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Are we expecting BOE to remain at 4.75% on 8th February 2025?
Comments
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Computers don't have a sense of whether something is bonkers. That's why many find that going via a mortgage broker will mean they can find a deal they otherwise could not get.horsewithnoname said:
No of course they don’t. But to say someone can’t afford to pay less than they are already paying is a bit bonkers.MeteredOut said:
Banks don't take anecdotal instances into account when making blanket policy decisions.horsewithnoname said:
Ok then, how about a friend who wanted to pay a lump off their mortgage which would more than their monthly mortgage payment but was told they didn’t pass the affordability test.Hoenir said:
Owning a house comes with an additional cost burden. Direct comparison between mortgage and rent outgoing is financially misleading.horsewithnoname said:
Also mortgage companies who reckon you can’t afford a mortgage which is significantly less than your rent is per month even when you have a deposit 🤷🏻♂️ian1246 said:I think the biggest issue for renters is scraping a deposit together. Anything which encourages landlords to sell shrinks the rental market. If the demand for rentals then doesn't also shrink at the same/ faster rate... it will result in rental prices climbing. Unfortunately I suspect a very large share of those renting lack the means to purchase the resulting increased supply of homes for sale... which means they may actually become even more lilely to be trapped if rental prices spike...Also you’ll find that a lot of tenants do maintenance themselves to save their rent being increased. What other costs are there, because I can’t think of any.0 -
Yes I am thanks🙄BarelySentientAI said:
You are aware that "paying the first month's mortgage instalment" isn't the complete scope of an affordability assessment?horsewithnoname said:
No of course they don’t. But to say someone can’t afford to pay less than they are already paying is a bit bonkers.MeteredOut said:
Banks don't take anecdotal instances into account when making blanket policy decisions.horsewithnoname said:
Ok then, how about a friend who wanted to pay a lump off their mortgage which would more than their monthly mortgage payment but was told they didn’t pass the affordability test.Hoenir said:
Owning a house comes with an additional cost burden. Direct comparison between mortgage and rent outgoing is financially misleading.horsewithnoname said:
Also mortgage companies who reckon you can’t afford a mortgage which is significantly less than your rent is per month even when you have a deposit 🤷🏻♂️ian1246 said:I think the biggest issue for renters is scraping a deposit together. Anything which encourages landlords to sell shrinks the rental market. If the demand for rentals then doesn't also shrink at the same/ faster rate... it will result in rental prices climbing. Unfortunately I suspect a very large share of those renting lack the means to purchase the resulting increased supply of homes for sale... which means they may actually become even more lilely to be trapped if rental prices spike...Also you’ll find that a lot of tenants do maintenance themselves to save their rent being increased. What other costs are there, because I can’t think of any.0 -
Oh gosh, maybe you could explain then. Do use words of one syllable 🙄Hoenir said:
The business news these days is dominated by personal opinion rather than informed explanation. Dumbed down financial journalism. Over simplification of complex topics.horsewithnoname said:
No of course they don’t. But to say someone can’t afford to pay less than they are already paying is a bit bonkers.MeteredOut said:
Banks don't take anecdotal instances into account when making blanket policy decisions.horsewithnoname said:
Ok then, how about a friend who wanted to pay a lump off their mortgage which would more than their monthly mortgage payment but was told they didn’t pass the affordability test.Hoenir said:
Owning a house comes with an additional cost burden. Direct comparison between mortgage and rent outgoing is financially misleading.horsewithnoname said:
Also mortgage companies who reckon you can’t afford a mortgage which is significantly less than your rent is per month even when you have a deposit 🤷🏻♂️ian1246 said:I think the biggest issue for renters is scraping a deposit together. Anything which encourages landlords to sell shrinks the rental market. If the demand for rentals then doesn't also shrink at the same/ faster rate... it will result in rental prices climbing. Unfortunately I suspect a very large share of those renting lack the means to purchase the resulting increased supply of homes for sale... which means they may actually become even more lilely to be trapped if rental prices spike...Also you’ll find that a lot of tenants do maintenance themselves to save their rent being increased. What other costs are there, because I can’t think of any.0 -
