Premium Bonds

podine

Hi, What do Forumites think when purchasing Bonds. Say you want £15000. do you think you'd have a better chance buying 3 X £5000. or one block of £15000?
I'd be interested in your views.

Eirambler

I don't see how it would make any difference, either way it's £15,000 surely? After that it's just the luck of the draw.

eskbanker

It makes no difference buying one large block or multiple smaller ones....

BooJewels

When I first bought some 18 months ago, I opted for smaller batches, not wanting all my numbers bunched together.  My head said it probably shouldn't make any difference, but there was no harm spreading them out over a couple of weeks (EA interest rates were much lower than they are now).

After cashing £30k in for fixes, I now have 2 batches each of £10k and 1 of £2k bought more recently - that latter batch hasn't had any winners at all yet.  The winners have come pretty evenly from the 2 main batches (7 winners of £550 and 8 winners of £475) - two winners in August were only a few numbers apart.  So my tiny straw poll suggests that it probably doesn't actually make any difference.

Sg28

It 100% makes no difference at all. It would be mathematically impossible for it to be any other way. 

(Unless you believe the conspiracy theories its rigged)

PixelPound

There are those who cash in old bonds to get a single block of bigger bonds. Maybe they prefer to check numbers manually and it's easier to remember a single range?

It makes no difference at all, but its psychological. A bigger single range would appear to give more chance of them being in that range and less chance of narrowly missing out. I'm surprised there isn't an app that shows near misses (ala lottery), as whilst missing by 1 is the same as missing by decades people feel the thrill of the "almost won".

There is the conspiracy that newer bonds win more often. so cashing in and buying a bigger new bond falls to that mindset.

Sg28

nic_c said:

There are those who cash in old bonds to get a single block of bigger bonds. Maybe they prefer to check numbers manually and it's easier to remember a single range?

It makes no difference at all, but its psychological. A bigger single range would appear to give more chance of them being in that range and less chance of narrowly missing out. I'm surprised there isn't an app that shows near misses (ala lottery), as whilst missing by 1 is the same as missing by decades people feel the thrill of the "almost won".

There is the conspiracy that newer bonds win more often. so cashing in and buying a bigger new bond falls to that mindset.

The "almost won" thrill is how lotteries and slot machines use weaknesses in human psychology to get people addicted. The colourful graphical representations of the RNG in slot machines will regularly show a near win, just to keep you playing.