To Fix or not to Fix?

collinsca

Hi
I am about to come off a 1year fix with Octopus (Im now within the 49 days fee free exit), just after the price cap rise unfortunately, and im looking at what tariff I should go to next.

I'm usually someone who will FIX, however i think i made a mistake to fix for the last year.

My Octopus options are below. I am very happy with Octopus having had a bad experience with British Gas, so am keen to stay,

The Octopus calculator has the below 2 suggestions for my circumstances (they are very close £ wise).
Choose your tariff (octopus.energy)

Octopus 12M Fixed     £100.02
Flexible Octopus         £106.44

Over the last year I have been paying about £113.
This is for Dual fuel.
2 people living in a 3 bed.

Opinions appreciated!

I have seen all of the info here already, where the table suggests over the year the price cap will be down 1% overall.
Is it time to fix your energy or stay on the Price Cap? (moneysavingexpert.com)


Thanks

Scot_39

Take the fix saving,  leave as Octopus fixes in recent past have no exit fees - when - or rather if - rates become lower.

As of now wholesale gas futures on bbc business page are up near the 100p/therm range  from Feb lows sub 60p. Although last few days dropping from over 100p - the trend is up.

That 1% may prove optimistic - although CI last estimate for Jan based on Sep 26 is still down at £1697. 

https://www.cornwall-insight.com/predictions-and-insights-into-the-default-tariff-cap/

That one metric of Gas pricing on BBC has risen maybe 5% since 26th - but its volatile / noisy - and Ofgem caps use a time window average on their price metrics. 

spot1034

Both EDF and British Gas are now forecasting a small rise in January. They update every week, usually on Monday or Tuesday. 

https://www.britishgas.co.uk/energy/price-cap.html

https://www.edfenergy.com/gas-and-electricity/price-cap-predictions

molerat

The market is certainly moving.  I fixed last week with Eon at £5 below July cap rate.  Octopus were showing their Oct V1 at £10 pa more expensive.  My daughter fixed 2 days later at £28 above July cap, that fix has also now gone and their cheapest fix is a 2 year at £81 above July cap, £65 below Oct cap so still likely a good choice..  Octopus Oct V2 is showing as £108 dearer against my fix.

Scot_39

spot1034 said:

Both EDF and British Gas are now forecasting a small rise in January. They update every week, usually on Monday or Tuesday. 

https://www.britishgas.co.uk/energy/price-cap.html

https://www.edfenergy.com/gas-and-electricity/price-cap-predictions

Thanks  - interesting neither are showing much of a summer seasonal dip though.

Have these in past been similar or worse in accuracy to say 3 quarter ci forecasts.

Just sceptical given they have a clear vested interest in market e.g. selling fixes to keep customers.

MikeJXE

Take  the fix

No exit fee

No brainer 

spot1034

Scot_39 said:

spot1034 said:

Both EDF and British Gas are now forecasting a small rise in January. They update every week, usually on Monday or Tuesday. 

https://www.britishgas.co.uk/energy/price-cap.html

https://www.edfenergy.com/gas-and-electricity/price-cap-predictions

Thanks  - interesting neither are showing much of a summer seasonal dip though.

Have these in past been similar or worse in accuracy to say 3 quarter ci forecasts.

Just sceptical given they have a clear vested interest in market e.g. selling fixes to keep customers.

I think all they can do is use present wholesale prices for the period in question and the one thing that's almost certain is that these prices will move about and the final calculation will be based on different numbers to now, but how different? No one knows. 

I don't think either company has been publishing these forecasts for very long. The Cornwall Insight predictions haven't been particularly accurate for the longer terms and have been revised a lot as the dates get nearer. It's only when you get in to the assessment period for the next quarter that you can really see the way the figures are panning out and speak with a bit more conviction. 

Scot_39

I used to read the CI long term forecast series of predictions - they were all over the shot quarter to quarter - so stopped.

collinsca

Thanks everyone, appreciate the views. I'll fix!