Then your shock over people being declined at affordability because the initial mortgage payment is less than rent seems unusually misplaced.horsewithnoname said:
Yes I am thanks🙄BarelySentientAI said:
You are aware that "paying the first month's mortgage instalment" isn't the complete scope of an affordability assessment?horsewithnoname said:
No of course they don’t. But to say someone can’t afford to pay less than they are already paying is a bit bonkers.MeteredOut said:
Banks don't take anecdotal instances into account when making blanket policy decisions.horsewithnoname said:
Ok then, how about a friend who wanted to pay a lump off their mortgage which would more than their monthly mortgage payment but was told they didn’t pass the affordability test.Hoenir said:
Owning a house comes with an additional cost burden. Direct comparison between mortgage and rent outgoing is financially misleading.horsewithnoname said:
Also mortgage companies who reckon you can’t afford a mortgage which is significantly less than your rent is per month even when you have a deposit 🤷🏻♂️ian1246 said:I think the biggest issue for renters is scraping a deposit together. Anything which encourages landlords to sell shrinks the rental market. If the demand for rentals then doesn't also shrink at the same/ faster rate... it will result in rental prices climbing. Unfortunately I suspect a very large share of those renting lack the means to purchase the resulting increased supply of homes for sale... which means they may actually become even more lilely to be trapped if rental prices spike...Also you’ll find that a lot of tenants do maintenance themselves to save their rent being increased. What other costs are there, because I can’t think of any.1 -
Looks like the BOE will be holding rates again at the next meeting after todays inflation figures.
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And no doubt we once again have to listen to the same conversation at the presser today. However, Sept is now a reasonable expectation for a cut at this point.RelievedSheff said:Looks like the BOE will be holding rates again at the next meeting after todays inflation figures.
As i've always stated however, there is no need for cuts as debt markets have already priced in cuts and there will be a positive demand response to these lower (mortgage) rates which only shows itself over time. Cutting the base rate only adds to speculation of further cuts and higher asset prices. It's time to break this endless cycle of the BoE chasing its own tail.To solve inequality and failing productivity, cap leverage allowed to be used in property transactions. This lowers the ROI on housing, reduces monetary demand for housing, reduces house prices bringing them more into line with wage growth as opposed to debt expansion.
Reduce stamp duty on new builds and increase stamp duty on pre-existing property.
No-one should have control of setting interest rates since it only adds to uncertainty. Let the markets price yields, credit and labour.0 -
Business news of yesteryear used to present facts, clearly, then the presenter or writer would usually offer their opinion at the end, often, but not always sharing the opinions of others. Now news in general generally presents opinions and vox pops and if one looks very carefully there will be a few very simplified facts sprinkled into the article.horsewithnoname said:
Oh gosh, maybe you could explain then. Do use words of one syllable 🙄Hoenir said:
The business news these days is dominated by personal opinion rather than informed explanation. Dumbed down financial journalism. Over simplification of complex topics.horsewithnoname said:
No of course they don’t. But to say someone can’t afford to pay less than they are already paying is a bit bonkers.MeteredOut said:
Banks don't take anecdotal instances into account when making blanket policy decisions.horsewithnoname said:
Ok then, how about a friend who wanted to pay a lump off their mortgage which would more than their monthly mortgage payment but was told they didn’t pass the affordability test.Hoenir said:
Owning a house comes with an additional cost burden. Direct comparison between mortgage and rent outgoing is financially misleading.horsewithnoname said:
Also mortgage companies who reckon you can’t afford a mortgage which is significantly less than your rent is per month even when you have a deposit 🤷🏻♂️ian1246 said:I think the biggest issue for renters is scraping a deposit together. Anything which encourages landlords to sell shrinks the rental market. If the demand for rentals then doesn't also shrink at the same/ faster rate... it will result in rental prices climbing. Unfortunately I suspect a very large share of those renting lack the means to purchase the resulting increased supply of homes for sale... which means they may actually become even more lilely to be trapped if rental prices spike...Also you’ll find that a lot of tenants do maintenance themselves to save their rent being increased. What other costs are there, because I can’t think of any.
