Coming out of a fix - what’s my best option?

jonnydeppiwish!

Hi

Been really fortunate over the last 2 years as have been on an SSE Fix and Control V3 (average bill for both in a 3 bed semi is £60pm).

However this is due to end next, so what’s my best option? Are fixes available or are SVRs the best way to go?

Thanks in advance

jjmmww1

Octopus tracker I'd say + you get £50 if you get someone to refer you 

jonnydeppiwish!

jjmmww1 said:

Octopus tracker I'd say + you get £50 if you get someone to refer you 

Thanks very much 👍 

Scot_39

Tracker (daily) and agile (1/2 hourly) - the two wholesale rate trackers from Octopus - are far from standard tariffs.

People have been saving a lot of money in recent months - on both - but it still doesn't make them an obvious choice for all.

How much savings ? - just scanned an article from quick google from press last week - that iirc mentioned tracker electric in the c8-20p range over the previous month - cf SVT c33p/ now c30p.  And gas c4.5p cf 10p on old EPG / c7.5p now etc.

But past rates aren't a guarantee of future rates. 

Transitioning from the security of a fix - a 2 year fix at that - bypassing current 1 yr fixes (if your supplier offers / offers to you) and then the Ofgem 3m average based cap SVT - to full daily exposure to wholesale rates - is a non trivial risk change.

So make sure you understand the difference. The risks / rewards (prices as above in good times).

If wholesale linked rates spike above Ofgem c30p (iirc Octopus cap is £1/kWh) - that is then also what you would pay.

The last big wholesale pricing spike - came on back of a low renewables (wind output) period during the early December cold snap - hitting weekly average of c£400/MWh (the price either side had been £100 or below just like last month or so). 

Compare that to the c£62-£102 in last month - which might aline with that articles 8-20p range of tracker unit rates. 

I'll leave others with better data to do the maths on what such a spike could mean for tracker rates.

Something - a mindset monitoring / thought process - you were completely isolated from on your fix - and still would be on SVT - but wouldn't be on tracker.

So as a minimum, some on it or agile posting here, make the point it really needs checking on regularly - with some even formulating a plan to jump if pricing makes it less desirable.

And from a non subscriber - if the agile / tracker daily averages do remain significantly below Ofgem cap - I hope / suspect there will be questions asked of govt and Ofgem by press.  

But even the nature of the Ofgem cap - has a cost associated with the pricing stability it provides.  So just as many an old cap charged a premium - arguably their might be an inherent cost in the SVT for it's 3m of stability.

jonnydeppiwish!

Scot_39 said:

Tracker (daily) and agile (1/2 hourly) - the two wholesale rate trackers from Octopus - are far from standard tariffs.

People have been saving a lot of money in recent months - on both - but it still doesn't make them an obvious choice for all.

How much savings ? - just scanned an article from quick google from press last week - that iirc mentioned tracker electric in the c8-20p range over the previous month - cf SVT c33p/ now c30p.  And gas c4.5p cf 10p on old EPG / c7.5p now etc.

But past rates aren't a guarantee of future rates. 

Transitioning from the security of a fix - a 2 year fix at that - bypassing current 1 yr fixes (if your supplier offers / offers to you) and then the Ofgem 3m average based cap SVT - to full daily exposure to wholesale rates - is a non trivial risk change.

So make sure you understand the difference. The risks / rewards (prices as above in good times).

If wholesale linked rates spike above Ofgem c30p (iirc Octopus cap is £1/kWh) - that is then also what you would pay.

The last big wholesale pricing spike - came on back of a low renewables (wind output) period during the early December cold snap - hitting weekly average of c£400/MWh (the price either side had been £100 or below just like last month or so). 

Compare that to the c£62-£102 in last month - which might aline with that articles 8-20p range of tracker unit rates. 

I'll leave others with better data to do the maths on what such a spike could mean for tracker rates.

Something - a mindset monitoring / thought process - you were completely isolated from on your fix - and still would be on SVT - but wouldn't be on tracker.

So as a minimum, some on it or agile posting here, make the point it really needs checking on regularly - with some even formulating a plan to jump if pricing makes it less desirable.

And from a non subscriber - if the agile / tracker daily averages do remain significantly below Ofgem cap - I hope / suspect there will be questions asked of govt and Ofgem by press.  

But even the nature of the Ofgem cap - has a cost associated with the pricing stability it provides.  So just as many an old cap charged a premium - arguably there might be an inherent cost in the SVT for it's 3m of stability.

Thanks for the detailed information. We’ve been quite good at reducing usage, especially gas as we have alternative for heating the house.

We were on Octopus prior to this fix so will look closely next month. 

Thanks again

Qyburn

jonnydeppiwish! said:

jjmmww1 said:

Octopus tracker I'd say + you get £50 if you get someone to refer you 

Thanks very much 👍 

But be prepared for the risk with Tracker. At the moment it benefits from lower prices, but if/when wholesale daily prices rise, Tracker may shoot up quicker than standard tariffs, and could hit up to three times SVT.

[Deleted User]

But be prepared for the risk with Tracker.

Tracker and Agile lead and the Cap follows. It is not outside the bounds of possibility that in any given 3 month period, Agile and Tracker rates could be above the Cap if there has been an extraordinary market event.

I know that people put a lot of faith into Cornwall Insights. It is worth looking back to their predictions this time last year. 

Scot_39

Just over a year ago - we were in their medium/long term (5-10 years) forecast at the low pricing point this Q - bouncing back in winter 2024/5 well over old EPG level iirc - and pretty much staying there for years - the last one I read was Jan - showed a slow - but steady decline - summer and winter.  Better new - but no rush back to pre crisis levels.

But even their short term predictions were jumping £200 earlier this year between updates. And their last pre Ofgem release in June - still £21 out - and I still don't know where they get 50p for the SC cf Ofgem average c52.9p (*) in some of the versions produced.

They are a guide - nothing more - and in my opinion - the risks are more stacked on the high side than the low.

And pretty soon - due to the TDCV change - those used to thinking in the £2500 / £2074 mind set - are losing their reference point.  

So despite (*) glad they do produce the SC and kWh unit prices.