzavierWalnut said:

Thing I have noticed with mine is the larger blocks of numbers (those in the thousands) tend to win most months, but the smaller ones (those below £1000) rarely win.

That is exactly what you would expect to happen.

Section62

XzavierWalnut said:

Thing I have noticed with mine is the larger blocks of numbers (those in the thousands) tend to win most months, but the smaller ones (those below £1000) rarely win.

The larger blocks represent a much bigger target for the arrow of luck to hit.  But each individual bond still has an equal chance of being the one.

Exodi

No different to changing your lottery numbers (and technically you'd be worse off as you'd miss a draw).

I'm a bit suprised that you are drawing any conclusions based on returns 'in the last few months'. You'd think as someone holding the maximum amount 'for a number of years', you'd be all too familiar with volatility by now. Some months you win several hundred, some months you win nothing, one month you might win a million, that's just how it is with Premium Bonds.

If you were looking over a slightly longer term (say a year or so), then yes, prize rates in general have been decreasing.

Jan 2025 - 4.00%
Dec 2024 - 4.15%
Mar 2024 - 4.40%
Sep 2023 - 4.65%