Rishi announcement

gbhxu

Have had ESA and PIP medicals that were virtually the same.

Have even used my PIP report to successfully win an ESA appeal (Took less than 5 minutes.) So one "medical" could be used for UC and PIP.

I also think that section 1 of PIP Mobility - Planning and following journeys is more suited to the Daily Living Section.

NedS

the_pink_panther_2 said:

Blackout05 said:

Its what Labour have planned thats important, and thus far I dont think we really know much of what they have in store...

It's this last bit here that I wonder about.  They have been so quiet on the benefits front, it's a huge part of the budgeting part and also affects so many people.  I can't understand why they have been so silent on benefits when it affects so many.

Labour will face the same reality, that the current welfare bill is unaffordable. Simple truth is either the welfare bill must reduce in size, or taxes will remain high and/or need to rise to continue paying for it. After the Truss fiasco, I think even Labour will recognise they cannot borrow their way out of making a decision and Rachel Reeves is very well equipped for the task in hand having studied at Oxford University and the London School of Economics, and worked as an economist at the Bank of England.

The number of economically inactive people since 2020/Covid is having a huge effect. Not all of that is due to health conditions / disability - many have simply chosen to give up work so are no longer actively contributing to tax revenues.

Pushing up NMW also helps the exchequer, as it increases income tax revenues and reduces the amount of UC top up to those claimants in work, so I would expect to continue to see above inflation rises to NMW as it gradually moves the burden from the State to employers.

So we are likely to see a continued multi-pronged approach targeting health, those who have chosen to give up work and increasing NMW, all of which help alleviate the burden.

huckster

UK is not unique in facing these challenges. Other westernised economies have similar issues to tackle.

Given that employment is going to change continually due to advanced technology etc and that this will impact on number required in the labour market, plus increase numbers in part-time work, I suspect that Universal Credit will eventually be changed to Universal Basic Income. And this may happen within 10 to 20 years.

Muttleythefrog

Murphybear said:

huckster said:

These are just items the Tories want to feature in their manifesto for the election.

Given opinion poll stats say that the Tories only have a 1% chance of winning the election, I would not worry too much at this time.

The results of a recent voting intention poll conducted for this study found Labour leading the Conservatives by 43% to 23%.”

A long way from 1%

The 1% really is likely to accommodate significant change, tactical voting, local factors, Reform changing their policy of standing candidates across the board (which currently looks set to cost the Tories a lot of seats to labour/lib dems), the idea labour's support could indeed be lukewarm and potentially fickle, manifestos (Theresa May had a disastrous one not long ago after calling an early election due to significant polling lead) etc...there's possibly 6-7 months left before the real vote (2.5 years ago the Tories held polling lead and 1.5 years ago labour were 30% ahead due to Trussonomics and Johnson misdemeanours). Electoral Calculus (one of the low cost MRP regression pollsters) also puts them at around this 1% chance of being the major party of government... rather less winning a majority. But it feeds into the idea (as does the Yougov analysis) as to why Labour are keen not to make any mistakes and are reluctant, at least so far, to raise controversial or divisive policies when it will give the government (and its supporting press that have damaged Labour hopes quite late in election campaigns before) angles of attack.

As NedS points to they're going to face some difficult decisions on spending including regarding benefits... and people getting benefits I would suggest are likely labour or non voters. My impression very recently is that Labour strategy has shifted into targeting the voters in traditionally conservative stronghold subjects of things like defence and pensioners... mirroring some polling that shows Labour being more trusted on matters the Tories usually can bank on being the favoured party.

HillStreetBlues

I agree with mostly what's been said.
The welfare bill will be cut in the next Parliaments, it's just a matter of how much. Sadly my view is it will be worst for claimants than the Cameron/Osborne years.
Normally a Labour Shadow DWP Secretary would have voiced their dismay of what the Tory's are planning, but all we have has is silence I have never known a Shadow DWP Secretary to be so quiet.
If you wanted a Labour MP to push though hard benefits cuts, you would chose Liz Kendall, as when she stood for leader she was the only one supporting the benefit cap. When she was appointed it was a dark day for claimants as it told the direct of travel and how far it could go.
There will be Labour MPs who will rebell but as it's looking like a landslide those voices won't matter, as the Government will be able to push though what it wants.
After all it was a Labour government that introduced the current work capability assessment

MSE_James

Hi all 

We understand that the as we approach the election the news will be full of more and more policy proposals that - if they were ever implemented - might affect people directly, but please keep in mind the guiding principle of this board which is that it's about entitlement not policy. 

It's natural that people will want to ask the 'what if' questions about any potential changes, but we will have to close or remove threads that turn into more general political discussions.

So please keep as focussed as possible on helping each other with the practical matters of benefits entitlement under the rules as they stand now, whatever the news headlines of the day might say about what could change in future.

If rules do change, then MSE and this community will be here to help everyone navigate the next steps.