Are we expecting BOE to remain at 4.75% on 8th February 2025?

MattMattMattUK

london21 said:

MattMattMattUK said:

london21 said:

It has stayed the same maybe will come down in the next few months.

My current deal ends in February 2024 feeling a bit hopeful now that will get a better deal than 2 years fix at 5.7%

Maybe opting for variable won't be a bad idea. 

It will likely hold at the next meeting as well, there is an outside chance of another 0.25% increase this year, but there is zero change of a cut in the next few months. 

Will wait and see 

If you are confident there will be a cut then you could make a large amount of money betting on that happening.

london21 said:

There are BOE 3 more meetings until 1st Feb 2024
 2 November, 14 December and 1 February 

And there are seven more after those before the end 2024, not sure that either of those things are relevant to whether they will lower interest rates "in the next few months" though. 

RelievedSheff

london21 said:

MattMattMattUK said:

london21 said:

It has stayed the same maybe will come down in the next few months.

My current deal ends in February 2024 feeling a bit hopeful now that will get a better deal than 2 years fix at 5.7%

Maybe opting for variable won't be a bad idea. 

It will likely hold at the next meeting as well, there is an outside chance of another 0.25% increase this year, but there is zero change of a cut in the next few months. 

Will wait and see 

There are BOE 3 more meetings until 1st Feb 2024
 2 November, 14 December and 1 February 

I think it is unlikely that we will see any rate cuts anytime soon. Certainly not until the back end of next year at the earliest.

london21

Ok I have some time to decide if to stick with 2 years fix or tracker. 

Strummer22

RelievedSheff said:

london21 said:

MattMattMattUK said:

london21 said:

It has stayed the same maybe will come down in the next few months.

My current deal ends in February 2024 feeling a bit hopeful now that will get a better deal than 2 years fix at 5.7%

Maybe opting for variable won't be a bad idea. 

It will likely hold at the next meeting as well, there is an outside chance of another 0.25% increase this year, but there is zero change of a cut in the next few months. 

Will wait and see 

There are BOE 3 more meetings until 1st Feb 2024
 2 November, 14 December and 1 February 

I think it is unlikely that we will see any rate cuts anytime soon. Certainly not until the back end of next year at the earliest.

It depends on so many factors - however, for the last 3 months the annualised headline inflation rate has been 0%, and the annualised core inflation rate has been 2.4% - and that is without the full impact of the rate rises we've already had coming through. So barring some further economic shock, I would expect several of the next 9 monthly inflation figures to be negative. It may become apparent that there is a risk of deflation, even if the last 12-month inflation rate is still above 2%. I think the first rate cut will come before June. 

fergie_

How it all filters through to mortgage rates and house prices is another matter.

Baldeagle095

Wonder if Martin's TV expert, Andrew, who predicted  in February that we will
see mortgage rates beginning with a 3 by the year end will actually materialise?!

michaels

Glad it is not my call.  Inflation is still high and wage inflation still increasing - but against that we have more and more people who have remortgaged onto high rates sucking demand out of the economy.

Personally I suspect there will definitely be an 'overshoot' where in hindsight rates were kept too high for too long.  Nowadays so many more fix their mortgages so the impact of rate rises is slow but the impact of any future cuts will also take time to feed through and if house prices start to see a sustained fall it is very hard to return confidence to the market.

fergie_

Baldeagle095 said:

Wonder if Martin's TV expert, Andrew, who predicted  in February that we will
see mortgage rates beginning with a 3 by the year end will actually materialise?!

We technically did in early summer...

MDMD

fergie_ said:

Baldeagle095 said:

Wonder if Martin's TV expert, Andrew, who predicted  in February that we will
see mortgage rates beginning with a 3 by the year end will actually materialise?!

We technically did in early summer...

Indeed, I got a rate of 3.89% in May

IAMIAM

I won't be risking a two year fix again once mortgage rates get to around 2/3%. 5-10 year fix on the cards