Don't take a Fix !?

MikeJXE

I fixed with Octopus in September, the fix was the same rates as the variable of the time so I win on the January rates 

From April to September I won't be using any Gas and my electric use is almost constantly 11kWh per week so I can't see me being any worse off 

I have no regrets 

Hattie627

JSHarris said:

MultiFuelBurner said:

Could be interesting for E7 rates if the predictions come true.

The main issue with E7 rates is that the connection between wholesale price and retail price for the off-peak period gets very seriously bent out of shape by the way suppliers tend to disproportionately  increase off-peak prices in winter to offset peak rates for marketing reasons.  This is clear from the wide variation in SVR E7 off-peak prices when compared to the variation in peak prices.

My quick and dirty look around the market over the past week shows that for my region the difference between the cheapest off-peak SVR E7 price and the most expensive one on my list is is about 46%.  The variation between the cheapest peak rate on that list and the most expensive peak rate is about 14%.

This makes estimating E7 rates challenging, as all the forecasts look at wholesale price variation.

Thank you, JSHarris, for an informative post, as always. As you say, there are many newcomers, like myself, to the topics discussed on this board for whom this is a completely new field. I can't think of any other place where beginners can gain such insights into how the energy supply industry works. It is great that you and others are willing to take the time and effort to share your extensive knowledge. I, for one, am very grateful.

EssexHebridean

MikeJXE said:

I fixed with Octopus in September, the fix was the same rates as the variable of the time so I win on the January rates 

From April to September I won't be using any Gas and my electric use is almost constantly 11kWh per week so I can't see me being any worse off 

I have no regrets 

This is pretty much me too - albeit my fix was a bit later than yours. 

Desmond_Hume

I also fixed at the start of November. Not a large risk appetite here. Single father, child here 5/7 days, remortgage coming up next year. The more I can keep stable and predict, the better for me.  

My previous fix was 2 years that ended in Sept this year. £85 a month that was so I totally missed the rocketing bills. Keeping that in mind, I convinced myself I’d still be quids in by fixing again (£140 is the new fixed DD for me if interested). 

TheElectricCow

MikeJXE said:

I fixed with Octopus in September, the fix was the same rates as the variable of the time so I win on the January rates 

From April to September I won't be using any Gas and my electric use is almost constantly 11kWh per week so I can't see me being any worse off 

I have no regrets 

I also got on that fix and despite that in all likelihood it may work out slightly more expensive, I’m quite happy with my decision knowing that my bills will definitely be affordable over my high usage periods.

I narrowly missed out on a good fix the first time around when prices started going up, and with the amount of uncertainty that was and still is in the world fixing at September’s rates was a safer bet than staying on the TOU or SVT tariffs that I’d been on over the last year.

If the predictions are accurate the savings from SVT wouldn’t be enough to cover the fix exit fees for me anyway so not a huge loss either way.

Scot_39

JSHarris said:

MultiFuelBurner said:

Could be interesting for E7 rates if the predictions come true.

The main issue with E7 rates is that the connection between wholesale price and retail price for the off-peak period gets very seriously bent out of shape by the way suppliers tend to disproportionately  increase off-peak prices in winter to offset peak rates for marketing reasons.  This is clear from the wide variation in SVR E7 off-peak prices when compared to the variation in peak prices.

My quick and dirty look around the market over the past week shows that for my region the difference between the cheapest off-peak SVR E7 price and the most expensive one on my list is is about 46%.  The variation between the cheapest peak rate on that list and the most expensive peak rate is about 14%.

This makes estimating E7 rates challenging, as all the forecasts look at wholesale price variation.

It's completely misleading to quote percentages against 2 different basis to support an argument. 

A trick used by many - including poor politicians - but easily seen through.  Because 46% vs 14% is fooling no one but the naive who clearly don't understand the pricing balance mechanism.

That 46% is I believe relative to c11.xp at UW if I remember your table elsewhere.  So say c6p

The 14% ? - but let's say c35.1p - my suppliers e7 Oct rate in EM - So say c5p.

6p vs 5p variation doesn't sound so unreasonable - does it.

Given the pricing is a see saw around a fixed price.
Based on one figure for nil and 1 for 4200kWh costed by Ofgem on presumption of a (near equal cf your own) 58:42 split  by users - hardly then at all urprising.

It's clear from your own and other posts some are annoyed that you are no longer benefitting from an outlier at edf - but they have other customers too.

Customers that have been overpaying on peak rate to balance the cheap sub 10p rate you and others - and those who accepted options to fix over last 6 or so months will continue to enjoy  - have been enjoying.

