Energy price predictions through to March 2024

Mstty

Latest predictions and they could lead to some suppliers dipping their toes back into the fixed market.

mmmmikey

The interesting thing for me will be to see what happens to E7 rates - although that interest is now academic having recently switched to Octopus Agile. I've had my crystal ball calibrated by a clairvoyant and put the output from that, together with these forecasts, into my magic guess-o-meter device and by my reckoning some of EDFs E7 night rates are likely to rise quite significantly again, putting many folk into the situation where they may find their better switching to a single rate tariff, and others may find a tariff such as Agile a good option.

For example, if you make the "by no means certain but not unreasoable" assumptions that:

- Underlying pre-EPC day rates and night rates go down in the same proportion as single rates

- EDF don't change the balance between pre-EPC day and night rates

then the night rate for EDF East Midlands DD would go up from about 17p/kWh to 21p/kWh

Too many caveats to list of course, but as before E7 customers face far more uncertainty than single rate customers. In my view, this is certainly a price worth paying in return for the cheap as chips rates we saw over the winter.

One thing I am confident of is that if there are increases for E7 customers there will be a lot of wailing and knashing of teeth!

Krakkkers

See that SC creeping up all the time.

cm4ever

Interesting, thanks for the info.

I'm interested to see what if any changes Octopus may or may not make to thier Flux tariff unit costs - a cheaper night or day rate for example could also mean a reduced export rate?

brewerdave

If the predictions are anywhere near right on gas ,then a lot of people will be dumping their long term fixes despite exit fees - I calculate that on last year's usage, I'll be better off by over £400 by March 24 vs my EDF two year fix price.

Mstty

brewerdave said:

If the predictions are anywhere near right on gas ,then a lot of people will be dumping their long term fixes despite exit fees - I calculate that on last year's usage, I'll be better off by over £400 by March 24 vs my EDF two year fix price.

Or they may sit tight for the summer months knowing they use very little gas and wait to see what Putin does before hitting the switch to SVT.

However new fixes are entering the market now so thats an option for known prices and a sense of stability.

Mstty

After all we are in all but name at war with Russia and if they team up with China we know what happens to energy prices

BBC News - F-16 fighter jets: US lets allies give jets to Ukraine

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65649471

[Deleted User]

Mstty said:

After all we are in all but name at war with Russia and if they team up with China we know what happens to energy prices

BBC News - F-16 fighter jets: US lets allies give jets to Ukraine

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65649471

The most sensible post of the day so far. We have an ongoing War in Europe: the first in 80 years. It only requires a single British-built StormShadow to land on Russian soil and the UK could come under direct attack. For example, power inter-connectors and internet cables could be severed causing widespread disruption. Our National Grid could come under cyber attack. 

Any energy price predictions for January 2024 are based on assumptions not facts. A lot could materially change in 6 months.  This War is far from over.

peterf83

Can someone explain why gas is falling (~25%) by a larger percentage than electricity (~15%)?

[Deleted User]

peterf83 said:

Can someone explain why gas is falling (~25%) by a larger percentage than electricity (~15%)?

Less gas needed for heating homes and electricity generation. The latter benefits from longer days and higher solar PV output. During Winter, our electricity production can be >50% from gas. This is what it is at the moment:

Marvel1

Mstty said:

After all we are in all but name at war with Russia and if they team up with China we know what happens to energy prices

BBC News - F-16 fighter jets: US lets allies give jets to Ukraine

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65649471

Curious if this will mean Octopus based on wholesale will be higher than the current EPG rates?