Are we expecting BOE to remain at 4.75% on 8th February 2025?

Hoenir

Current level of BOE base rate will remain restrictive. At the macro level there's still excess liquidity to be drained out of the money supply. Post QE era monetary policy was never going to have a full effect in a matter of months. The BOE might even ramp up the speed of it's bond sales.  As there's currently plenty of demand from investors. 

Altior

Like clockwork, the Fed cuts by 50 basis points with the election around the corner. 

RelievedSheff

Rates held. 

Hoenir

Altior said:

Like clockwork, the Fed cuts by 50 basis points with the election around the corner. 

The Fed is starting to get twitchy about unemployment. Probably because new jobs created figures for earlier in the year were to be overstated.  A weakening $ will help reduce inflation in the UK. Perhaps the US is finally losing it's allure. 

Hoenir

RelievedSheff said:

Rates held. 

Be a reduction in November. 

Altior

Hoenir said:

Altior said:

Like clockwork, the Fed cuts by 50 basis points with the election around the corner. 

The Fed is starting to get twitchy about unemployment. Probably because new jobs created figures for earlier in the year were to be overstated.  A weakening $ will help reduce inflation in the UK. Perhaps the US is finally losing it's allure. 

I've been stating on here that we wouldn't move until the Fed did (or received the nod ahead), and the Fed wouldn't move until close to the election. Of course this has played out, and the Fed 'surprised' with a 50 points basis change, ahead of the election. It was no surprise. They will pull out any data they want to support their moves, it's the way it works and why they held in spite of all the signals when inflation spiked as it was supposedly 'transitory'. 

Personally I don't care about all the theories, but it's useful to cut through all the noise, and be aware of what now influences the choices (certainly not primarily the interpretation of data!). 

Maka344

Altior said:

Hoenir said:

Altior said:

Like clockwork, the Fed cuts by 50 basis points with the election around the corner. 

The Fed is starting to get twitchy about unemployment. Probably because new jobs created figures for earlier in the year were to be overstated.  A weakening $ will help reduce inflation in the UK. Perhaps the US is finally losing it's allure. 

I've been stating on here that we wouldn't move until the Fed did (or received the nod ahead), and the Fed wouldn't move until close to the election. Of course this has played out, and the Fed 'surprised' with a 50 points basis change, ahead of the election. It was no surprise. They will pull out any data they want to support their moves, it's the way it works and why they held in spite of all the signals when inflation spiked as it was supposedly 'transitory'. 

Personally I don't care about all the theories, but it's useful to cut through all the noise, and be aware of what now influences the choices (certainly not primarily the interpretation of data!). 

Where do you see the Fed and BoE going over the next 12 months?

Altior

It largely depends upon how November plays out in my opinion. I'm not anticipating any significant changes from here until next year, bar a black swan event. 

Hoenir

Altior said:

Hoenir said:

Altior said:

Like clockwork, the Fed cuts by 50 basis points with the election around the corner. 

The Fed is starting to get twitchy about unemployment. Probably because new jobs created figures for earlier in the year were to be overstated.  A weakening $ will help reduce inflation in the UK. Perhaps the US is finally losing it's allure. 

I've been stating on here that we wouldn't move until the Fed did (or received the nod ahead), and the Fed wouldn't move until close to the election. Of course this has played out, and the Fed 'surprised' with a 50 points basis change, ahead of the election. It was no surprise. They will pull out any data they want to support their moves, it's the way it works and why they held in spite of all the signals when inflation spiked as it was supposedly 'transitory'. 

Personally I don't care about all the theories, but it's useful to cut through all the noise, and be aware of what now influences the choices (certainly not primarily the interpretation of data!). 

The £ strengthening against the $ has the byproduct of restraining UK inflation. The $ has many longer term issues of it's own. 

movilogo

The $ has many longer term issues of it's own

Indeed. For a long time $ remained world's favorite reserve currency due to its stability and purchasing power. Since pandemic Fed has printed trillions of $ notes and since they abandoned gold standard already, $ is in free fall. Western sanctions did little damage to Russia because Russia produced huge amount of gold which is selling worldwide and China is ramping up its gold reserve. BRICS countries are also trying to come with an alternate reserve currency among themselves - which is not good news for $.