It is pretty much the Lie-to-children premise/policy, however it has become so prevalent and so dumbed down, treating everyone as simpletons with double digit IQs and no wider understanding. Now of course there are a lot of people like that, but it would make more sense to educate and inform them so that eventually they are able to draw valid conclusions, rather than just tell them what to think, especially when what they are told to thing is often wrong and usually has an agenda behind it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lie-to-children
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Financial journalists are not trying to educate though. They are simply reporting facts. Editorials simply present opinion supported by selected facts. Nothing in the media tries to educate.MattMattMattUK said:
Business news of yesteryear used to present facts, clearly, then the presenter or writer would usually offer their opinion at the end, often, but not always sharing the opinions of others. Now news in general generally presents opinions and vox pops and if one looks very carefully there will be a few very simplified facts sprinkled into the article.horsewithnoname said:
Oh gosh, maybe you could explain then. Do use words of one syllable 🙄Hoenir said:
The business news these days is dominated by personal opinion rather than informed explanation. Dumbed down financial journalism. Over simplification of complex topics.horsewithnoname said:
No of course they don’t. But to say someone can’t afford to pay less than they are already paying is a bit bonkers.MeteredOut said:
Banks don't take anecdotal instances into account when making blanket policy decisions.horsewithnoname said:
Ok then, how about a friend who wanted to pay a lump off their mortgage which would more than their monthly mortgage payment but was told they didn’t pass the affordability test.Hoenir said:
Owning a house comes with an additional cost burden. Direct comparison between mortgage and rent outgoing is financially misleading.horsewithnoname said:
Also mortgage companies who reckon you can’t afford a mortgage which is significantly less than your rent is per month even when you have a deposit 🤷🏻♂️ian1246 said:I think the biggest issue for renters is scraping a deposit together. Anything which encourages landlords to sell shrinks the rental market. If the demand for rentals then doesn't also shrink at the same/ faster rate... it will result in rental prices climbing. Unfortunately I suspect a very large share of those renting lack the means to purchase the resulting increased supply of homes for sale... which means they may actually become even more lilely to be trapped if rental prices spike...Also you’ll find that a lot of tenants do maintenance themselves to save their rent being increased. What other costs are there, because I can’t think of any.
It is pretty much the Lie-to-children premise/policy, however it has become so prevalent and so dumbed down, treating everyone as simpletons with double digit IQs and no wider understanding. Now of course there are a lot of people like that, but it would make more sense to educate and inform them so that eventually they are able to draw valid conclusions, rather than just tell them what to think, especially when what they are told to thing is often wrong and usually has an agenda behind it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lie-to-children
Nor should the media educate. That is not the purpose of media.
If you want education, you either need to attend school or seek it out.
The problem with the discussion of economics is too many people understand a limited amount. A little knowledge is a dangerous thing.
Whilst economists and journos can understand the relationships between variables, they do not pay enough attention to the human element which means a reaction one day can be the opposite the next day. This brings in complete uncertainty and an inability to predict any outcome with reasonable certainty.
A simple economic model ignores too many relevant variables and a complex model must reflect so much uncertainty as to render it useless.
But the Fed and BoE will have you believe they can predict ("we have the best forecasters/models"; literally they employs hundreds of Phds) and therefore have a purpose.
T'was ever thus.To solve inequality and failing productivity, cap leverage allowed to be used in property transactions. This lowers the ROI on housing, reduces monetary demand for housing, reduces house prices bringing them more into line with wage growth as opposed to debt expansion.
Reduce stamp duty on new builds and increase stamp duty on pre-existing property.
