1 million additional renter's to be made homeless(evicted)?

MultiFuelBurner

Admittedly the Government report regarding English Landlords is 2021 (source and main findings below 👇) but given the upcoming rent reform bill due 2024 sometime closely followed by the potential EPC minimum grade C for rental properties I would suggest most single property LL's are now seriously considering selling up.

That's means a potential 780,000 families/individuals without a home. Demand and competition for available properties increasing and the knock on effect of higher rents and LL's having their pick of what they deem a suitable tenant.

More concerning is LL's in the next bracket that own 2-4 properties representing 39% of the rental market representing 1.5million families/individuals.

It is not inconceivable to me that we will see over 1 million families/individuals homeless in the next 12-24 months. Maybe as high as 1.5million homeless/evictees

I would hazard an educated guess the next tranche of LL's with 5 or more properties most will continue as well will do with 16 (2 abroad) however we will adjust our business model to the new rules and regulations. Ultimately it will be renter's that lose from all these changes imo.

Don't forget there are already in excess of 100,000 families/individuals that Local Authorities cannot house.

Government LL survey

Source

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/english-private-landlord-survey-2021-main-report/english-private-landlord-survey-2021-main-report--2/

Main findings

There are approximately 3.9 million live deposits registered with one of the three government-backed Tenancy Deposit Protection (TDP) schemes that operate in England. These correspond to an estimated 438,000 registrants (landlords and agents), only some (about 408,000) were landlords who had registered the deposits themselves.

It is estimated that the TDP schemes cover between 59% to 77% of households in the private rented sector [footnote 8].

Just under half of all landlords owned one rental property, though nearly half of tenancies were owned by landlords with five or more properties.

43% of landlords owned one rental property, representing 20% of tenancies.

A further 39% owned between two and four rental properties, representing 31% of tenancies.

The remaining 18% of landlords owned five or more properties, representing almost half (48%) of tenancies.

Yellowsub2000

It’s so simple, all those people will look for cheaper accommodation. There will be more sharing going on. There can be multiple families living in same house, or smaller homes ie 1 bed properties housing small families 

Yellowsub2000

In many countries it’s not uncommon to have lots of kids share one bedroom.

The time of needing a bedroom for every child is over. 

The crisis is only just picking up speed, in a few years everyone will realise they have to downsize and lower quality in cheaper areas.

Brie

all sounds a bit sensationalist to me.  people won't be homeless.  they just won't necessarily be in the same home.  the housing stock isn't going to vanish overnight.  someone will buy it.  some renters will move in having bought property.  others will simply have new landlords.

Sea_Shell

Assuming they can find enough buyers (at a price they're happy with) to offload all these unwanted let properties to!

If not, don't we just end up with either empty properties, or a "cooling" market.

Are there enough buyers, with the capital (or lending), to keep the market stable?

Yellowsub2000

MultiFuelBurner said:

Yellowsub2000 said:

Jude57 said:

Yellowsub2000 said:

Nobody will be homeless either the government or housing association will house them or they will have to go for a cheap and dirty place 

Where do you think local authorities or housing associations are going to get the properties to rehome everyone? Most have years (if not decades) long waiting lists already. The obligation to provide accommodation extends only to emergency cases, and those are often only offered Bed and Breakfast accommodation which is hardly suitable for those with young children, let alone those with additional needs or disabilities. Demand for social housing has outstripped supply for decades and isn't going to be resolved any time soon, if ever.

 Not everyone can work from home from any location and the cheapest parts of the country also have fewer jobs so that's not an answer either. As to children sharing rooms, people certainly did that in the UK until relatively recently but once children are adolescent, ideally, they need their own space. 

Many properties will be repossessed once interest rates go over 5% and most fixed terms come to an end, housing associations will be snapping up a lot of them.

How many repossessions are you expecting?

Depends how high interest rates go. If they go over 6% then it’s going to be a lot 

LegallyLandlord

It’s all based on assumptions. I’m buying another rental property at the moment as I’m in it for the long haul. If rents go up, that will encourage landlords to stay rather than sell. 

I think there’s been a lot of nonsense said about the Renters Reform Bill. It’s a bit more admin and landlords will need to be choosy with tenants. I already accept pets and families. But I’m essence, it’s a good thing. 

[Deleted User]

Hopefully this will drive prices down so people can buy.

Simonon77

There won't be anywhere near that number. If landlords do end up selling what happens to those properties? They don't get knocked down or vanish, someone else buys them, and lives there or rents them out. There isn't going to be a million homeless people and empty housing for a million people.

Also plenty of landlords won't need to sell anyway. If they bought a flat ten years ago then there is plenty of movement for mortgage rates to go up compared to their repayments and the rent they can get for it. It will only badly effect those amateur ones who only bought in the last few years or people who thought it was a quick way of making money. Most will just ride it out until rates drop again. 

Not to mention the UK has a massive housing shortage, and that isn't due to affordability, it is due to an ever aging population and lack of social housing being built. 

ProDave

If this level of evictions does happen, then lets hope those that make the rules actually wake up, recognise cause and (unexpected at least to them) effect and realise it is their new rules causing this and reverse their changes to make being a landlord a viable and worthwhile business again.

Highly unlikely of course because they would have to admit they actually did something that does not actually achieve what they expected.

noitsnotme

Simonon77 said:

Also plenty of landlords won't need to sell anyway. If they bought a flat ten years ago then there is plenty of movement for mortgage rates to go up compared to their repayments and the rent they can get for it. It will only badly effect those amateur ones who only bought in the last few years or people who thought it was a quick way of making money. Most will just ride it out until rates drop again. 

Exactly!  There are lots of landlords that own outright and don’t care about mortgage rates too.

I have 3 rental properties.  One is on a tracker and the mortgage interest has doubled but is still less than 50% of the rental income.  The other 2 properties will have the mortgages paid off in full by the end of the year so any further mortgage rate increases won’t make any difference to those.  I’ve also paid off the mortgage on our home early thanks to the previous income from the rentals.

I can therefore be fussy about tenants and wait for the best.  Rental voids are no longer a problem.

There are plenty of other landlords in similar or better circumstances than mine.  As someone else mentioned above, we’ll be the ones snapping up these bargain price properties if it does actually happen.