Premium Bond Calculator

46% chance of winning the jackpot by holding £50k over 5yrs?
This is a bug, right?




Comments

  • Isn't it closer to 1 in 20,000 rather than 1 in 2?
  • eskbanker
    eskbanker Posts: 36,520 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    Yes, the calculator is broken - it was reported to MSE about seven weeks ago but evidently hasn't yet been addressed:

    https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6416798/premium-bond-calculator/p1

    And yes, roughly 1 in 20,000 chance of winning a million from a maximum holding over five years....
  • Dr9
    Dr9 Posts: 5 Forumite
    First Post
    Wow it's even better over 4 years




  • MSE_James
    MSE_James Posts: 1,593 Community Admin
    1,000 Posts Fourth Anniversary Cashback Cashier Newshound!
    Hi all - the team are aware of the issue and have added a note at the top of the calculator page while they work on updating the logic.
    Official MSE Forum Team member.
    Please report all problem posts to forumteam@moneysavingexpert.com
  • Gem-gem
    Gem-gem Posts: 4,548 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper I've been Money Tipped!
    With average luck it says that you can win £5k over 5 years. I was looking into an account that is paying 4.5% over 5 years and with £20k you are guaranteed just under £5k.  I have £5k in PB at the moment and a 1 yr bond about to mature. Food for thought for me.
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  • eskbanker
    eskbanker Posts: 36,520 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    Gem-gem said:
    With average luck it says that you can win £5k over 5 years. I was looking into an account that is paying 4.5% over 5 years and with £20k you are guaranteed just under £5k.  I have £5k in PB at the moment and a 1 yr bond about to mature. Food for thought for me.
    I think that'll be one of the erroneous results referred to above, in that the 'average luck' return should be in about 2.6-2.7% territory annually, so if you're comparing like with like, i.e. £20K in PBs versus £20K in a 4.5% fixed rate account, the latter will be better, although that differential may be eroded significantly by tax if you're perhaps factoring that into your comparison.
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