Future of savings rates over the next 2 years

mobfant

Wondering what people think (best guess) of the direction of easy / notice accounts over the next couple of years is going to be.

My guess is that the BoE increase rates by .25 on Thursday, then in the subsequent 4-6 weeks we see easy access rates and 90-day rates go up by maybe .2, but 1 year ish rates stay broadly the same as they are now. 

And then the BoE probably doesn't change the rates for a while and savings rates stay broadly the same over the next 18 months.

Does this sound reasonable? Anyone have different views?

Wheres_My_Cashback

7 MPC meets prior to July 24 with 3/4 increases to come in Base.

Rates to continue to rise to 6%-6.25% by summer 2024 where they will plateau for a while before dropping to 4-4.50% by summer 2025.

EA / Notice a/c to surpass 6% by March 24

Swipe

Too tough to call IMO.

MiserlyMartin

If we have a bad recession they may cut in in early 2025 perhaps to your 4% by the summer

ZeroSum

I believe the current market expectation is that the base rate will increase another 50 base points by March then slowly drop to about 3.5 - 3.75% over next 5 years.

However, a number of unexpected things could happen to put a spanner in the works to change things in either direction.

nic_c

The rates for one and two year fixes are about same at places offering both. That would suggest the thought is we get 50 base point higher and stick before slowly start to decrease from 2025. Sub 4% is probably 4-5 years away. 

25_Years_On

"Anything can happen in the next half hour."

subjecttocontract

 I think a Labour win at the GE will likely affect interest rates adversely for mortgage holders, increase taxes and hit us all in our pockets but a Labour win is pure fiction at the moment.

Swipe

On the radio they are now talking about a pause on any hikes.

trickydicky14

25_Years_On said:

"Anything can happen in the next half hour."

Stingray!!!

Newbie_John

I think the only thing for sure is that they won't go to 10% and won't drop to 1% - everything in-between is possible.
Look at any previous predictions back in Feb 2023 for BoE rates, expectations where to peak at around 4% and then drop by end of the year. Very similar situation now - so I really doubt any predictions tbh.

The best 1 year fixed is 6.2%, will it go up? Possibly but not for much more. Will it be higher in 2 years time? I doubt, how low will it get? 2,3,4,5,6 - pick your number :-)