No-one should have control of setting interest rates since it only adds to uncertainty. Let the markets price yields, credit and labour.0 -
Yup what is cause and what is effect? What is leading and what is lagging? Nobody really knows and the effects can only really be assessed after the event where it becomes quite clear but we continue to repeat because it will be different this time.lojo1000 said:MattMattMattUK said:
Business news of yesteryear used to present facts, clearly, then the presenter or writer would usually offer their opinion at the end, often, but not always sharing the opinions of others. Now news in general generally presents opinions and vox pops and if one looks very carefully there will be a few very simplified facts sprinkled into the article.horsewithnoname said:
Oh gosh, maybe you could explain then. Do use words of one syllable 🙄Hoenir said:
The business news these days is dominated by personal opinion rather than informed explanation. Dumbed down financial journalism. Over simplification of complex topics.horsewithnoname said:
No of course they don’t. But to say someone can’t afford to pay less than they are already paying is a bit bonkers.MeteredOut said:
Banks don't take anecdotal instances into account when making blanket policy decisions.horsewithnoname said:
Ok then, how about a friend who wanted to pay a lump off their mortgage which would more than their monthly mortgage payment but was told they didn’t pass the affordability test.Hoenir said:
Owning a house comes with an additional cost burden. Direct comparison between mortgage and rent outgoing is financially misleading.horsewithnoname said:
Also mortgage companies who reckon you can’t afford a mortgage which is significantly less than your rent is per month even when you have a deposit 🤷🏻♂️ian1246 said:I think the biggest issue for renters is scraping a deposit together. Anything which encourages landlords to sell shrinks the rental market. If the demand for rentals then doesn't also shrink at the same/ faster rate... it will result in rental prices climbing. Unfortunately I suspect a very large share of those renting lack the means to purchase the resulting increased supply of homes for sale... which means they may actually become even more lilely to be trapped if rental prices spike...Also you’ll find that a lot of tenants do maintenance themselves to save their rent being increased. What other costs are there, because I can’t think of any.
It is pretty much the Lie-to-children premise/policy, however it has become so prevalent and so dumbed down, treating everyone as simpletons with double digit IQs and no wider understanding. Now of course there are a lot of people like that, but it would make more sense to educate and inform them so that eventually they are able to draw valid conclusions, rather than just tell them what to think, especially when what they are told to thing is often wrong and usually has an agenda behind it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lie-to-children
A simple economic model ignores too many relevant variables and a complex model must reflect so much uncertainty as to render it useless.
In the meantime it's all guesswork based on bluster and egos!
And while we continue to listen to those with VI in inflated house prices the housing ponzi continues.
Leave the system to find its own neutral point, where savers and borrowers both get something from it.2 -
From these predictions / forecasts they steer the economy. BOE does far more than simply meet every so often and tweak the base rate. After all they aren't actually in control of the global financial markets. They only influence.lojo1000 said:MattMattMattUK said:
Business news of yesteryear used to present facts, clearly, then the presenter or writer would usually offer their opinion at the end, often, but not always sharing the opinions of others. Now news in general generally presents opinions and vox pops and if one looks very carefully there will be a few very simplified facts sprinkled into the article.horsewithnoname said:
Oh gosh, maybe you could explain then. Do use words of one syllable 🙄Hoenir said:
The business news these days is dominated by personal opinion rather than informed explanation. Dumbed down financial journalism. Over simplification of complex topics.horsewithnoname said:
No of course they don’t. But to say someone can’t afford to pay less than they are already paying is a bit bonkers.MeteredOut said:
Banks don't take anecdotal instances into account when making blanket policy decisions.horsewithnoname said:
Ok then, how about a friend who wanted to pay a lump off their mortgage which would more than their monthly mortgage payment but was told they didn’t pass the affordability test.Hoenir said:
Owning a house comes with an additional cost burden. Direct comparison between mortgage and rent outgoing is financially misleading.horsewithnoname said:
Also mortgage companies who reckon you can’t afford a mortgage which is significantly less than your rent is per month even when you have a deposit 🤷🏻♂️ian1246 said:I think the biggest issue for renters is scraping a deposit together. Anything which encourages landlords to sell shrinks the rental market. If the demand for rentals then doesn't also shrink at the same/ faster rate... it will result in rental prices climbing. Unfortunately I suspect a very large share of those renting lack the means to purchase the resulting increased supply of homes for sale... which means they may actually become even more lilely to be trapped if rental prices spike...Also you’ll find that a lot of tenants do maintenance themselves to save their rent being increased. What other costs are there, because I can’t think of any.
It is pretty much the Lie-to-children premise/policy, however it has become so prevalent and so dumbed down, treating everyone as simpletons with double digit IQs and no wider understanding. Now of course there are a lot of people like that, but it would make more sense to educate and inform them so that eventually they are able to draw valid conclusions, rather than just tell them what to think, especially when what they are told to thing is often wrong and usually has an agenda behind it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lie-to-children
But the Fed and BoE will have you believe they can predict ("we have the best forecasters/models"; literally they employs hundreds of Phds) and therefore have a purpose.0
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