Octopus Budget Forecast

cj1973

Does anyone else who is with Octopus energy for dual fuel keep track of their energy usage versus the Octopus Budget Forecast tool? I have been looking and I believe their budget forecast tool is predicting 30% higher than my actual usage and their Direct Debit changing option will not let me reduce the direct debit to my own prediction based on usage as it isn't in line with their forecast. I currently have £385 sitting in my energy account and before the end of the month that will become £583.Yet I cannot have any of it refunded due to their budget forecast. My current DD is £198pm but they want £206. Their prediction for the next 12 months with "crystal ball mode" on is £2456, if I deduct the balances then that leaves £1873 to pay for the year which would be a monthly DD of £156.09, a significant difference to the £206 they want me to pay. I have emailed Octopus to see what they say but I am interested in everyone elses experience. Thanks in advance for your comments. 

ArbitraryRandom

30% seems quite a lot, but perhaps now is the wrong time of year to be changing? 

Last year was very mild, and this year has already seen more extremes of weather (el nino) so could easily go either way...

For what it's worth, some have had success talking to customer services - dropping their DD to a nominal amount on the basis that if the bill isn't covered by the balance they can make a manual payment by card for the difference. 

Isoei

In my experience the budget forecast varies a lot. In the space of about a month, after they increased my DD saying I needed to pay ~£150 pm, they're now saying ~£100 on the forecast. You can set your DD yourself in the app, which is what I did to bring it back to a manageable level, but if they're not allowing you to do that and you're looking to gain your credit back, then I would definitely contact them. I've always found them helpful and they usually have replied to me within the week by email. Definitely worth contacting them, I would think

MikeJXE

Yes I do and for me it is very accurate.

I am in credit by £401 and I am happy about that with winter on the way. If I am not warm my heating goes on at 20, overnight 15.

I have peace of mind and not worried how cold winter will be 

From February I was paying £100 per month now reduced to £70 and withdrew £250

I read my meters weekly and put into my spreadsheet, at the end of the month I give the readings to Octopus, I already know what the bill will be and once I adjust the calorific value my calculations are within  a couple of pence.

I am a low user 1 person 1 bed flat, I don't expect my total bill for the year to be more than £700

In the photo the column headed Month is my calculation,  headed Actual is the bill, Forecast is Octopus prediction

Come May I will be asking for some of the surplus and I have no doubt I will get it

molerat

It might work if they have a solid use history for you, if not it is all over the place.  My granddaughter is showing a rec £220 DD, she is currently paying £120.  Next Oct they are predicting a use of £170, this Oct her use was actually £86 with the heating on - way less than their Jun & Jul forecasts for next year.

MikeJXE

molerat said:

It might work if they have a solid use history for you, if not it is all over the place.  My granddaughter is showing a rec £220 DD, she is currently paying £120.  Next Oct they are predicting a use of £170, this Oct her use was actually £86 with the heating on - way less than their Jun & Jul forecasts for next year.

They don't have a history on me I only joined them in February this year

I do have usage history over the last 3 years and when I joined Octopus I told them what my annual usage was and what DD i wanted to pay 

No arguments they accepted everything I told them, I have not had a problem at all 

MultiFuelBurner

MikeJXE said:

molerat said:

It might work if they have a solid use history for you, if not it is all over the place.  My granddaughter is showing a rec £220 DD, she is currently paying £120.  Next Oct they are predicting a use of £170, this Oct her use was actually £86 with the heating on - way less than their Jun & Jul forecasts for next year.

They don't have a history on me I only joined them in February this year

I do have usage history over the last 3 years and when I joined Octopus I told them what my annual usage was and what DD i wanted to pay 

No arguments they accepted everything I told them, I have not had a problem at all 

They will have the energy history usage though for the property.

MikeJXE

MultiFuelBurner said:

MikeJXE said:

molerat said:

It might work if they have a solid use history for you, if not it is all over the place.  My granddaughter is showing a rec £220 DD, she is currently paying £120.  Next Oct they are predicting a use of £170, this Oct her use was actually £86 with the heating on - way less than their Jun & Jul forecasts for next year.

They don't have a history on me I only joined them in February this year

I do have usage history over the last 3 years and when I joined Octopus I told them what my annual usage was and what DD i wanted to pay 

No arguments they accepted everything I told them, I have not had a problem at all 

They will have the energy history usage though for the property.

That maybe the case but the previous tenant was a young man at work all day and probably didn't feel the cold like I do or cooked, previous to him it was empty for a time.

I'm just stating Octopus do listen and take notice 

Unlike OVO who had my history from SSE but would not take that into account and treated me as a new customer in the same property and doubled the direct debit. 

Possetjohn

Hello,

I am with Octopus energy and I received an email last night say they were putting my direct debit up from £180 to £199.11. I kept pretty detailed information on consumption but I have smart meters sending information to Octopus. On 7th February I had a credit balance of £371.54 and if the consumptions to the 7th May are similar to last year I estimate the balance will be about £170. Their balance tool is still using consumption figures which are too high, but it is now much better than it was in 2022. Generally though I have to applaud Octopus on the accuracy of their billing and excellent customer service. 

The interesting thing about their balance forecast tool is their model is forcing you to be credit just before they take the direct debit payment. As my payments are normally taken around the 27th and the bill is on the 7th of the next month that means I will be about one month direct debit in credit always. I was always under the impression you should have a zero balance at the bill at the end of April/early May. If you extrapolate this across all of Octopus' customers it is a lot of money in their bank accounts.

Interested in anyone's thoughts on this. 

SAC2334

I m on Octopus Tracker which for me is going up in a few days time about 14% electric and 5% gas so maybe they will "try " and increase my direct debit at least 10 % .
Personally  I will be the judge of what my direct debit will be  as I know better than Octopus think I will use .I was £770 in credit last January paying £100 a month and they were still suggesting it should be £147 a month .Maybe thats about right for their Flexible tariff but nowhere near correct for Tracker 

pete-20-11

Possetjohn said:

Hello,

I am with Octopus energy and I received an email last night say they were putting my direct debit up from £180 to £199.11. I kept pretty detailed information on consumption but I have smart meters sending information to Octopus. On 7th February I had a credit balance of £371.54 and if the consumptions to the 7th May are similar to last year I estimate the balance will be about £170. Their balance tool is still using consumption figures which are too high, but it is now much better than it was in 2022. Generally though I have to applaud Octopus on the accuracy of their billing and excellent customer service. 

The interesting thing about their balance forecast tool is their model is forcing you to be credit just before they take the direct debit payment. As my payments are normally taken around the 27th and the bill is on the 7th of the next month that means I will be about one month direct debit in credit always. I was always under the impression you should have a zero balance at the bill at the end of April/early May. If you extrapolate this across all of Octopus' customers it is a lot of money in their bank accounts.

Interested in anyone's thoughts on this. 

I believe there is a requirement to always be in credit in the terms and conditions 

so you need to be in sufficient credit before the dd is applied and before the bill is taken. 

You can change the dd date I think, if that helps with cash flow. 

Yeah, I think around April/May time be near zero and then the balance should start to build up again ready for next winter. 

There is the option of variable direct debits if you don’t want a fixed monthly price, just pay for what you use each month and keep some money in savings ready for the bigger winter bills.

sadly I can’t use the balance forecaster as I am on a smart tariff for electric, have a gas tracker tariff and export solar - it would be just too complicated for them to work out. I’m struggling to work it out too, I’m hoping a direct debit of £25 a month will be about right, anything better than that a bonus (but obviously a big “capital” expense in the purchase of the solar and battery!)