Bad run on Premium Bonds

Nubley

We've always liked Premium Bonds because you're effectively buying the thrill of entering a lottery without losing your stake, albeit carrying the risk of seeing it eroded by inflation.

Beginning to have second thoughts though. My wife has the maximum £50,000 invested but for three months in a row has won absolutely zilch!

I'd be interested to know the odds on that happening. Has anyone else ever had a similarly bad run?

eskbanker

The odds of a blank month on a maximum holding are 12.5%, so the odds of three are 12.5% ^ 3 = 0.2%

If you want to see others' experiences, there's a long-running thread where posters relay their successes and failures:

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/81778/premium-bond-winner

Emmia

They're prizes, so not guaranteed. If you want a more certain level of return, then you need to look elsewhere, e.g savings accounts, ISA's etc.

I don't have 50k in, but I've had times when I won two or three times in a single draw, and times when there was nothing for ages.

Cisco001

How is it looks like for the past 12 months? 
Is it matching their rate overall?

mebu60

Nubley said:

We've always liked Premium Bonds because you're effectively buying the thrill of entering a lottery without losing your stake, albeit carrying the risk of seeing it eroded by inflation.

Beginning to have second thoughts though. My wife has the maximum £50,000 invested but for three months in a row has won absolutely zilch!

I'd be interested to know the odds on that happening. Has anyone else ever had a similarly bad run?

The last three months have been my best run for a while, please thank Mrs Nubley for me. I also have a £50k holding. 

It's highly likely to balance out over a period of a year. There are no guarantees.

techwatcher

According to MSE's Premium Bond Probability Calculator https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/savings/premium-bonds-calculator/#result, the odds of winning nothing with £50,000 invested are 518 to 1.

sevenhills

Nubley said:

We've always liked Premium Bonds because you're effectively buying the thrill of entering a lottery without losing your stake, albeit carrying the risk of seeing it eroded by inflation.

Pick a share, any share, daily thrills when they go up and down. Pick one with more assets than debts and you are very unlikely to lose all your money.

Swipe

I've now had 2 blank months since January on max holding and not a happy bunny. If I was still under my £1000 savings allowance they'd be out of there like a shot. Just 0.68% return so far since the prizes went up in October. Seems like my luck got way worse since then. I'd rather win £25 each month than nothing at all.

Nubley

Cisco001 said:

How is it looks like for the past 12 months? 
Is it matching their rate overall?

Not great but we've done better in other years. I'm just shocked that we've had three blank months with a £50K stake.

Linton

Nubley said:

Cisco001 said:

How is it looks like for the past 12 months? 
Is it matching their rate overall?

Not great but we've done better in other years. I'm just shocked that we've had three blank months with a £50K stake.

My Mrs has balanced out your's.  Over the past 3 months she has gained a total of £650 on a £40K holding with good prizes every month.

eastcorkram

I had a balance of between £12k and £14k for just over 18 months and won nothing.