Advisability of buying electric car at this point in time

Petriix

I saw someone selling a battery owned 40kWh Zoe for £8k on SpeakEV. That's a bargain! Now is a great time to buy a used EV. However, EVs still only make sense for people with cheap home charging which means a driveway and reliable smart meter data.

[Edit] Definitely don't get advice about EVs from a fossil fuel car garage. They have no knowledge of EVs and a vested interest in keeping people in the old technology they rely on for their income.

WellKnownSid

Petriix said:

I saw someone selling a battery owned 40kWh Zoe for £8k on SpeakEV. That's a bargain! Now is a great time to buy a used EV. However, EVs still only make sense for people with cheap home charging which means a driveway and reliable smart meter data.

[Edit] Definitely don't get advice about EVs from a fossil fuel car garage. They have no knowledge of EVs and a vested interest in keeping people in the old technology they rely on for their income.

I watched a video of a ten year old 22kWh Zoe being delivered to its new home.  75 mile range - the guy comfortably did 135 miles with a single 30 minute stop - there are lots of apps to help you plan.  Range was spot on, battery was still at 88% state of health, and it was well equipped for a ten year old run around.

If the local garage hasn't bothered to get its technicians trained up on EVs then they probably aren't even qualified to change a tyre on one so they certainly won't be recommending that their customers go out and buy one.

Goudy

EssexExile said:

8pm tonight, BBC1 Electric Cars: What they really mean for you.

I watched that and found it sort of mirrored what I was thinking about EV's myself.

The government has had a haphazard approach and basically made a plan to ban petrol and diesel cars then left the market to sort itself out in regards to what we will all have to buy and the infrastructure to run it.

It's going to happen, but they aren't paying for any of it, we all will!

They could have done things so much better but we are where we are and it looks like battery EV's are here to stay, for a while at least.


I can't help but think though there will be a change at some point though.

Rather like a few years ago, when it was only really trucks and lorries that ran on diesel and very few cars used it. Yet diesel was available almost everywhere (usually tucked up out the back of petrol stations) and manufacturers started to invest and build diesel cars.
OK the push really came for CO2 targets, but it happened all the same.

It's pretty obvious battery HGV's aren't going to cut it. No matter how you look at it, carrying tonnes and tonnes of batteries (and therefore less load) to travel 150 miles or so with then a recharge wait measured in hours and hours is going to cause serious problems for everyone that ever buys anything. Costs for everything as everything moves by road, will sky rocket.

Also materials and production for batteries, plus there disposal is going to be an issue, sooner rather then later (all eggs are really in a China basket).

They are already building hydrogen fuel cell trucks and buses, so eventually the infrastructure will grow to meet their demands which will hopefully mean car manufacturers will start to seriously invest in hydrogen car production.

To be, what's the phrase they like to use, Energy Secure? We will need to rethink the use of batteries at some point.

mgfvvc

Goudy said:

It's pretty obvious battery HGV's aren't going to cut it. No matter how you look at it, carrying tonnes and tonnes of batteries (and therefore less load) to travel 150 miles or so with then a recharge wait measured in hours and hours is going to cause serious problems for everyone that ever buys anything.

The Tesla semi has a 500 mile range and a half hour 0 to 70% charge time, at least according to Tesla.

Goudy said:
Also materials and production for batteries, plus there disposal is going to be an issue, sooner rather then later (all eggs are really in a China basket).

On the disposal side, a lot of the gigafactories that are being built include a recycling plant with a claimed 95% recovery rate. Raw materials are a concern. Sodium sulphur battery chemistries may help with that, but we'll have to see.

Goudy said:
They are already building hydrogen fuel cell trucks and buses, so eventually the infrastructure will grow to meet their demands which will hopefully mean car manufacturers will start to seriously invest in hydrogen car production.

Hydrogen is too inefficient and too hard to handle. There will probably be niches where it makes sense, but not in cars and probably not trucks either.

anon_ymous

mgfvvc said:

Goudy said:

It's pretty obvious battery HGV's aren't going to cut it. No matter how you look at it, carrying tonnes and tonnes of batteries (and therefore less load) to travel 150 miles or so with then a recharge wait measured in hours and hours is going to cause serious problems for everyone that ever buys anything.

The Tesla semi has a 500 mile range and a half hour 0 to 70% charge time, at least according to Tesla.

