Cornwall Insight final update on Q4 price cap

spot1034

Following the end of the three month assessment period on Friday, Cornwall Insight have published their final prediction for the Q424 price cap -  'average' prices for the 'average' household consumption are forecast to rise 9%. They are forecasting a further modest increase in January. 

The assessment period for the Q125 cap begins today. 

https://www.cornwall-insight.com/press-and-media/press-release/cornwall-insight-release-final-forecast-for-october-price-cap/

the_lunatic_is_in_my_head

Hope it's ok to post on this thread, given the below (noticeably the zero exit fee) does it seem sensible to fix please? 

Current tariff:



Current offer from Octopus:



We use roughly 300-350kw per month (electric only, no gas) so roughly it would cost us an extra £6 to £8 between now and the end of Sep but we'd save more than that (possibly marginally) over Oct-Apr.

The link in the OP estimates unit prices at 24.67p but we are North Wales and Merseyside which is one of the higher priced areas.

bristolleedsfan

the_lunatic_is_in_my_head said:

Hope it's ok to post on this thread, given the below (noticeably the zero exit fee) does it seem sensible to fix please? 

Current tariff:



Current offer from Octopus:



We use roughly 300-350kw per month (electric only, no gas) so roughly it would cost us an extra £6 to £8 between now and the end of Sep but we'd save more than that (possibly marginally) over Oct-Apr.

The link in the OP estimates unit prices at 24.67p but we are North Wales and Merseyside which is one of the higher priced areas.

Electricity only  easy to get a cheaper fixed rate than Octopus offer.

Octopus tend to offer cheaper fixed gas rates than most other suppliers, electricity tends to be priced higher than most others, nothing to do with Octopus being largest electricity suppler Octo Chief answered  someone on X..

Scot_39

So c£1714 potentially - back slightly above Apr levels, but good news in some respects as still c£120 below last October's £1834 for DD at current then just new tdcvs.

OCT 23 - £1834 at current - then new - tdcvs
JAN - £1928 - up £94
APR - £1690 - down £238, but would have been more without new "additions" and "increases" - some way above inflation
JUL - £1568 - down £122 
OCT 24 - £1714 - up £146 if forecast correct

But our bills aren't just energy based - they include other costs - arguably cross subsidies in some cases - e.g. for debt, insulation schemes etc.

Arguably it has been too easy for Ofgem and govt to shift costs onto consumers when energy cheap and more recently as in April for many of us -  as getting cheaper after crisis highs. 

But as CI forecaster comment -  bills are likely to remain "far above pre crisis levels" - but in many cases the domestic changes being magnified by deliberate govt and Ofgem policy.  So perhaps time we complained and asked for an honest debate / change.

Now that prices are rising  - let's see if Ofgem / govt energy policy reviewed as  the policy components of our bills ( even just the recent additional increases from April ) a non trivial % of our bills. I would guess not.
And worry the clamour in certain circles for social tariffs - that do exist at say some water firms - may increase cross subsidy via bills even more. 

April additions included
- debt special £28 (but removed £11 Covid from Apr 23) (dd/ credit - prepay lower)
- prepayment levelisation £10 on DD/credit
But also notably mentions
- CfD for renewables inc £10 to £26 as part of wholesale electric cost allowance

Standard more long term  policy costs (inc GBIS and Renewables obligation) up £30 in part inflation - but also policy changes elsewhere - £158 to £188.

And despite some positive cost savings in network costs like SoLR (-£17) and balancing decreasing (-£33) being noted, at median tdcv the net cost was down only £13 - primarily due the impact of changes to distribution costs - (wonder how much is new renewables related).  Ofgem have for instance calculated distribution to have added further £17 on average to electricity (in Ofgem speak) nil kWh total - the annual  standing charge  (£17/365 +vat = 4.9p / day).


July changes
- minor reductions to pro rata charges as wholesale in particular leads £122 cap fall as it falls £107
- CfD allowance for projected renewables input mentioned as increased by £11 to £37 in that reduced wholesale £613 (£720-£107)

Must try to see if can glean from Ofgem spreadsheets the gas electric split - within total for gas and electric ex vat now £613 inc that £37 CfD

But in one approximation of cost to us as CfD is a unit rate floor/ guarantee afaik
£37pa / 2700kWh pa tdcv + vat =  1.44p / kWh in average single rate =  24.5p  - about 6%.

All figures obviously glossed over by many - hidden or just accepted in the widely welcomed overall cap drops. 
Now cap rising again - perhaps more will question exactly what those bills are covering.

In a very unlikely scenario - but just to reflect the impact - if were to take out the £28 debt, £10 levelisation and full £188 policy costs (some have been present in bills for many years - in one form or another) - at July DD level - the cap could be - £226 + vat lower so £1331 not £1568 - i.e. approx 15% cheaper.

Take out the latest £28, the £10 and even half the £30 rise on standard policy (so only rising more in line with inflation)  - £53+vat cheaper.

Many above £ figures hopefully quoted correctly from Ofgem cap / cap change summary letters.  See  - documents i think are worth reading if interested in breakdowns e.g.

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2024-02/Default Tariff Cap Letter - 1 April 2024 .pdf

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2024-05/Summary of changes to energy price cap 1 July to 30 September 2024.pdf


Links for other cap periods letters and other cap data - inc raw annual cap cost tables for suppliers- can be found at 

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-policy-and-regulation/policy-and-regulatory-programmes/energy-price-cap-default-tariff-policy/energy-price-cap-default-tariff-levels

Sure the Oct details will be added there soon after release dates.