Eon Next Loyalty Fixed V2

scobie

CSI_Yorkshire said:

scobie said:

31p is a shocking rate for electricity given prices are reducing 17-20per cent in June.  And don’t get me started on that standing charge. 

Convenient that you forget to mention what they are reducing from, isn't it.

Out of interest, how much loss do you think companies should be forced to make?

My point is that the octopus flexible rate in my area is currently 32p and that’s before the price goes down in July.   To fix now at 31p would be the ultimate folly when we know for sure that the SVR rate is likely to be around 26-27p in three weeks time. 

scobie

bristolleedsfan said:

scobie said:

31p is a shocking rate for electricity given prices are reducing 17-20per cent in June.  And don’t get me started on that standing charge. 

Standing charges and unit rates for gas and electricity under the Energy Price Cap on direct debit  from 1 July to 30 September 2023

North Wales & Mersey

Unit rate: 7.54p per kWh   Standing charge: 29.11p per day

Unit rate: 31.10p per kWh   Standing charge: 61.82p per day

Blimey. I’m glad I don’t live in that part of the world. 

CSI_Yorkshire

scobie said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

scobie said:

31p is a shocking rate for electricity given prices are reducing 17-20per cent in June.  And don’t get me started on that standing charge. 

Convenient that you forget to mention what they are reducing from, isn't it.

Out of interest, how much loss do you think companies should be forced to make?

My point is that the octopus flexible rate in my area is currently 32p and that’s before the price goes down in July.   To fix now at 31p would be the ultimate folly when we know for sure that the SVR rate is likely to be around 26-27p in three weeks time. 

To fix now would be a perfectly legitimate decision if you thought that the prices would go back up significantly three months later and that there wouldn't be any comparable fixes available later in the year.

I'm glad you see everything so clear cut, but it isn't.

bristolleedsfan

DerwentMailman said:

bristolleedsfan said:

DerwentMailman said:

molerat said:

Which way do you think prices are going ?  Ignore what other people are paying. Those prices are higher than the July cap.

Especially on both the SC and Unit rates on electricity - unit rates on gas only marginally cheaper @7.51p/kWh.  @ the OP,  only you can really decide if price security over 12 months is worth fixing now.

Average regional rates are irrelevant for most consumers, some standing charges are 40p ish others are 60pish, equally there are variations in unit rate.

Consumers can find own regional July cap rates/costs.

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/what-are-the-price-cap-unit-rates-/

Which is why I quoted rates for North West  (as per OP's first post) 

You appear to have incorrectly assumed reference O/P made to "North West" meant North West region when it is highly likely O/P lives somewhere that is not within North West region

O/P subsequently said this which indicates I hit nail on head - North Wales & Mersey    

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6447403/new-e-on-fixed-rate-deal-starting-july#latest

"they have also sent me the SVR rate (detailed below) and they are the same"

Scot_39

scobie said:

31p is a shocking rate for electricity given prices are reducing 17-20per cent in June.  And don’t get me started on that standing charge. 

There not all reducing 20% in July - electricity is reducing by 10% - and according to CI forecasts rising in Q4 and Q1 2024 - to within 7% cf current cap - regional averages.  In fact the cap itself is only reducing from EPG £2500 to £2074

CI electric unit rates the CI forecast - 29.48 29.80 30.65 - so increasing c1.2p by Q1 2024.

Which closes some of the difference between 29.94 if N West - c31.1p if NW&Mersey and the 31.1p on offer - but thats on top of a c7p higher SC as well (which funnily enough exactly matches the NW DD level

And that's more important to the OP - as thats nearly 3/4 of his estimated annual use.

Whereas gas is going down - c28% July - (10.3-7.5p regional average) - but CI forecast to go to c35% (sub7p) Q4 and bounce back Q1 24.

And so overall the cap is increasing again by Q1 24. July / Q3 - £2054 (an underestimate by £20 cf Ofgem actual), £1976, £2045 - so down then back up.

This sort of level of reminds me of a lot of the fixed offers before the market was opened up to the "new challenger" suppliers - with often a small premium - to guarantee price security.

EOn are now the second of the big 6 to offer 12m fixes that don't offer significant savings overall - and the V2 seems to have reverted from low use favouring savings on Standing charge in their V1 offer.

Perhaps the indication that the market has in fact adapted to the 30+ company failures of the recent past - and potential increased market volatility.

Curious though that the OP states he is in North West - did he really mean the North West billing region ?? - but in his second post next Flex SVT offered by EOn - both the Standing charge and unit rate quoted is far closer to N Wales & Mersey Ofgem July DD = SC at £214.90 pa ex vat / 61.82p/day inc VAT and that regions unit rate figures from Ofgem for July 1st - .