The average consumption split from Ofgems Nov 22 data analysis is a slightly higher 60 % day 40 % night for profile class 2 metering - not 58:42 for e7 presumption.

It's only right and proper suppliers look to all customers not just those with extreme - and by any measure your iirc 99.5% off peak is just that - usage when setting rates.

But the fact Ofgem cap is now 3m but published at annual consumption basis makes it unclear how tariff balances should be managed across quarters - given particular for those with electric heating will be using far more in winter quarters - but then not all profile class 2 customers have electric heating.

Winter average grid demand was c32GW - about 10GW higher than summer low months - I suspect a fair chunk of that will be storage style off peak heating - plus some additional EV winter demand.

Arguably it might be better to resolve your angst over that 46vs 14 % rate supplier variation if Ofgem fixed the day and night rates - just as they do for Single Rate electric meters on SVT.

But that would then remove your ability to switch for better deals to match your own balance.

And would have seen those - and let's face it - in many cases that is only reason why many people switched to EDF last year in the first place - unable to take advantage.

Not just in Eastern but in the other regions - where the cheap rates disappeared much sooner.

So for clarity what is your absolute pence range - not percentage - peak vs off peak on Jan prices ?

JSHarris

I can't see how this can be seen as misleading in any way at all, TBH, seems perfectly valid to me.  I've spent time getting tariff rates from a handful of suppliers, all SVT E7 tariffs for my region (Southern).  I picked the highest and lowest out of the half dozen for that comparison, but let's just look at EDF and UW.  The  peak and off-peak tariffs are:

EDF peak = 35.994p/kWh

EDF off-peak 16.433p/kWh

UW peak = 39.787p/kWh

UW off-peak = 11.199p/kWh

Dividing the UW off-peak price by 100 to get 1% gives 0.11199.  Dividing the EDF off-peak price by this gives 146.736, therefore the EDF off-peak price is 46% more expensive than the UW one.

Doing the same for the peak price comparison between these two suppliers:  EDF peak divided by 100 gives 0.35994.  Dividing the UW peak price by that gives 110.538, therefore the UW peak price is roughly 10.5% more expensive than the EDF peak price.

JSHarris

Just tried this comparison with some of the others in the list to see if the pattern of disproportionately inceasing the off-peak tariff holds true.  Next cheapest and next most expensive SVT E7 tariffs are Sainsburys and Octopus.

Octopus peak = 36.810p/kWh

Octopus off-peak 15.310p/kWh

Sainsbury's peak = 35.994p/kWh

Sainsbury's  off-peak = 12.895p/kWh

Same calcs as above  shows the Octopus off-peak price to be 18.7% higher than the Sainsbury's off-peak price, and the Sainsbury's peak price to be 2.3% higher than the Octopus peak price, so exactly the same trend, a disproportionately large increase in the off-peak price.

FWIW I was not on some sort of "outlier" tariff, I think you are confusing me with another poster, @Scot_39

Scot_39

So that's c5.2p more off peak vs c3.8p less peak.

That's a lot closer than 46% vs 14% makes it seem.

It's quite simple to hit Ofgem cap the two have to mix to meet a total cap price.

One goes high the other goes low.

And the Ofgem presumption is for 58:42 split for those on e7 only iirc - at least annually - if not quarterly.  So day variation in pence lower night variation in pence - as assumption is using more day units of them. 

Essentially arguably the differences are balanced on paying near 6 3.8s (5.8x3.8= c22p) to offset over 4 5.2s (4.2*5.2= c21.8p) for every 10 units used at that presumed split.

Draw the average unit price charts - they probably intersect at near nominal presumed usage.

The low off peak variant will be to your advantage - the high off peak variant to low off peak users.

The only way to fix exactly quarterly is to fix day and night rates as per SR rates.

And you really wouldn't be happy as a high off peak user if Ofgem did so with figures somewhere in the middle - say 13.8p off peak - when you can save by switching to 11.2p currently.

Not everyone on multirate meters have batteries, night storage heating, solar or ev etc to gain from low off peak rates.  As above the latest Ofgem data looks like 40% night rate is new UK average.

Just saw another user quoting 21% night on e7 for instance on another thread.  They would be cheaper on EDF than UW. You cheaper on UW. 

Arguably your angst on differences, just market competition working to suit different customers needs.

Scot_39

JSHarris said:

Just tried this comparison with some of the others in the list to  increase in the off-peak price.

FWIW I was not on some sort of "outlier" tariff, I think you are confusing me with another poster, @Scot_39

Sorry @JSHarris - must have confused you with another forumite quoting their very high off peak usage split.