Are we expecting BOE to remain at 4.75% on 8th February 2025?

wheldcj

I think the damage is already done.   We are already seeing independent and well established restaurants by us closing their doors this autumn.  This seems unusual because I would imagine there is usually a decent uptick in December.   Frugality in the leisure and retail sector this Christmas could really impact sales and therefore jobs next year.   We already know the housing market is sluggish & will remain so.

If unemployment ramps up then wage growth drops as it becomes an employers market further denting consumer spending, a vicious spiral.  As has been said above mortgage and rent cost increase will bite more people in 2024 and into 2025 far more than any savings that may be made if food and fuel costs reduce (which is no certainty given the current geo-political landscape).

I think Labour & Conservatives will be fighting each other not to be in government next year. 

Strummer22

wheldcj said:

I think Labour & Conservatives will be fighting each other not to be in government next year. 

I’m not sure you understand the mentality of politicians 🤣

Collateral damage to the economy from higher rates is a given- it’s just whether the current interest rate is high enough to get inflation down within a reasonable timeframe, or will higher rates and more economic damage be necessary.

Maka344

https://truflation.com/ Is now showing 6.20% inflation which is below the government’s official line. This is a huge drop, even when the government’s quoted headline figure was 6.9% this site was showing a figure of 11.3%. 

wheldcj

I can't see mortgage or rent costs on that website?

Maka344

wheldcj said:

I can't see mortgage or rent costs on that website?

Please see the following, taken from the website. 

wheldcj

Maka344 said:

wheldcj said:

I can't see mortgage or rent costs on that website?

Please see the following, taken from the website. 

I saw this as property cost itself rather than the cost of mortgages and rent.  

I don’t understand how cost can be flat if it is the later?

Strummer22

Rate held at 5.25% as expected. All eyes now on the next set of economic data, particularly inflation due 15/11. 

The BoE now expects inflation to stay around 3% throughout next year, which given that their forecasts tend to reflect opposite land, should mean that we are firmly in deflation by the latter half of 2024! 

london21

Will be sticking to 2 years fix at 5.54% with no product fees. I do feel rates will start to drop within the next 2 years.

RelievedSheff

london21 said:

Will be sticking to 2 years fix at 5.54% with no product fees. I do feel rates will start to drop within the next 2 years.

I would say that's a wise call.

Can't see interest rates dropping before the middle of next year at the earliest.

Maka344

Strummer22 said:

Rate held at 5.25% as expected. All eyes now on the next set of economic data, particularly inflation due 15/11. 

The BoE now expects inflation to stay around 3% throughout next year, which given that their forecasts tend to reflect opposite land, should mean that we are firmly in deflation by the latter half of 2024! 

Where do you see the base rate going in that scenario?