Premium Bond Calculator

zsolmanz

46% chance of winning the jackpot by holding £50k over 5yrs?
This is a bug, right?

zsolmanz

Isn't it closer to 1 in 20,000 rather than 1 in 2?

eskbanker

Yes, the calculator is broken - it was reported to MSE about seven weeks ago but evidently hasn't yet been addressed:

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6416798/premium-bond-calculator/p1

And yes, roughly 1 in 20,000 chance of winning a million from a maximum holding over five years....

Dr9

Wow it's even better over 4 years

MSE_James

Hi all - the team are aware of the issue and have added a note at the top of the calculator page while they work on updating the logic.

Gem-gem

With average luck it says that you can win £5k over 5 years. I was looking into an account that is paying 4.5% over 5 years and with £20k you are guaranteed just under £5k.  I have £5k in PB at the moment and a 1 yr bond about to mature. Food for thought for me.

eskbanker

Gem-gem said:

With average luck it says that you can win £5k over 5 years. I was looking into an account that is paying 4.5% over 5 years and with £20k you are guaranteed just under £5k.  I have £5k in PB at the moment and a 1 yr bond about to mature. Food for thought for me.

I think that'll be one of the erroneous results referred to above, in that the 'average luck' return should be in about 2.6-2.7% territory annually, so if you're comparing like with like, i.e. £20K in PBs versus £20K in a 4.5% fixed rate account, the latter will be better, although that differential may be eroded significantly by tax if you're perhaps factoring that into your comparison.