No bids for offshore wind in government auction

Scot_39

markin said:

They could have named their price? But headline like 'new wind 2x more expensive than HPC' would not be good for future business.

If HPC short for Hinkley C nuclear - its CfD 2012 price was 12p without Sizewell, just sub 10p with Sizewell go ahead iirc.

And tge lattter, which was cheaper than renewables in CfD auction in 2015 - which were also upto 12p

The bigger problem is now the 2022 auction price comparisons when FOS wind of £37.35/MWh 2012 basis - which media reports suggested c£44 as of 2022 indexing. 

If the 150  / £129 is more in line with SSE comments is what they want that's depending on if talking 2012  - at nearly 3.5x times - r 2022 actual c 3x - that's quite a big mark up in a year.

But at least 1 supplier are now saying they aren't willing to proceed at that 2022 deal rate.  Tough - hope the govt sues them fornon delivery  - if license terms allow.

DougMLancs

spot1034 said:

I've just heard a news report giving today's 'record' temperature as measured at Heathrow Airport. Given that airports are heat islands with lots of concrete and big buildings absorbing and storing heat, and you then have the jet engines contributing extra blasts of hot air I can't help but wonder whether the temperature in a field in open countryside a few miles away from the airport might be a more sensible comparison with historic data. 

Before Heathrow today, RHS Garden Wisley was the warmest place of the year so far on Thursday (32.6C) and quite often sets high temperature records. You can’t get much greener than around there and it’s 14 miles from Heathrow. 

Chrysalis

[Deleted User] said:

Another energy story in the news today:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66749344

Is this good news or bad news?

Bad news as I assume the government will have to make the terms more favourable (which will mean higher pricing).

Not sure why there is no backup plan to just do it state owned if the private sector is not interested.

Farway

Chrysalis said:

[Deleted User] said:

Another energy story in the news today:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66749344

Is this good news or bad news?

Bad news as I assume the government will have to make the terms more favourable (which will mean higher pricing).

Not sure why there is no backup plan to just do it state owned if the private sector is not interested.

Presumably using same master planners as HS2 or Cross Rail?

I think you have your answer right there

[Deleted User]

Chrysalis said:

[Deleted User] said:

Another energy story in the news today:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66749344

Is this good news or bad news?

Bad news as I assume the government will have to make the terms more favourable (which will mean higher pricing).

Not sure why there is no backup plan to just do it state owned if the private sector is not interested.

For too long politicians and have seduced the public into thinking that renewable energy is cheap whereas the truth lies in this statement:

Are wind farms Subsidised in the UK?

‘The government grants wind-power operators fixed prices to sell electricity for 15 years. If the market price is below the contract price, the government subsidizes the difference. But if the market is higher, the wind farms pay money back to the government. Until recently, the mechanism acted purely as a subsidy.’ Source: Bloomberg

You can see why companies like SSE and Vattenfall are not prepared to commit to a contract at £44MWh which doesn’t even cover their build costs when market prices could well come in higher. They would just end up losing even more money.

Chrysalis

Well we know its cheaper to some degree as when wind is high prices go down, but I guess the government went a bit extreme? Or the companies have decided they want to sell higher moving forward, perhaps recognising they will need to recover revenue if gas pricing becomes a history on electric supply.

Scot_39

All wind in uk is not CfD - only the 2015 auction onwards.

Which had iirc a max £120/MWh at 2012 baseline (indexing every x months with inflation) - for short delivery FOS wind.

Edit

The renwables levy (windfall tax) that came in on wind only applied to non CfD contracted supply - as they were the ones being uprated to match the far higher gas costs and being allowed to hold onto it (due to grid auction settlement basis in UK)

But now market rates dipping, the CfD linked cosrts are once again increasing our bills - £10 last quarter in July Ofgem cap, £15 Oct Ofgem cap.

And the greenwashed hype over the 2022 auction rates of £37.35 for same - are now looking like they are unsustainable. 

With at least one supplier (so far?) - Vattenfal AB - already publicly deciding to not progress with one of the 2022 auction sites at that rate - c1.4 GW at Norfolk Boreas phase 1. 

And the CfD pricing is just wholesale at land fall. 
Its not the true cost - as there simply isn't the existing grid infrastructure to take that supply and deliver it to market from many of these sites.

So we need multi billion pound projects like egl1, 2 aproved and egl3,4 in planning.  And others as well.
To take energy from Sottish Islands 100s of miles to Peterhead to supply egl2 link, and egl2 link itself 350 miles more to Drax Yorkshire - just one example.  That's 3 hvdc links, some undersea, some under land and 100+ miles of pylon upgrades just for one remote set of new sites in that geographical location.  

All adding to our bills.

And if had hit total of auctions - in a market where achieving below current average output let alone forecast future given move offshore to remote higher mean wind locations - means UK grid generation increasingly regularly at overcapacity. 

That just means - unless contract basis changed - millions or billions more in restriction compensation - paying facilities - renewables and fossil at differing times - to exist but not output.

And which in case of above billions for egls -  if SNP has its way will be from a foreign - one often openly hostile to UK well WM govt - country.

Hardly rest of UK energy security planning.

Grizzlebeard

spot1034 said:

.....

I've just heard a news report giving today's 'record' temperature as measured at Heathrow Airport. Given that airports are heat islands with lots of concrete and big buildings absorbing and storing heat, and you then have the jet engines contributing extra blasts of hot air I can't help but wonder whether the temperature in a field in open countryside a few miles away from the airport might be a more sensible comparison with historic data. 

Actually Kew Gardens is hotter than Heathrow by 0.2°C in mean annual temperature (15.4°C v 15.2°C).

The "Urban Heat Island Hotspot" attributed to Heathrow is really an "Urban Myth"

Seasonal variations at Heathrow relative to other UK Weather Stations are not statistically significant and are dominated by distance from the coastline (Met office).