No more "Government Energy Bills Support Scheme"?

Chrysalis

Spoonie_Turtle said:

Chrysalis said:

Government support is in the process of being wound down, and unless there is another large jump in prices I think whats already announced is it, so EPG at £3000 until April 2024 and another £600 of CoL payments for the poorest.

Which of course are to go towards the increases in almost all costs of living - food prices haven't come down, neither mortgage and rent costs nor public transport prices, etc.

(I know you know this, just reminding anyone with a tendency to forget that most people won't be able to put the full amount of the CoL payments towards energy.)

Nothing wrong with reminding people, I should have made that point as I had to do so in a post a few weeks back.

Scot_39

MattMattMattUK said:

Why October 2023? Energy bills have fallen and will likely not rise again, so there will not be higher bills in October. There are no more taxpayer funded handouts for the majority of people, although those on certain benefits are getting upwards of £900. 

Whilst i accept your point re overall cap pricing predicted stability - thats a very narrow viewpoint.

Many people don't look at their bill as a purely academic pricing exercise - especially those struggling - they look at what they have to find every month to pay it. The money flowing out of their purses or accounts - and for many - yes that will in fact be higher - despite cheaper kWh unit rates.

Cornwall insights - in May forecast another drop for gas in Oct but a small rise in SR electric - taking cap below £2000 - but then a rise for both in Q1 - rasing it back to circa £2040 ???   (given they were out cf Ofgem by c£20 didn't check exactly)

So yes like July Q4 and Q1 still below EBSS adjusted EPG of £2500-400 = £2100.  But the July DF DD ave cap - £2074 - only £26 saving - or 50p pw.

Which is great for average and higher users - at least on gas mains (dual fuel as headline cap rate) - compared to TDCV.

However for low users and all electric users - as the bulk of the savings are on gas rates =  c30%+ vs electric c10% - the loss of the £400 will outweigh the cap / July unit rate savings - so actual payments will rise next year.

So say an all electric low user on average £100pm / £1200 pa - as approximation to poster above and myself (at lower end of kWh use over last 5+ yrs- working away/weather etc) - might only save - £100 - overall on billing (ignoring EBSS)

(Using say £200 for SC (highest c£225 DD) - Units = £1000 - 10%/kWh savings = £100 saving pa in raw billing)

But then have "lost" the one off £400 rebate - so end up £400-£100 = £300 pa or £6 pw or £25 pm worse off overall compared to net outgoings last year.

£25 in £100 - a not inconsiderable jump - to anyone struggling.  And remember thats averaged over the year.

So I suspect many - many millions(*,**) - of peoples payments will increase cf last year - despite the cap drop - as lose the EBSS.

And if like me your winter bills are easily say 2 to 3x summer - for those on non annualised payment plans - e.g. prepay - the "step" change as winter heating goes on - without the £66/67 offset - will be a much bigger challange come this winter than last.

(*) On a quick google - c4m homes have no mains gas.  I suspect majority of the c2.5m on E7 and say c0.5m on other legacy multirate traditional heating tariffs - will be all electric.

(**) By definition if TDCV typical - there will be millions even on dual fuel below it. You don't even have to be much below TDCV in fact to be losing out overall.  The net £26 difference - in July c 1% - tiny.

Scot_39

matelodave said:

correct, insofar as you wont be getting another £400.

However AFAIK there is still an energy price guarantee in place until next April which limits any rises to to the mythical £2500 a year for an average user.

No its going up to £3000 ceiling.  Unless CI really got it wrong - for many - effectively ignore it - its out of play until ends next Apr iirc.

Although technically if on prepay - from July 1st - when the structure will still being used to compensate suppliers to match prepay rates to Ofgem DD rates (SC and/or units - was confusing when they announced - actual ??)

Scot_39

tracyyi said:

How can we check the energy price since last year, I want to see if there is any price reduce.

As a rough guide the July prices are around 10% below winter EPG for single rate electric, for gas closer to 27% (c7.5 vs 10.3 average etc) - both though depend on region and exact quarter over last winter you compare them with - if want really accurate numbers.

The easiest source is old bills or suplier tariff change notices - if you have them.

If you are on a standard single rate electric / gas SVT tariff it's a bit messy - but you can find exact pricing details - going back a few years - on gov and ofgem sites.

If on a multirate like E7 - it's much more difficult if not impossible - without actual bills or records as you go - as very much up to suppliers.  But you might be able to find on your supplier website blogs or archive areas.

The EPG single rate electric and gas unit rates since Oct 22 are still available on gov website

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/energy-bills-support/energy-bills-support-factsheet-8-september-2022

The standing charges - are available on the Ofgem website - but the tables are designed for industry - not consumers.  And under the EPG (Oct 22 - June 23) - the unit rates were before the discount - so need to  use gov site for /kWh rates.

For current (oops ) July1st onwards - and Apr -Sep 22 and before - though they are the default tariff prices.

Just google e.g. Ofgem cap Apr 2023, Jan 2023, Oct 2022, before that was 6 monthly - Apr 2022, Oct 2021 iirc.