Possibly just coincidence ?  (even the gas rate is closer to NW&Mersey 7.54p whereas N West 7.51p a smidgen lower)

If the OP is in fact in N Wales & Mersey region - then given the matching figures - and CI forecasting an electric price rise in Q4 and Q1 - that could well be a good deal.

Scot_39

scobie said:

CSI_Yorkshire said:

scobie said:

31p is a shocking rate for electricity given prices are reducing 17-20per cent in June.  And don’t get me started on that standing charge. 

Convenient that you forget to mention what they are reducing from, isn't it.

Out of interest, how much loss do you think companies should be forced to make?

My point is that the octopus flexible rate in my area is currently 32p and that’s before the price goes down in July.   To fix now at 31p would be the ultimate folly when we know for sure that the SVR rate is likely to be around 26-27p in three weeks time. 

But it's not - the regional average is reducing from 32.8p to 30.1p inc VAT - thats an aver of c2.7p - no idea where your 5-6p comes from - probably using the same 20% - which isn't happening for electric.

If the PP  matches the DD SVT as promised - then Yorkshire has the cheapest unit rates (but a high SC) - and from Ofgem cap tables for SR - for Yorkshire - work out at 29.3p / kWh.

Nowhere near as big a fall as you seem to predict - which is completely unnecessary - given Ofgem published there new tables for July for all regions on the 25th May.

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2023-05/Default tariff cap level - 1 July 2023 - 30 September 2023.pdf

[Deleted User]

bristolleedsfan said:

You appear to have incorrectly assumed reference O/P made to "North West" meant North West region when it is highly likely O/P lives somewhere that is not within North West region

O/P subsequently said this which indicates I hit nail on head - North Wales & Mersey    

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6447403/new-e-on-fixed-rate-deal-starting-july#latest

"they have also sent me the SVR rate (detailed below) and they are the same"

Good spot my error - I'll know in future to be circumspect about potentially duff information

andywilliams1187

Apologies for any confusion caused, but for the avoidance of doubt I am in Merseyside (north west) so believe I fall under the North Wales & Mersey regions

Based on the fact that my account is in credit at the moment, and we had budgeted significantly more than what the proposed fixed rate is, I am starting to lean towards just fixing it for the 12 months and then seeing what happens over the next year. 

Gerry1

andywilliams1187 said:

I am in Merseyside (north west) so believe I fall under the North Wales & Mersey regions

Look at the S-number on your bill and find the leftmost box in the lower row.

13 is Merseyside and North Wales, 16 is North Western England.

[Deleted User]

An observation on fixes...

Much of the conversation in the various threads about fixes focus on predictions on future pricing and whether prices are likely to go up, go down or stay about the same. But there is, in my view, another question to ask concerning the risk of another price shock.

The other question we should all be asking ourselves, in my view, is not whether we think there will be another price shock or not (i.e. massive hike in prices due to an unforseen event). We should be asking if the risk of another price shock is big enough to make us want to mitigate against it.

I don't for a minute believe that my house is going to burn down next year, but it is nevertheless a risk that I have insured myself against - as I suspect have most people. I have insured myself against that risk because I would face financial ruin and a pretty miserable retirement if I lost my house and all it's contents without insurance.

So what's the realistic worse case scenario for energy prices? It would be a bold (or dare I say foolhardy?) person who would completely discount the possibility of an escalation of the war in Ukraine or Chinese involvement in that (or opportunitistic invasion of Taiwan). And the world seems pretty unstable at the moment so, in the words of the song "there may be trouble ahead".  To be absolutely clear, I personally don't think any of these things are likely to happen. But I do think they are perfectly plausible scenarios to consider and not something to be completely dismissed.

To balance this, if it hits the fan again I daresay the Government would intervene - but at what level? My best guess would be the price cap of £3000 would hold, or put it another way in the event of a major price shock it would probably be reasonable to assume something like a 50% increase in prices. Again, to drive home the point, I don't think a 50% increase in prices is likely but I do think it is a very real possibility and not to be ignored.

Coming back to my house insurance example, the thing that drives me to insure my house is the impact of it catching fire (the possibility of financial ruin) not the liklihood of it catching fire. So the question in relation to energy prices becomes something along the lines of "what would the impact on me be if energy prices went up 50%"?

For many, that impact might not be too severe at all. Having to scale down holiday plans, postpone the purchase of a new car or draw on emergency funds might be a sickener but woudn't be the end of the world.

But what about those who are already "bouncing along the bottom"? Needing to find another £1000 could be the last straw and cause real financial hardship - debts that take forever to pay off, house repossession, or whatever.

In conclusion, my concern is that all this discussion about whether prices are likely to go up or down a few % is distracting attention from one of the key benefits of fixing - protection against unexpected price shocks. Speculation against future price swings in the absence of major shocks certainly makes interesting reading, I just hope that nobody takes their eye off the ball and forgets to ask themselves if they could survive another price shock.