New car estimated future value in four years??

BoxerfanUK

Thanks for all comments so far, good see others' perspectives.  Some figures to mull over....

Sportage 1.6T GDi 212 HEV GT-Line S Auto (2 wheel drive) in Lunar silver paint

Outright purchase (on the road): Dealer retail £41,340 discounted purchase price (Broker) £35,645

Personal lease: Deposit + Fee + first road tax = £5,001.91 48 monthly payments @ £370.16 pm
Total lease cost over 4 years @ 5000 miles per year = £22,399.43

So, buying outright at discounted purchase price of £35,645 and comparing the leasing cost of £22,399 after 4 years means that if this car (with 20K miles on the clock) is worth more than £13,245.57 at the end of 4 years then buying outright would be the better option.

Other factors to consider however, are that after getting rid of current car (13.5K) means I would have to fund the additional £22,145 from savings so that's four years savings interest lost.  However, this to be balanced against the fact that with a personal lease I'd still have to fund the deposit and 48 x monthly repayments of £370.00 pm

Any thoughts for or against welcome.

EDIT Just to add, taking on board comments about buying a two or three year old car.  Looking on autotrader average price for a 2022 model with same spec and 10 to 15K miles looking at 32-33K plus.

Mildly_Miffed

More than £22k to rent a car for 20k miles in four years.

£1.12 per mile before insurance, fuel, servicing, tax, etc etc.
And, at the end of four years, you toss them the keys back and walk away with nothing in your pocket but a few memories of a mid-size generic family car.

Just pause and think about that for a moment.

BoxerfanUK

Mildly_Miffed said:

More than £22k to rent a car for 20k miles in four years.

£1.12 per mile before insurance, fuel, servicing, tax, etc etc.
And, at the end of four years, you toss them the keys back and walk away with nothing in your pocket but a few memories of a mid-size generic family car.

Just pause and think about that for a moment.

Yes exactly, a point very well made when you put it that way, thanks.

Tbh if I outright purchase we may even keep for the full 7 years warranty period or more, but perhaps look at things at end of year 3 or 4.

molerat

facade said:

I can never get my head around leasing

The lease company must buy the car at an absolutely massive discount for leasing to be cheaper than you buying it outright.

At the end of the lease whoever owns the car wants to flog it off for it's residual value anyway, and to have made a small fortune out of your lease payments, so the lease return has to be more than (Purchase price - residual).

I can see that if by some miracle the effective interest on the lease is less than the interest you can get on the purchase price then you'd win if you kept the money in the bank/invested it and paid the lease, but someone, somewhere is either paying interest on a loan to fund the initial purchase of that vehicle, or losing interest/investment return on money they used to buy it to be able to lease it.

Is there some creative tax loophole that makes up the difference somehow?

In 2019 I bought a pre reg, 2 weeks old, built 2 months previous, list price £31K for £20.5K.  They were selling over 100 of them on their website.  How much did they pay for that car to make a profit at that sale price ?.  Shows what the lease companies must be paying.

Herzlos

BoxerfanUK said:

Mildly_Miffed said:

More than £22k to rent a car for 20k miles in four years.

£1.12 per mile before insurance, fuel, servicing, tax, etc etc.
And, at the end of four years, you toss them the keys back and walk away with nothing in your pocket but a few memories of a mid-size generic family car.

Just pause and think about that for a moment.

Yes exactly, a point very well made when you put it that way, thanks.

Tbh if I outright purchase we may even keep for the full 7 years warranty period or more, but perhaps look at things at end of year 3 or 4.

I think that'll be the differentiating factor - years 4,5,6 & 7 will be much cheaper if you buy outright because you won't be able to buy the lease car at the end of year 3.

Nebulous2

BoxerfanUK said:

Thanks for all comments so far, good see others' perspectives.  Some figures to mull over....

Sportage 1.6T GDi 212 HEV GT-Line S Auto (2 wheel drive) in Lunar silver paint

Outright purchase (on the road): Dealer retail £41,340 discounted purchase price (Broker) £35,645

Personal lease: Deposit + Fee + first road tax = £5,001.91 48 monthly payments @ £370.16 pm
Total lease cost over 4 years @ 5000 miles per year = £22,399.43

So, buying outright at discounted purchase price of £35,645 and comparing the leasing cost of £22,399 after 4 years means that if this car (with 20K miles on the clock) is worth more than £13,245.57 at the end of 4 years then buying outright would be the better option.

