Are we expecting BOE to remain at 4.75% on 8th February 2025?

MattMattMattUK

sevenhills said:

MattMattMattUK said:

Globally we need to be targeting population decrease, the UK should aim to have a flat population within a decade, a falling population by 2050. Globally all countries need to aim to return to 1990s population levels by 2100 or we are going to run out of resources to sustain ourselves.

But that isn't going to happen, it's unrealistic to think it will, so we need more house building.

Or we accept rising property prices. Personally I do not think we should be destroying woodland and building on farmland which is going to cause huge issues with being able to feed ourselves, especially factoring in climate change. Reduce the population or accept higher property prices, to me that is the choice, not building on green fields and woodland.

MFWannabe

Considering this thread has now completely deviated to a discussion on house prices etc isn’t it about time it was closed by the moderators? 

Sarah1Mitty2

Some interesting observations here.

https://www.schroders.com/en-gb/uk/intermediary/insights/uk-should-brace-for-6-5-interest-rates-here-s-why-we-ve-raised-our-forecast/

ian1246

Those advocating bringing net migration down evidently haven't been paying attention to the economy and more specifically the route cause of inflation: Lack of workers.

Migration is a good thing - it brings economically productive individuals to our country, who proceed to contribute to our overall wealth and that of the government's treasury, allowing additional funding for services. In the long-run, it means the UK may yet escape the general decline of the rest of Western Europe and continue to maintain a significant influence on the world stage.

In the short term, lack of workers means things like lack of nursery places for newborn children - meaning parents (often women, further widening the gender gap) have to stay at home - further worsening the worker-shortage and negatively impacting the quality of life of the younger demographics (young couples). It means lack of workers in the care sector and the NHS - which both directly affects death/survival-rates and also impacts long-term sickness: further worsening the quality of life of those waiting for treatment and removing them as economically-productive members of society.

Now, its true there is a significant portion of the British-Born workforce who are long-term economically inactive.... unfortunately there is only so much which can be done to get them economically active. 

It is far better to have controlled but generous levels of migration, to allow the UK economy to have the fuel it needs to grow and produce wealth.

The government needs to pull together an over-arching policy, tieing migration and population growth together with sufficient homes being built, as well as increasing the overall productivity in the UK economy - that means long-term investment in modern infrastructure and a generous taxation scheme for companies looking to invest into productivity-enhancing investments.

From a personal perspective, It seems mad that in a country which has more rainfall than China, despite being a fraction of their geographic and population size, we have long-term droughts and have to import our energy from abroad (which is ££££ exiting the British economy to abroad). Take a leaf from the Victorians and build a ton of Dams, creating a whole bunch of reservoirs to meet both future-water needs and, crucially: allow a massive expansion in Hydro-power (which is far more consistent in the energy provided vs. solar panels or wind). Couple that with a whole bunch of floating-solar panel farms on the newly created reservoirs and it might go a long-way to securing future British-energy needs and helping mitigate future price rises (helping improve businesses productivity and making British people wealthier), whilst also stemming the flow of £££ out of the British economy to foreign suppliers. Bonus points since the resulting well-paid jobs created will likely be focused in Scotland, Northern England and Wales, helping mitigate the wealth-divide vs. the south, as well as potentially drawing some migration from the South to these area's which are generally "more affordable" to live (further helping control house-price increases).

How would this be paid for? If the government can pluck £300billion out of thin-air for the Pandemic and before that, the global-recession, I'm fairly sure it could pull a far more modest (couple of billion a year?) amount to invest into long-term infrastructure - or fail in that, generate the required £££ by juggling the budget or offering better rates at NS&I.... or just increasing (modest) taxation...

Altior

MFWannabe said:

Considering this thread has now completely deviated to a discussion on house prices etc isn’t it about time it was closed by the moderators? 

I don't believe that anyone should be compelled to open it, read it, or even post on it.

Sarah1Mitty2

Altior said:

MFWannabe said:

Considering this thread has now completely deviated to a discussion on house prices etc isn’t it about time it was closed by the moderators? 

I don't believe that anyone should be compelled to open it, read it, or even post on it.

No, but it is about interest rates rising, not immigration rising (or falling)?

Sarah1Mitty2

sevenhills said:

MattMattMattUK said:

 Additionally building on green field sites means either felling woodland or removing farmland from production, both are huge negatives, so the loss of utility of that land needs to be factored in. 

I live in a house that was farmland in 1960, so I would be a hypocrite if I objected to others doing the same.

Our population, the worlds population is unsustainable, but people need to live somewhere.

But most people are already living somewhere? Price movements for housing are mainly down to interest rates and availability of credit.

Sarah1Mitty2

hildosaver said:

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

wheldcj said:

All that will happen is that the current younger generation and the future generations ability to own property will largely dictated by whether your parents (and more so grandparents) pass down their own property wealth.   And yes I understand how the class system has worked for generations but this will be far deeper engrained.   Meritocracy will be out of the window.

Not really how a "market" works, if ability to pay is taken away something has to give, I think what will happen is that interest rates will decimate house prices and those with large mortgage debt will struggle and those with no mortgage debt will have to get used to their house being worth a lot less. What you describe is what happens when cheap debt keeps getting given out, that train has gone now it looks like.

House prices will no doubt go down a bit in the short term but I guarantee they will be back up and going even higher than before in five years from now. Basic supply and demand will dictate this due to the fundamental problem in the UK of lack of housing and lack of sufficient house building for the population. If you think otherwise you are mistaken.

 You are not seriously saying that homelessness went up 30% recently?

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/uk-house-sales-fall-27-annually-in-may-hmrc-figures-baglislcxooucm3.html

Less cheap credit  due to higher interest rates just means that people can`t get the bigger or better house that they "want", it doesn`t mean that they don`t already have a house or flat to stay in and actually "need" basic shelter.

Altior

Sarah1Mitty2 said:

Altior said:

MFWannabe said:

Considering this thread has now completely deviated to a discussion on house prices etc isn’t it about time it was closed by the moderators? 

I don't believe that anyone should be compelled to open it, read it, or even post on it.

No, but it is about interest rates rising, not immigration rising (or falling)?

I wrote a long response, but lost it!

Obviously the subject of the original thread is done already.

However, if we are discussing more broadly the Bank's central rate policy (and QE), obviously this directly impacts immigration (one of almost everything that touches or lives, directly or indirectly). Weak currency and cheap borrowing rates make a country more appealing to affluent (potential) immigrants is just one example. And this pushes prices up for locals who don't benefit from a weak currency. 

BikingBud

ian1246 said:

How would this be paid for? If the government can pluck £300billion out of thin-air for the Pandemic and before that, the global-recession, I'm fairly sure it could pull a far more modest (couple of billion a year?) amount to invest into long-term infrastructure - or fail in that, generate the required £££ by juggling the budget or offering better rates at NS&I.... or just increasing (modest) taxation...

Bin HS2 and fund projects of greater benefit!