Are we expecting BOE to remain at 4.75% on 8th February 2025?

Sarah1Mitty2

Altior said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

Altior said:

MFWannabe said:

Considering this thread has now completely deviated to a discussion on house prices etc isn’t it about time it was closed by the moderators? 

I don't believe that anyone should be compelled to open it, read it, or even post on it.

No, but it is about interest rates rising, not immigration rising (or falling)?

I wrote a long response, but lost it!

Obviously the subject of the original thread is done already.

However, if we are discussing more broadly the Bank's central rate policy (and QE), obviously this directly impacts immigration (one of almost everything that touches or lives, directly or indirectly). Weak currency and cheap borrowing rates make a country more appealing to affluent (potential) immigrants is just one example. And this pushes prices up for locals who don't benefit from a weak currency. 

True, but higher rates designed to lead to recession make it less appealing for ordinary immigrants looking for a job, and richer people will wait to pick up bargains in housing/office space etc. (that is why they are rich)

Altior

There are actually so many impacts. As people weren't getting any gains from holding cash (in fact erosion of value due to inflation), it will look to find a home with yield. And one of those homes was property for investment. If people were getting a reasonable yield from cash at bank, they probably wouldn't have gone for the hassle and potential risk of investing in property. However, 1% rates and a yield approaching double digits (real negative at the bank), a no brainer if that was an option open to them. 

Altior

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

Altior said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

Altior said:

MFWannabe said:

Considering this thread has now completely deviated to a discussion on house prices etc isn’t it about time it was closed by the moderators? 

I don't believe that anyone should be compelled to open it, read it, or even post on it.

No, but it is about interest rates rising, not immigration rising (or falling)?

I wrote a long response, but lost it!

Obviously the subject of the original thread is done already.

However, if we are discussing more broadly the Bank's central rate policy (and QE), obviously this directly impacts immigration (one of almost everything that touches or lives, directly or indirectly). Weak currency and cheap borrowing rates make a country more appealing to affluent (potential) immigrants is just one example. And this pushes prices up for locals who don't benefit from a weak currency. 

True, but higher rates designed to lead to recession make it less appealing for ordinary immigrants looking for a job, and richer people will wait to pick up bargains in housing/office space etc. (that is why they are rich)

People can have different interpretations, the point is that there is a correlation with central bank policy and immigration. A strong one I would argue.

Sarah1Mitty2

Altior said:

There are actually so many impacts. As people weren't getting any gains from holding cash (in fact erosion of value due to inflation), it will look to find a home with yield. And one of those homes was property for investment. If people were getting a reasonable yield from cash at bank, they probably wouldn't have gone for the hassle and potential risk of investing in property. However, 1% rates and a yield approaching double digits (real negative at the bank), a no brainer if that was an option open to them. 

The BTL thing was kicking off before super low "emergency" rates though? To me it was more about ordinary people being wary or not taking the time to understand stock markets looking for "easy money" (they thought the value of the property would always go up as well as provide rental income)

To get back on topic, are we now expecting base rate at 7%, that seems easily believable to me now.

Altior

We're seeing collateral moving from riskier assets rotating into cash and cash derivatives right now. This will inevitably soften property in my view.  I feel like we are more likely to see a cooling of headline inflation on the next read, but that wouldn't be an excessively confident opinion! In my own world I have started to secure long term cash bonds at +5%. I did a 7 (near 8) year fix at the start of lockdown so I should have some flexibility at the end of the fix.  

smipsy

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

To get back on topic, are we now expecting base rate at 7%, that seems easily believable to me now.

My gut feeling would say no, however:

This thread (full of experts, of course) and the media were saying "no way we're getting 4%". then it was "peak at 4.5" and then again "no way we're doing 5%". Yet here we are anyway

I think 7% is a stretch though. 6% however? Highly likely

sevenhills

smipsy said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

To get back on topic, are we now expecting base rate at 7%, that seems easily believable to me now.

My gut feeling would say no, however:

This thread (full of experts, of course) and the media were saying "no way we're getting 4%". then it was "peak at 4.5" and then again "no way we're doing 5%". Yet here we are anyway

I think 7% is a stretch though. 6% however? Highly likely

Perhaps a lot is dependent on what other countries do with their interests rates, if the USA increase their rates we tend to follow. I like to think that I am well informed, but only the Bank of England have all the information.

BikingBud

sevenhills said:

smipsy said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

To get back on topic, are we now expecting base rate at 7%, that seems easily believable to me now.

My gut feeling would say no, however:

This thread (full of experts, of course) and the media were saying "no way we're getting 4%". then it was "peak at 4.5" and then again "no way we're doing 5%". Yet here we are anyway

I think 7% is a stretch though. 6% however? Highly likely

Perhaps a lot is dependent on what other countries do with their interests rates, if the USA increase their rates we tend to follow. I like to think that I am well informed, but only the Bank of England have all the information.

Do they have "all" the information or are they in the same boat as the rest of us and also taking a punt - speculating?

None of this is science, it is all just opinion and blagging to persuade others that you know!

Aberdeenangarse

If the BoE have ‘all the information’ they’re doing an even worse job than if they didn’t!

hildosaver

smipsy said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

To get back on topic, are we now expecting base rate at 7%, that seems easily believable to me now.

My gut feeling would say no, however:

This thread (full of experts, of course) and the media were saying "no way we're getting 4%". then it was "peak at 4.5" and then again "no way we're doing 5%". Yet here we are anyway

I think 7% is a stretch though. 6% however? Highly likely

I'd say 6% is quite likely to occur by the end of this year. I'd hope that will be the peak and it will slowly reduce from there to around 4-4.5% but who knows.