Variable vs Fixed Options Advice

Taylorette

Over the past couple of days I have spent hours looking at various fixed and variable tariffs on offer, for two properties (mine and an elderly relative's). My brain has now turned to mush and I feel incredibly stupid. I could really be doing with fresh eyes and some sense to help me figure this out.

My case: low usage household (Gas: 6400kWh/year and Electricity: 1700kWh/year). Currently on SO Energy's standard "Flex" tariff. 

My relative's case: high gas usage household (Gas: 15000 kWh/year and Electricity: 1200 kWh/year). Currently on British Gas' standard variable tariff.

When running a comparison on Cheap Energy Club, the best variable option for both cases is EDF Ensure Tracker Sep25, and the best fixed option is British Gas Fixed 12M v14. 

The British Gas tariff's savings are to be made on the standing charges (Gas: 24.947p and Electricity: 50.474p), while their unit rates will be fixed inline with the price cap as of October 1st. 

The EDF tariff is based on the same concept of saving on standing charges (Gas: 24.791 and Electricity: 56.448p). However, the unit rate is variable and will move with the price cap.

The question in each case (bearing in mind the difference in usage): is it worth fixing with the lower standing charge and sticking with October 1st's unit rates for a year, or is it worth having the slightly higher standing charge with variable unit rates? 

Also to be considered is the shared £150 British Gas referral bonus if we both take out the fixed tariff, due my relative already being a customer.

If I wanted to confuse things further - and having just noticed it while writing this post - I could ask if the E.ON Next Pledge Tracker 12m V5 is also worth considering for the high usage household, given that the saving is made on the unit rate (and there are no exit fees).

I'm aware that nobody has a crystal ball to allow them to see how the unit rates and standing charges will fare next year, but I'm sure there's some simple mathematics and common sense to be applied here (especially when taking into account the referral bonus) and my brain is just not cooperating at the moment. 

Any advice or insight for this dunce would be truly appreciated. 

Mark_d

I would just plug the numbers into uswitch.  And take the cheapest deal that comes with no exit charge.  I don't worry about fixed or variable.

If I ever find that I'm not paying the cheapest prices (only looking at tariffs with no exit fee) then I change supplier.  It doesn't matter if you switch quite a lot because your supplier has to automatically refund any credit balance when you leave them.