Budget today, any last minute predictions?

RogerPensionGuy

Here's a few of mine.

1. The LTA TFLS 1.073M will be increased, possibly to 1.2M, 1.4M or 1.6M.

2. Income tax bands of 20% and 40% will get moved up a bit.

3. Income tax of 20% will go to 19%.

4. The ISA 20K PA limit will go up to 25 or 30K but will include strings of some description. 

5. IHT will be adjusted up or fully removed. 

6. CGT and tax free interest on savings will be increased. 

7. VAT Threshold from 85 to 100K.

Twill be interesting to watch and see them setting bear trapps for Labour, they will then review popularity polls and if positive, election in May or if not positive, a few more trapps in autumn statement and election not long after. 

All in all, an interesting year and obviously the American show will impact the UK in various ways, I've got many boxes of popcorn and beer in the spare room to cope.

Anyone else care to make any guesses?

Cheers 🍻 

JoeCrystal

Duties on tobacco will go up again, maybe more on vaping and loose tobacco. 

Pat38493

I'm not sure it matters because all the parties know that reducing taxes is not the right thing to do in the current economic situation, and whatever they do is just an attempt to buy a few votes from gullible simpletons.  Whatever tax cuts happen now, the money will be taken back after the election one way or another no matter which party wins.

Also - they have already pretty much confirmed a cut in NI of 2%.

Above list looks more like something that you hope for rather than something likely to happen  

molerat

And meanwhile back on planet Earth ...............

Don't give up your day job to go into the predictions business

westv

This is what I think will happen











  

eskbanker

RogerPensionGuy said:

1. The LTA TFLS 1.073M will be increased, possibly to 1.2M, 1.4M or 1.6M.

2023 called, it wants its news back:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/abolishing-the-pensions-lifetime-allowance/abolition-of-the-lifetime-allowance

RogerPensionGuy

eskbanker said:

RogerPensionGuy said:

1. The LTA TFLS 1.073M will be increased, possibly to 1.2M, 1.4M or 1.6M.

2023 called, it wants its news back:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/abolishing-the-pensions-lifetime-allowance/abolition-of-the-lifetime-allowance

The issue is the stuck 268K TFLS, this needs to be unlocked, I suspect they will do it today.

QrizB

RogerPensionGuy said:

eskbanker said:

RogerPensionGuy said:

1. The LTA TFLS 1.073M will be increased, possibly to 1.2M, 1.4M or 1.6M.

2023 called, it wants its news back:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/abolishing-the-pensions-lifetime-allowance/abolition-of-the-lifetime-allowance

The issue is the stuck 268K TFLS, this needs to be unlocked, I suspect they will do it today.

And I don't.

By the end of the day, one of us will be correct.

RogerPensionGuy

Pat38493 said

I'm not sure it matters because all the parties know that reducing taxes is not the right thing to do in the current economic situation, and whatever they do is just an attempt to buy a few votes from gullible simpletons.  Whatever tax cuts happen now, the money will be taken back after the election one way or another no matter which party wins.

Also - they have already pretty much confirmed a cut in NI of 2%.

Above list looks more like something that you hope for rather than something likely to happen  

Quote "Whatever tax cuts happen now, the money will be taken back after the election one way or another no matter which party wins"

This is 100% spot on, we are looking at many decades of higher taxes and cuts in services, the UK age demography is heading into real troubled times, the cheese is being put in the traps today and we will see how they remove that cheese these next few years.

woolly_wombat

RogerPensionGuy said:

Quote "Whatever tax cuts happen now, the money will be taken back after the election one way or another no matter which party wins"

This is 100% spot on, we are looking at many decades of higher taxes and cuts in services, the UK age demography is heading into real troubled times, the cheese is being put in the traps today and we will see how they remove that cheese these next few years.

Jeremy Hunt is on his feet now, busy poisoning the well with giveaways left right and centre whilst gleefully claiming that Labour would raise taxes.

Hypocrisy writ large!

JoeCrystal

Minimal changes, then!  Hardly anything worth mentioning really!

Pension wise after skimming through Spring Budget 2024.

3.33 The government is also committed to supporting pensioner incomes by maintaining the triple lock.

4.28 Across the pensions industry as a whole, the best data suggests investment into UK equities has fallen to around 6%.  To improve data on current holdings, the government intends to bring forward requirements for Defined Contribution pension funds to publicly disclose the breakdown of their asset allocations, including UK equities, working closely with the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), who share responsibility for setting requirements for the market. The FCA will consult in the spring. The government will introduce equivalent requirements for Local Government Pension Scheme funds in England & Wales as early as April 2024. The government will review what further action should be taken if this data does not demonstrate that UK equity allocations are increasing.

Furthermore, it will work with the Local Government Pension Scheme to consider the role they could play in unlocking investment in new children’s homes.

LGPS admins are going to love that!

4.29 The government is working with the FCA and The Pensions Regulator (TPR) on the upcoming Value for Money (VFM) pensions framework. The framework will highlight where schemes are focusing on short-term cost savings at the expense of long-term investment outcomes, and where schemes’ current scale may be preventing them from offering value to savers. Where schemes are persistently offering poor outcomes for savers, the FCA and TPR will have the full range of regulatory powers available, and the government expects them to use the powers; these include closing a scheme to new employer entrants and, where necessary, winding up a scheme.

5.112 Pensions Lifetime Provider – The government has confirmed that it remains committed to exploring a lifetime provider model for Defined Contribution (DC) pension schemes in the long-term. The government will undertake continued analysis and engagement to ensure that this would improve outcomes for pension savers, and build on the foundations of reforms already underway, including the Value for Money Framework.