Time to fix given Red Sea latest?

inkydolphin

MSE are suggesting price falls on energy later in the year but is anyone considering fixing in light of current events in the Red Sea and associated uncertainties?

MultiFuelBurner

inkydolphin said:

MSE are suggesting price falls on energy later in the year but is anyone considering fixing in light of current events in the Red Sea and associated uncertainties?

No not really it's been a month now and next day pricing not affected for gas or electricity.

All leads to support price reductions in April for the price cap.

GingerTim

I think this all depends on your personal appetite for risk.

inkydolphin

GingerTim said:

I think this all depends on your personal appetite for risk.

Absolutely. Just interested to know if anyone is being swayed by escalations over the past few days 

debitcardmayhem

GingerTim said:

I think this all depends on your personal appetite for risk.

Moral of the tale, don’t go sailing in the red sea.

ArbitraryRandom

I'm not currently on a fix (and haven't seen one to tempt me) but I helped my parents fix last summer until I think July, as my mum was refusing to even consider have the heating on over this winter unless she 'knew' what it was going to cost... Time will tell which one of us is the winner there  

The only thing that might tempt me right know is the guaranteed £50 under cap (eon pledge)... but given it's Eon and they're responsible for one of the worst experiences I've had with an energy suppler, I'll stick with the squidly one!  

Gerry1

If you fix now you'll probably have to pay higher kWh rates through the rest of January, February and March, the coldest months when you use the most.  There will probably also be a hefty exit fee if you leave early.

If the rates do increase on 1st April it won't be so bad.  It'll already be summer time and the weather should be getting warmer so that will limit the damage.

Of course, it's all uncertain and it depends on your personal preferences and attitude to risk, but right now the published fixed deals don't look particularly attractive.

Fixed deals only offered to existing customers may be a bit better: I accepted one with Octopus because the rates and standing charge were the same as the then SVT, so that seems to have been a good move.  I did a similar thing with BG, paying slightly higher rates, but that turned out not to be cost effective.  Fortunately I was able to revert to the SVT without a penalty.

markin

With water levels in the panama canal at a 70 year low, ships were using the red sea.


Some random quotes from the web


"Dec 2023 — The US Energy Information Administration earlier this month said the Red Sea plays host to around 8% of global LNG shipments"

"Combined, the companies that have diverted vessels “control around half of the global container shipping market,”


"MSC, the world's largest container line, said its ships will not transit through the Suez Canal until it deems Red Sea passage to be safe....."

"18 Dec 2023 — 

"22 December  USA lng ships heading to Asia divert around" *(adding a month?)

"Dec 18, 2023 

LONDON (AP) — Oil and natural gas giant BP has joined the growing list of companies that have halted their shipments through the Red Sea because of the risk of attack from Yemen’s Houthi rebels, threatening a major trade route in what is expected to have global effects.

London-based BP said Monday that it has “decided to temporarily pause all transits through the Red Sea,” including shipments of oil, liquid natural gas and other energy supplies. Describing it as a “precautionary pause,” the company said the decision was under ongoing review but that it was prioritizing crew safety."

On-the-coast

I have a fairly high appetite for risk so i moved to octopus tracker at the start of july (for gas heating and electricity)
Over the past 6 months through to yesterday I think I've averaged about 2/3 of the price cap... so quids-in so far.  So no i wouldn't consider a fix at these times... when open market is sitting so far below the price cap.
But... i can afford it if things go badly wrong.

Kat78MFW

I fixed with OVO a few days ago after reading about the latest events in the Middle East. It's at rates slightly below the current price cap and I've fixed for a year. I decided to fix because we were on a 2 year cheap fix through all of the previous price hikes and it is a weight off the mind to know the unit price you are paying, even though this time it's so much higher.

TheElectricCow

I fixed a little lower a few months back when this business in the Middle East was just getting started, and in light of the most recent events I’m still comfortable with that decision. Probably wouldn’t fix at the current rates though especially with the uncertainty of where the energy markets will be this time next year. 

My household usage is weighted more towards summer than winter, so if the situation was to deteriorate over the next few months I know my rates are safe when I’ll need them. Otherwise predictions suggest I’ll be paying slightly above SVT, but not by enough that it’d be worth exiting the fix so a small premium for that safety net is worth it in my view.

If Tracker/Agile are still looking reasonably attractive when the fix is up and things are hopefully a bit more stable that’ll probably be what I go for next - still need to more thoroughly look into typical summer pricing on that front first though.