Price trends for flights going back years

Guss

Does anyone know if there is a online historic flight tracker so I can identify what the typical price trends are for particular times of the year. Ideally it would go back years. Prices seem to fluctuate even when coming up to busy times like Christmas. They don't just seem to go up steadily.

I'm trying to book a flight to Marrakech and am trying to judge when I should jump in.
Thanks

retiredbanker1

I'm a cynic.

Martin Lewis on his live show this week said he thought BA/Virgin Atlantic have a sale somewhere between Xmas and New year.
I have flight trackers on flights I am interested in next year -- Virgin have increased prices now only no doubt to reduce them again in their 'sale'.

So my advice - book when you are happy with the price - if they then reduce well so what - if they are more expensive you will have saved money.

twopenny

A long time ago an agent posted the best times of year for lower prices. Good of him.

But things have changed and I'm not sure there is a 'best time' any more.

School holidays have been staggered so the higher costs have spread.

I used to travel in mid to late November, first week in December was cheapest before the Christmas rises but others seem to have cottoned onto this.

Last cheap flight I got was 6 weeks in advance to fly back on Christmas Day - no one wants to fly at that time. It was great, empty airports so quick though and empty roads home.

So I think you need to look for a historic prices (if there is such a thing) I'd suggest looking more recently at the current trends.

You could sign up for emails when there are sales. A friend of mine lives nearish Gatwick and picks up some great deals on sales because she can go direct to the airport, not travel and hotels involved.

phatbear

Prices tend to fluctuate with demand so history has no direct correlation unless you have the data to factor in random factors such as popularity. 

Another factor when considering pricing is competition for routes, again another factor that would have to be considered, for example flights to bangkok are on the up since BA pulled out and HKG lost virgin therefore other airlines can charge a premium as people still want to travel there.

prices also reflect current world events, the situ in israel, the situ in ukraine as acess to russian airspace is almost non-exsistant therefore flights have travel further to get to their destination which in turn means more fuel which of course means prices go up.

in conclusion, as someone else has already stated just find a price you are happy with and pay it and dont check again.

Westin

Are the flights between the UK and Marrakesh that volatile in pricing fluctuations?  With RyanAir, EasyJet, TUI, Jet2 all flying to RAK I would have thought a reasonably suitable fare was always available.   If you see a price you like just book it.

Doshwaster

To be honest, the pandemic has messed up the travel industry so much that I doubt there would be much value in looking at historic price trends.

phatbear

i know its been a while but it dawned on me that a few years ago i use to go to NY on the same date for a few years on the bounce so dug out old emails etc, im a terrible hoarder when it comes to emails, and there was never any rationale about the pricing, i had even booked trips on almost the same day, for arrival on a specific date and they prices were always different, sometime by a few pound and sometimes by hundreds. 

Another metric to consider is the ever changing rates of APD, especially if you aren't accustomed to walking all the way to the back of the plane. 

zagfles

Things may have changed since COVID but the general rule of thumb was that flights to business destinations get more expensive the later you book but flights to tourist destinations get cheaper the later you book, up to about 1 or 2 weeks before when they get more expensive.

Skyscanner used to have a tool where you can put a particular route in but it now redirects here, not sure how useful this is:

https://www.skyscanner.net/news/best-time-to-book-savings-generator

jimi_man

Google flights is pretty good for weighing up the options. 

Westin

OP has not logged back in since posting so I think we can let the thread die.

tightauldgit

Westin said:

Are the flights between the UK and Marrakesh that volatile in pricing fluctuations?  With RyanAir, EasyJet, TUI, Jet2 all flying to RAK I would have thought a reasonably suitable fare was always available.   If you see a price you like just book it.

Pretty much the cheapest time to book a flight is when they are first available and prices will only creep up over time - there will be the occasional discount and offer so if I knew for example that I wanted to fly Wizz Air I would wait for one of their 15% off everything deals but yes the biggest determinant of price is going to be the dates you want to fly on so find dates that work for you at a reasonable price and book them. 

I doubt historical data is going to give much away as most of the pricing models are going to be dynamic and algorithm based anyway.