Is it all too good to be true?

af1963

I've found that this online calculator, which explicitly displays your (ever-reducing) chances of still being alive at any age, as well as your likely financial position, helps to concentrate the mind a bit !

https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/

It's based on US figures so slightly inaccurate for UK, but the big picture is generally the same ... 

SouthCoastBoy

Yes, i've used that before, in the example above that red line would concern me

af1963

But when you run it with your own numbers, do you actually *get* a red zone?  That's their standard illustration based on taking a 4% withdrawal rate from a roughly 80/20 shares/bonds investment pot of £1m. And it omits state pension. 

af1963

SouthCoastBoy said:

Yes, i've used that before, in the example above that red line would concern me

It's the big grey zone that would concern me ... 

zagfles

SouthCoastBoy said:

Yes, i've used that before, in the example above that red line would concern me

Well why don't you secure the essential income you'll need eg through index linked annuities/IL gilt ladder, to top up state pension/DB, it sounds like you've got easily enough to do that. Then whatever's left over invest in equities etc, so will have the freedom to use them without worry of starving if they plummet and can enjoy the proceeds if they do well. 

It's pointless being in equities for their higher returns if you're too scared to use them or build in such a large safety margin that you're drawing less than an IL annuity would pay. 

Albermarle

af1963 said:

SouthCoastBoy said:

Yes, i've used that before, in the example above that red line would concern me

It's the big grey zone that would concern me ... 

Although the grey zone will be a bit smaller for UK.
If you start from 60 the average age of death is about 81/82, whilst in the UK it is a bit higher.

michaels

Albermarle said:

af1963 said:

SouthCoastBoy said:

Yes, i've used that before, in the example above that red line would concern me

It's the big grey zone that would concern me ... 

Although the grey zone will be a bit smaller for UK.
If you start from 60 the average age of death is about 81/82, whilst in the UK it is a bit higher.

Is that all population age of death or for those with a $1m pension pot?  I suspect those who have been able to amass a big pot might have a higher expectancy and in the US at least having a large pot might also allow for better health outcomes....

squirrelpie

michaels said:

Albermarle said:

af1963 said:

SouthCoastBoy said:

Yes, i've used that before, in the example above that red line would concern me

It's the big grey zone that would concern me ... 

Although the grey zone will be a bit smaller for UK.
If you start from 60 the average age of death is about 81/82, whilst in the UK it is a bit higher.

Is that all population age of death or for those with a $1m pension pot?  I suspect those who have been able to amass a big pot might have a higher expectancy and in the US at least having a large pot might also allow for better health outcomes....

Did you look? It offers a choice of three life expectancies (good, middle & poor basically). Choose whatever you think your health and wealth (and lack of exercise ) combine to offer you.

Dazza1902

SouthCoastBoy said:

Dazza1902 said:

Scb.Your numbers are fine, the biggest problem you will have is watching England getting battered in Oz.
 I recently travelled to India and Pakistan  cost peanuts but the cricket was awful.See you in Oz

I would like to do an india tour one day. Been there for work and found the country fascinating.

Do you know if ashes tickets are on sale yet? Been on cricket australia but couldn't find anything. Not sure what test to do. Most probably perth and brisbane.

Not on sale yet. However the grounds have such huge capacities tickets are not too much of a problem. Also cheaper. Btw a 5 day pass for the Dharamasala test was a whopping £13.50 lol

Itsme01x

squirrelpie said:

Ciprico said:

I know this is a pensions forum, but I urge any men over 50 to get a PSA test....

But be aware of the downsides of a PSA test before you book one, and be sure you can cope in your own mind. (not the test itself, but subsequent investigations given the high false positive rate of the test)

My father was disagnosed with high prostrate PSA, ie cancer, they gave him choices but recommended don't do anything.  It is not the most reliable test.  We will do regular check ups - which they have of other factors/signposts. He is still going six years later without a change in his life.  We must also all remember that because we are living longer the rate of being diagnosed with cancer is nearing 1 in 2 people.  An isidious disease.