S&p 500 - Bloomberg, 2007?

ChilliBob

Guys, I'm sure some of you noticed the pretty high drop in the S&p yesterday of 2.31%. Yep, obviously one needs to be prepared for such things and far worse... What confused me is the Bloomberg article..

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-24/s-p-500-snaps-longest-streak-without-a-2-decline-since-2007

(Yes, you can't read it all, but enough). I don't get this 2007 business.. The article seems to be contradicting its self no? Worst day since December 2022 - so, December 2022 must be equally bad, or worse, hence, = or greater than 2.31 drop.. So how can the index not have dropped more than 2% daily since 2007?

I'm clearly missing something, but not sure what! No other news outlets seem to have latched on to this 2007 business either.

To be clear, I'm not posting this because I'm alarmed/concerned about the drop, I'm posting because the article confuses me!

Any thoughts? 

gravel_2

The headline explains it pretty well...

NoMore

ChilliBob said:

The article seems to be contradicting its self no? Worst day since December 2022 - so, December 2022 must be equally bad, or worse, hence, = or greater than 2.31 drop.. So how can the index not have dropped more than 2% daily since 2007?

Not necessarily, December 2022 could have been a 1.9% drop and no other day since 2007 has dropped as much until now which has dropped more than that, hence it is the worst day since the last worst day.

ChilliBob

See that makes more sense. I do wonder why no other outlet has latched on to it. Quite an attention grabbing headline in my view. 

EthicsGradient

The market dropped by more than 2.3% in one day many times between 2007 and now, and the article implies it did so in Dec 2022 as well. The "record" that has ended is the number of days - the "streak" - it went without dropping at least 2% in one day - ie about 19 months. So in fact we know that, in the 15 years between 2007 and 2022, it must have dropped 2% at least 10 times. And it must have managed more than 19 months in the run up to 2007, or they wouldn't have picked 2007 to mention.

If that sounds obscure, that's why no other outlet said it. 

ChilliBob

EthicsGradient said:

The market dropped by more than 2.3% in one day many times between 2007 and now, and the article implies it did so in Dec 2022 as well. The "record" that has ended is the number of days - the "streak" - it went without dropping at least 2% in one day - ie about 19 months. So in fact we know that, in the 15 years between 2007 and 2022, it must have dropped 2% at least 10 times. And it must have managed more than 19 months in the run up to 2007, or they wouldn't have picked 2007 to mention.

If that sounds obscure, that's why no other outlet said it. 

Indeed obscure, and you have to admit, a bit odd to get your head around!.. And not especially useful! 

eskbanker

At the risk of gratuitous national stereotyping, if American financial analysis is anything like their sports equivalent, they'll dream up all sorts of convoluted statistics that nobody would ever dream of measuring!