Other factors to consider however, are that after getting rid of current car (13.5K) means I would have to fund the additional £22,145 from savings so that's four years savings interest lost.  However, this to be balanced against the fact that with a personal lease I'd still have to fund the deposit and 48 x monthly repayments of £370.00 pm

Any thoughts for or against welcome.

EDIT Just to add, taking on board comments about buying a two or three year old car.  Looking on autotrader average price for a 2022 model with same spec and 10 to 15K miles looking at 32-33K plus.

Does it have to be a GT line S? 

Looking at a lease, a GT line is almost £100 a month less - saving you about £5k over 4 years. As far as I can see the main differences are a panoramic roof and wireless charging. These aren't features I'd be prepared to pay £5k for.... 

BoxerfanUK

Nebulous2 said:

BoxerfanUK said:

Thanks for all comments so far, good see others' perspectives.  Some figures to mull over....

Sportage 1.6T GDi 212 HEV GT-Line S Auto (2 wheel drive) in Lunar silver paint

Outright purchase (on the road): Dealer retail £41,340 discounted purchase price (Broker) £35,645

Personal lease: Deposit + Fee + first road tax = £5,001.91 48 monthly payments @ £370.16 pm
Total lease cost over 4 years @ 5000 miles per year = £22,399.43

So, buying outright at discounted purchase price of £35,645 and comparing the leasing cost of £22,399 after 4 years means that if this car (with 20K miles on the clock) is worth more than £13,245.57 at the end of 4 years then buying outright would be the better option.

Other factors to consider however, are that after getting rid of current car (13.5K) means I would have to fund the additional £22,145 from savings so that's four years savings interest lost.  However, this to be balanced against the fact that with a personal lease I'd still have to fund the deposit and 48 x monthly repayments of £370.00 pm

Any thoughts for or against welcome.

EDIT Just to add, taking on board comments about buying a two or three year old car.  Looking on autotrader average price for a 2022 model with same spec and 10 to 15K miles looking at 32-33K plus.

Does it have to be a GT line S? 

Looking at a lease, a GT line is almost £100 a month less - saving you about £5k over 4 years. As far as I can see the main differences are a panoramic roof and wireless charging. These aren't features I'd be prepared to pay £5k for.... 

Quite a number of differences!  The ‘3’ model fits in between GT line and the GT line S.

Nebulous2

BoxerfanUK said:

Nebulous2 said:

BoxerfanUK said:

Thanks for all comments so far, good see others' perspectives.  Some figures to mull over....

Sportage 1.6T GDi 212 HEV GT-Line S Auto (2 wheel drive) in Lunar silver paint

Outright purchase (on the road): Dealer retail £41,340 discounted purchase price (Broker) £35,645

Personal lease: Deposit + Fee + first road tax = £5,001.91 48 monthly payments @ £370.16 pm
Total lease cost over 4 years @ 5000 miles per year = £22,399.43

So, buying outright at discounted purchase price of £35,645 and comparing the leasing cost of £22,399 after 4 years means that if this car (with 20K miles on the clock) is worth more than £13,245.57 at the end of 4 years then buying outright would be the better option.

Other factors to consider however, are that after getting rid of current car (13.5K) means I would have to fund the additional £22,145 from savings so that's four years savings interest lost.  However, this to be balanced against the fact that with a personal lease I'd still have to fund the deposit and 48 x monthly repayments of £370.00 pm

Any thoughts for or against welcome.

EDIT Just to add, taking on board comments about buying a two or three year old car.  Looking on autotrader average price for a 2022 model with same spec and 10 to 15K miles looking at 32-33K plus.

Does it have to be a GT line S? 

Looking at a lease, a GT line is almost £100 a month less - saving you about £5k over 4 years. As far as I can see the main differences are a panoramic roof and wireless charging. These aren't features I'd be prepared to pay £5k for.... 

Quite a number of differences!  The ‘3’ model fits in between GT line and the GT line S.

So what are these differences, and what are they worth to you?

The 3 is £10 a month more than the GT line, some £86 a month less than the GT line S. 

Shedman

And don't forget the GT Line S having a list price of over £40k (regardless of what discount you get) will cost you an extra £410 a year in VED (£590 a year total) for 5 years over the GT Line or 3 variant if you purchase.  I'm assuming the lease you're looking at includes the VED in the monthly cost so over 4 years thats another nearly £2.5k you need to factor into your purchase vs lease calc.

DjangoUnchained

all lease deals are cons and at best an expensive way of hiring a car.... flame me.