Current fix ends 30th September 2023 (no early exit fees). What would you do?

What_time_is_it

I'm currently in a fixed rate contract with Green Energy UK. It runs until 30th September 2023, but there are no early exit fees.
It seems almost certain that the unit rates will drop from 1st July, with the only question being by how much. We'll find out next week I guess.

At the moment I do not have smart meters.
Our gas usage is minimal (100 kwhs a month) over summer, but is quite high over winter (around 12,000 to 16,000 overall over the winter months depending on how cold the winter is)
Electricity usage is around 1,800 to 2,000 a year with slightly higher usage over winter.

So, what do I do next?

Go for a fixed rate?
Switch to a cheaper variable rate?
Speak to my current provider for their options?
Get smart meters and onboard with a flexible tariff that responds to price changes?

Thanks!

lohr500

In my opinion there is no harm in getting smart meters fitted now. As you say, you will then be able to access any smart flexible tariffs that may be of interest later.

Our 2 year fixed EDF GO Electric 96 deal ends in late August. My plan is to wait until it gets closer to expiry and then see what offers are available, either from EDF or elsewhere. I'm hoping that there will be a reduction in electricity prices in July, but the big unknown is what happens further out. If prices continue to reduce then a 1 or 2 year fix at the end of August could be a bad move
 

Mstty

What_time_is_it said:

I'm currently in a fixed rate contract with Green Energy UK. It runs until 30th September 2023, but there are no early exit fees.
It seems almost certain that the unit rates will drop from 1st July, with the only question being by how much. We'll find out next week I guess.

At the moment I do not have smart meters.
Our gas usage is minimal (100 kwhs a month) over summer, but is quite high over winter (around 12,000 to 16,000 overall over the winter months depending on how cold the winter is)
Electricity usage is around 1,800 to 2,000 a year with slightly higher usage over winter.

So, what do I do next?

Go for a fixed rate?
Switch to a cheaper variable rate?
Speak to my current provider for their options?
Get smart meters and onboard with a flexible tariff that responds to price changes?

Thanks!

I think it's wise to take very little advice from here.

In the past many members, including me, have put together the calculations for people and what may work out best for them only for it not to work out.

The best thing to do is what is good for you. Know you annual use down to the last kWh. Keep up to date with Ofgem price cap announcements, take in the predictions for future prices and add some salt. Then make your decision. A smart meter can't hurt it will open up a number of other future tariffs not available to those with dumb meters.

dunstonh

So, what do I do next?
Go for a fixed rate?
Switch to a cheaper variable rate?
Speak to my current provider for their options?
Get smart meters and onboard with a flexible tariff that responds to price changes?

Fixed rate gives you certainty of cost over the term of the fix.  It may work out cheaper or more expensive but nobody knows.   So, do you want certainty or are you willing to remain variable and take a risk which may or may not pay off?

Flexible tariffs are great if you have storage means and self generation.   Without those, you are taking a risk.  So, again it comes down to risk.

Nobody knows what is coming next.  So, any answers given that give a firm opinion either way are going to be based on that individual's risk level.   Their risk level may be different to you.

pochase

If the SVT on the first of JUly is cheaper than your current fixed tariff you should go for SVT.

The cap is valid until 30th of September, so the same day your fixed tariff ends anyway. You are not giving up any security here.

Only problem is that Green nergy UK might use a higher SVT than the Cap SVT, as they ar enot limitied in their prices by cap, but that is unlikely, and you can just switch to another supplier.

superkoopauk

The key to this is you need to look at the calculations over the summer quarter (Jul-Sep) not a year.   Given you are a low user which option is better will depend very much on your current standing charge / unit rate spilt.

Scot_39

pochase said:

If the SVT on the first of JUly is cheaper than your current fixed tariff you should go for SVT.

The cap is valid until 30th of September, so the same day your fixed tariff ends anyway. You are not giving up any security here.

The only perhaps slight caution - is that at least for now - from a few posts here - EOn only appear to be offering their new fix - as a "loyalty fix" - a deal for those coming to end of existing fixes.  Which could of course change.  And that too needs smart metering in place.

So perhaps not 100% risk free -  if other suppliers follow suit.

The current Cornwall Insight price for Jan 2024 - is c£70 higher than price for Jul and Oct - of course all only predictions.  

And the electricity rates in particular are forecast by CI to drop a lot less than the newspaper headline figure £450 might suggest - in fact split closer to 10% electric 30% gas (certainly in Q4) cf current EPG (regional average). But after a drop c10% - electric is forecast to increase in Q4 and Q1 24.

https://www.cornwall-insight.com/press/cornwall-insight-release-final-forecast-for-july-price-cap/

We will of course know the actual Q3 numbers from Ofgem this week.

(It is also "interesting" that EOn's loyalty fix seems to also have matched the £75 exit fee - per fuel - that people here were commenting seemed excessive wrt the Ovo March / April deal.  Perhaps another sign that industry making a marked shift towards a new normal for fixes ???  Like many from the big 6 in the past - these were about stability - many even charged an initial premium if multi-year deals - rather than the state in last couple of years - pre collapse of many of the new suppliers - who were offering far more aggressively priced deals)