October 2023 Octopus Fix

beyondthestars

Should I wait until October to fix with Octopus energy? I believe the cap will be changing then. Any views  on this ? 

la531983

Fixes available now wont be the same as the ones available in October.

What_time_is_it

I'm in a similar position. The question is, do you think the fix being offered after the price cap is announced (this month) will be higher or lower than the fix being offered now? Q1 price cap predictions (the quarter where you will use the most energy) seem to be rising again now.

beyondthestars

Thank you @What_time_is_it you worded it better 

matt_drummer

What_time_is_it said:

I'm in a similar position. The question is, do you think the fix being offered after the price cap is announced (this month) will be higher or lower than the fix being offered now? Q1 price cap predictions (the quarter where you will use the most energy) seem to be rising again now.

It's unlikey to be significantly different to what it is now.

How much gas and electricity do you use a year?

If the price of electricity went down by 1p/kWh and you use 3,000 kWh a year, then you would save £30.

There's not much to gain by not fixing.

If the price went up by 10p/kWh then it would cost you £300 at the same usage level.

There's far more to lose and if there was a miracle and prices crashed then your only risk is the £75 per fuel exit fee.

I assume you don't think prices will fall back to the levels they were two or three years ago, do you?

I find it hard to understand why you are even considering not fixing.

beyondthestars

Because the price cap could fall in October 

matt_drummer

beyondthestars said:

Because the price cap could fall in October 

By how much do you think it could fall?

There's very little to gain.

What if the current fixes are unavailable in October and prices jump significantly?

There's virtually nothing to gain by waiting in my opinion.



Maybe you can tell us how much the price cap may fall in October and how much you think you could potentially save?

spot1034

beyondthestars said:

Because the price cap could fall in October 

That would be the price cap for three months, whilst a fix would be for twelve. A cursory glance at wholesale prices for the period between January and March would suggest (as do CI in their statement this morning) that the fall in October is most likely to be reversed in January, and right now it looks likely that prices will rise in January by more than they will fall in  October - i.e.  to a level higher than they are right now. Of-course that could change, but as others have said it is hard to see prices coming down very much over the next year, whereas there are several factors which could precipitate a sharp rise.

matt_drummer

It seems likely that fixes towards the end of the year will be more expensive than they are now.

I still can't understand why anybody considering fixing now would wait.

If you are worried enough to fix you have far more to lose by waiting than you have to gain.

What_time_is_it

I'm increasingly thinking that you are right, @matt_drummer

westv

I decided to take the fix. Not because I had any worries about bills but because I think I may end up positive over the 12 months compared to the SVR. If the SVR ends up being a lot lower than fine, maybe a resolution in the Ukraine war might lead to that.