Energy Price Cap Predictions

Does anyone have an historical analysis of the Energy Price Cap predictions from Cornwall Insight, versus the actual Ofgem Energy Price Caps? I.e. How reliable are their predictions? Would be helpful in deciding whether to fix rates.


  • spot1034
    spot1034 Posts: 788
    First Anniversary First Post Name Dropper
    They get more accurate nearer to the actual date, but further out are mere guesses based on wholesale prices at that time. What else can they go on? In the case of the next price cap, we are now two thirds of the way through the assessment period and wholesale prices (somewhat inexplicably) keep falling, so if anything their prediction from even a month ago will be on the high side - assuming of-course that wholesale prices don't rocket in the next month due to world events or even very cold weather. 
  • I'm really wondering whether their predictions are actually any better than random. With no availbale data out there, I've no real reason to believe they are, even though they keep being quoted as the trusted prediction company. Maybe we're better to look out for this kind of information from those in the know?
    For example 'Octopus Energy: Bills will fall in April, say boss'.
    It's hard not to think that the various conflicts, around the world, will lead to an increase in the price cap in July.

  • Scot_39
    Scot_39 Posts: 1,670
    First Post First Anniversary Name Dropper
    edited 21 January at 1:51AM
    You can search for old cap announcements on CI own website.

    I just found last couple of sets and press releases of regular and last before Ofgem forecasting.

    As an example - In Nov23 for instance forecasting rates in 24 would rise in Jan and stay high.

    They are now 2-3 months later - forecasting c£300 lower levels just sub c£1600 iirc by July.

    They also - or at least used to produce longer term - c10 year forecasts.  I stopped reading them last winter as so variable update to update.

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