Flexible Octopus versus Fixed 12 month!

cherry76

Currently on flexible octopus direct debit increased to £105 used to pay £71 on fixed tariffs which ended. Shall I fix for another 12months? Interested to know what others with Octopus are doing? Thanks

[Deleted User]

As I have posted before. This is one solely for you. If you are risk averse then go for a fix. If you are happy to take medium risk then go for a variable tariff. If you are happy with taking a measured risk, then look at Octopus Agile and Tracker. On Tracker, if wholesale prices rocket you might have to wait two weeks to get off the tariff.

Scot_39

Cornwall Insights are forecasting Jan price cap higher than Oct (back to July type levels on unit rates  - but disguised in total by Octobers reduced TDCVs) before falling again next spring summer, and rising come Q4/ Oct.

This link gives their next years Q1-Q4 24 forecasts based on late Aug market prices - there may be more recent versions.

https://www.cornwall-insight.com/predictions-and-insights-into-the-default-tariff-cap/

That set of Q1-Q4 24 shows variations of just over 5% on duel fuel totals at best.

Which is of the order of the savings offered by some of the best fixes posted here vs current July cap svt - some earlier versions were at svt or just above.

But that doesn't mean those prices will happen - they have been wrong in the past even over just the quarter / let alone year ahead and changed even more dramatically in medium term (they did a series of 1-10 year forecasts too - but so wildly different quarter on quarter I stopped reading them c Feb release time).  They are just predictions.

[But oil already drifting higher since those prices announced - Brent c$10 / over 10% since the 24 Aug date used by CI in link above - c$20 above June July lows - which I suspect might well take the edge of some of those forecast reductions next year.  Gas and oil not explicitly linked, and although we have diesel generator farms - they dont really feature in pricing as very small share even if used - but in past gas prices have tracked each other loosely. But gas if anything been far more volatile e.g. recent Australian lpg strike threat actual strike spikes etc.

And double peaks in energy linked inflation have been observed after past energy crisis like those in "recent" past ( 70s, 80s and 90s). IMF already warning Western govts to be wary of repeating past false optimism in their fiscal policy decisions (not that their predictions particularly reliable)]


But back to CI.
Note CI Q4 rising again - perhaps just seasonal demand. 

And Q2 Apr 1st - their predicted standing charge rise - 8p electric, less so 1p gas - an issue particularly for low users.

But as above - fix or not - that's very much a personal risk / comfort decision.

IIRC the early versions of Octopus fix had "hard" exit fees - unlike other suppliers that allowed internal tariff switches for free - and with some that included to svt - so essentially external switches too.

But Octopus at one stage were charging slightly below Ofgem on SVT deals anyway (c 4% on combined SC - do they still ?)