So for instance the new set about to come in is 1st document linked at main page

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/default-tariff-cap-level-1-july-2023-30-september-2023

so

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2023-05/Default tariff cap level - 1 July 2023 - 30 September 2023.pdf

They tabulate by payment method (Ofgem uses "other payment" - for direct debit) and need a bit of maths.

e.g.  take 1st gas figures

Region,          Nil kWh      m (12,000kWh)

North West     £101.20    £959.83

The £101.20 is the ex vat SC - so /365 + 5% -> 29.11p daily SC you pay

The second colum - is the total - again ex VAT - but as total inc SC figure too - for 12000 kWh for gas (its tabled for 3100 standard single rate electric and 4200 multirate - think E7 style electric tariffs )

So gas rate = (959.83-101.20) / 12000 * 1.05 for VAT ->  7.5p / kWh etc

Qyburn

Scot_39 said:

So I suspect many - many millions(*,**) - of peoples payments will increase cf last year - despite the cap drop - as lose the EBSS.

I'm sure that's correct. We're not really low users, yet the combination of hand-outs EPG, EBSS and AFP meant we didn't pay anything in Mar Apr or May, we won't pay a thing in June and will still have a bit of credit at the start of July.

But I dont think it is correct to assume the Government has an obligation to subsidise anything that rises in price. Instead there should be targeted support for people who need it. That needn't necessarily be solely Government money either, raising the minimum wage would make people better off and could save on benefits as well. 

To be honest I don't know why the £400 was even brought in, it seems to overlap with the goals of the EPG, except not directly linked to price cap. And it has had the harmful side effect of people expecting it to continue, or expecting it to be reinstated if prices ever rise.. 

CSI_Yorkshire

Qyburn said:

Scot_39 said:

So I suspect many - many millions(*,**) - of peoples payments will increase cf last year - despite the cap drop - as lose the EBSS.

To be honest I don't know why the £400 was even brought in, it seems to overlap with the goals of the EPG, except not directly linked to price cap.  

Because they didn't think they would need to make the EPG, and by the time they decided to it wouldn't have been politically sensible to stop the direct payments.

Could you imagine the headlines?  "Government steals £400 from hardworking families in the cold winter."

Scot_39

Qyburn said:

Scot_39 said:

So I suspect many - many millions(*,**) - of peoples payments will increase cf last year - despite the cap drop - as lose the EBSS.

To be honest I don't know why the £400 was even brought in, it seems to overlap with the goals of the EPG, except not directly linked to price cap. And it has had the harmful side effect of people expecting it to continue, or expecting it to be reinstated if prices ever rise.. 

To be honest, I wasn't trying to justify the various schemes.

Just counter the argument that the new cap rates  mean no price rises ("no higher bills" - the phrase used) this year for millions of homes.

And back up the OPs assertion that there would in fact be a significant increase in the cash many people would have to find to pay there bills this winter cf last.

With at least one real example of what might really happen - to a low use all electric household.

One Ofgem shows regular contempt for - on legacy electric heating systems and abandoning widespread supplier provision of supportive tariffs for them.

Views on benefits and the differing aid packages etc get very political - so some simple facts.

Unless inflation becomes significant widespread deflation e.g. to cancel the 30-50% inflation in some basic foods, that even come July energy still nearly double (1.96) winter 20/21 rates, etc etc
 - prices are and will remain significantly higher now than 1 or 2 years ago

Benefits and remember also wages for poor (in line with or actual min wage) really have not come close to matching by the CPI (a completely inadequate measure for many) indexing of benefits and min wage.

And my view - sorry as this will be seen as  political
Until that gap is closed by rises to core benefits and wages or price falls - far further than even this years 10% increase, or -10% electric or -27% gas unit rate in July etc.
To maintain a minimum existence - and beyond perhaps a fair standard relative to wider society (even if not fully restored for many to 2021 levels - just as it won't be for even average/median earners) - similar aid measures will be required medium to long term

brewerdave

Qyburn said:

Scot_39 said:

So I suspect many - many millions(*,**) - of peoples payments will increase cf last year - despite the cap drop - as lose the EBSS.

I'm sure that's correct. We're not really low users, yet the combination of hand-outs EPG, EBSS and AFP meant we didn't pay anything in Mar Apr or May, we won't pay a thing in June and will still have a bit of credit at the start of July.

But I dont think it is correct to assume the Government has an obligation to subsidise anything that rises in price. Instead there should be targeted support for people who need it. That needn't necessarily be solely Government money either, raising the minimum wage would make people better off and could save on benefits as well. 

To be honest I don't know why the £400 was even brought in, it seems to overlap with the goals of the EPG, except not directly linked to price cap. And it has had the harmful side effect of people expecting it to continue, or expecting it to be reinstated if prices ever rise.. 

Unfortunately increasing the minimum wage would further increase inflation and would cause many businesses to either reduce headcounts or even close their doors.

Qyburn

I don't know if anything can be done without side affects. Personally I'd support raising the minimum wage as essentially the problem is prices rising faster than wages. And at the low end the Government is essentially subsidising businesses to pay below a living wage.

I simply don't see the logic in subsidising one specific thing (energy) on the basis that loads of other things are more expensive so people can't afford energy.

CSI_Yorkshire

Qyburn said:

Personally I'd support raising the minimum wage as essentially the problem is prices rising faster than wages. And at the low end the Government is essentially subsidising businesses to pay below a living wage.

To attempt to defeat prices rising by adding additional costs to businesses would appear extremely counter-intuitive to me.

Qyburn said:

I simply don't see the logic in subsidising one specific thing (energy) on the basis that loads of other things are more expensive so people can't afford energy.

That I completely agree with.  Especially a blanket subsidy.