Goudy said:
Also materials and production for batteries, plus there disposal is going to be an issue, sooner rather then later (all eggs are really in a China basket).

On the disposal side, a lot of the gigafactories that are being built include a recycling plant with a claimed 95% recovery rate. Raw materials are a concern. Sodium sulphur battery chemistries may help with that, but we'll have to see.

Goudy said:
They are already building hydrogen fuel cell trucks and buses, so eventually the infrastructure will grow to meet their demands which will hopefully mean car manufacturers will start to seriously invest in hydrogen car production.

Hydrogen is too inefficient and too hard to handle. There will probably be niches where it makes sense, but not in cars and probably not trucks either.

Also consider how hydrogen is produced, and what a fuel cell essentially is

Ie: for green hydrogen you need renewable energy. The fuel cell is effectively a battery too. You're having to produce electricity to then convert it to hydrogen via electrolysis.

What's the point then, when you can skip a step and pay less (for cars) 

WellKnownSid

Goudy said:

It's pretty obvious battery HGV's aren't going to cut it. 

Germany and Sweden are leading the way.  2,000km of Swedish roads could be electrified by 2030.  Separate solutions for EVs were being tested 10+ years ago by Renault and others.  And that excludes the possibility of a more integrated freight transport approach which eliminates the 20% of completely empty trucks pummelling the highways of the UK right now..

Goudy

Yes but a Tesla isn't 44 tonnes.

At the moment, battery HGV's have a very limited range, around 160 to 200km when loaded and require far far more batteries then your average Tesla, often four 112kw or larger batteries due to their weight, which take longer to charge.

As they are limited to 56 mph (90 kph) you are looking at a working time of around 2 hours of less with a lengthy break for the recharge at least four 112kw batteries.

Currently a HGV driver is limited to around 4.5 hours driving with a 45 minute break.
So your EV truck will go half the distance and require the driver to have more and far longer breaks.
Anything it is carrying is just going to shoot up in price.
I made the statement we are all going to pay, yes we are. 

Hydrogen is widely used by TFL on their buses and is being used in HGVs already.
It's used in shipping and other industries as a power source and yes even cars. I see hydrogen powered mini cabs everyday on the streets of London.

At the moment there are 16 hydrogen fuel station dotted around the country, up from 12 last year. It might be difficult to handle but it is being handled and distributed, there's no doubt about that.

I understand how hydrogen is produced but with the investment in green electricity (which we currently turn off when no one needs the power from it), it can be produced greenly.
Ok, a fuel cell will require a battery but nothing like the scale of batteries needed for battery cars and HGVs.

As that BBC programme explained, we are massively behind in scaling up production of the raw materials for batteries and it takes years to actually scale up.

We wouldn't be totally reliant on storing power in materials of limited availability, controlled by dubious governments.
We've been there and it never goes well for us.

I see it a more viable approach for energy security than what is happening at the moment but of course there might be others, yet to be explored. 
I am convinced the battery is today, but it's certainly not for tomorrow.

mgfvvc

Goudy said:

Yes but a Tesla isn't 44 tonnes.

The Tesla semi is 81,000 lbs loaded. I haven't done the conversion but that's not far off 40 tonnes

Goudy said:

At the moment, battery HGV's have a very limited range, around 160 to 200km when loaded and require far far more batteries then your average Tesla, often four 112kw or larger batteries due to their weight, which take longer to charge.

Again, 500 miles. Yes, it does use a lot of batteries, but a high charge rate, possibly as much as 1.4MW makes the charge time acceptable.

Of course the Tesla semi has yet to be delivered in large numbers and there are very few chargers capable of charging at that rate, but Hydrogen trucks are also starting from a low base. Also there are a large number of trucks running shorter routes that are relatively easy to electrify.

mark_cycling00

Two things:

1. Many new electric models have been delayed due to COVID+Ukraine+ supply chain issues. Fiat Panda for example which was aiming for a very low pricetag.
Also Tesla expected to launch a cheaper small family car soon. So in a year or two you may be able to buy a much cheaper all electric car.

2. A new Tesla is said to last anywhere between 500,000 and 1,000,000 miles. But hardly anyone has actually done that mileage so it's speculation at this point. But if this becomes accepted then I imagine that financing will really change and become cheaper.

Still the issue of whether we have enough electricity for all these cars. 

HillStreetBlues

Has any research been done on all the extra weight on the roads that  the changeover will bring?