Inflation predicted to fall to 2.9% by end of year.

booneruk

CompulsiveSaver said:

I doubt anyone actually believes the OBR (which is funded by the UK Treasury...), so I think this could be (maybe) in the category of "politically optimistic forecast".

Is that why Truss and Kwarteng sidelined them during their budget disaster then? They didn't want them to lie and say everything was peachy with their tactics?

RG2015

booneruk said:

CompulsiveSaver said:

I doubt anyone actually believes the OBR (which is funded by the UK Treasury...), so I think this could be (maybe) in the category of "politically optimistic forecast".

Is that why Truss and Kwarteng sidelined them during their budget disaster then? They didn't want them to lie and say everything was peachy with their tactics?

What the Truss Kwarteng era reminded us of, is that the markets make their own minds up.

However, if anyone believed the 2.9%, and accepted a lower pay rise then inflation would come down.

The_Green_Hornet

People tend to pick which economic forecast meets their own world view.

sevenhills

booneruk said:

CompulsiveSaver said:

I doubt anyone actually believes the OBR (which is funded by the UK Treasury...), so I think this could be (maybe) in the category of "politically optimistic forecast".

Is that why Truss and Kwarteng sidelined them during their budget disaster then? They didn't want them to lie and say everything was peachy with their tactics?

The OBR just bend the truth, they don't actually tell outright lies. Liz Truss on the other hand 🤣

Bigphil1474

They are probably right, but it doesn't help us much. Because we've already had the huge price hikes, mainly caused by energy costs, the rate of inflation should fall quite dramatically as the relative cost increase over the previous 12 months (from whenever you measure it - but basically in a year's time) will be low.

For example, we could have 100% inflation this year, followed by 0% inflation the following year, but in 2 years time, prices are still twice as high as they are today. A pint of milk going up 10% one year and 3% the next year will have gone up by more than 13%.

penners324

Milk would actually be 13.3% higher

RedImp_2

Given we are past the anniversary of the Ukraine war which was one of the major contributors I assume some of the effects of that will start to drop out of the annual calculation.   That said I wonder if the telecom and similar providers are in the index with their double digit rises just kicking in

silvercue

Sea_Shell said:

But it doesn't mean prices will come down....just that they won't be going up by as much!!!

They'll still be going up.

No, but it should mean interested rates can come back down which is good for people invested in stocks, shares, ISAs, pensions....

diystarter7

Hi

It could fall close to that easily

EG, just look at the food prices and amny item up by, on average around 50% and diesel/gas etc was up massively now coming down as well as scope for interest rates. To carry on at 11% or so will not happen.

Watch the supermarket profits rocket next trading year statments. Inflation as things stand can only really go one way, down.

Thnaks

Zaul22

They say that as month after month goes by and it never goes below 10%.