Gas provider estimating 27% increase in usage

fergie_

I've just seen a bill will an increased direct debit for the year ahead. When its broken down, its actually estimated that the customer's gas usage will increase by 27% over the next year.

Fair enough if they knew prices were going to go up over the next year, but we know they might go up slightly in the summer, but then expected to fall back in the winter.

Anyone else noticed a trend of suppliers over estimating usage, especially when most consumers are actually REDUCING what they use?

Mstty

No guarantees as to what might happen and most suppliers are planning for the increase in prices from April EOG £2500 to £3000 so that accounts for 20% increase

k_man

Increase of 27% in customer's usage (kWh/m³) or cost (£)?

fergie_

k_man said:

Increase of 27% in customer's usage (kWh/m³) or cost (£)?

It equates to the provider estimating usage will increase by 27% when broken down.

kaMelo

fergie_ said:

k_man said:

Increase of 27% in customer's usage (kWh/m³) or cost (£)?

It equates to the provider estimating usage will increase by 27% when broken down.

Rather than talking about "what it equates to" what are the actual figures for the question @k_man asked, as in are they estimating annual usage, in kWh, will increase by 27% over last years usage?

EssexHebridean

fergie_ said:

I've just seen a bill will an increased direct debit for the year ahead. When its broken down, its actually estimated that the customer's gas usage will increase by 27% over the next year.

Fair enough if they knew prices were going to go up over the next year, but we know they might go up slightly in the summer, but then expected to fall back in the winter.

Anyone else noticed a trend of suppliers over estimating usage, especially when most consumers are actually REDUCING what they use?

Could you confirm for us (I assume this is your bill?) what your actual use (in kWh) has been over the past 12 months, and what the new forecast for estimate use is?

Prices going up - or not - are entirely irrelevant to the actual use figures. Obviously if you use more, you pay more, but prices going up doesn’t correlate in any way with using more! 

dunstonh

I've just seen a bill will an increased direct debit for the year ahead. When its broken down, its actually estimated that the customer's gas usage will increase by 27% over the next year.

Not unreasonable seeing that 2022 was very mild and resulted in energy use being about 20% less than the median.

Fair enough if they knew prices were going to go up over the next year, but we know they might go up slightly in the summer, but then expected to fall back in the winter.

Price is not the same as usage.

Anyone else noticed a trend of suppliers over estimating usage, especially when most consumers are actually REDUCING what they use?

No. Although there is a trend of consumers underestimating their average use based on a very mild 2022.

Qyburn

fergie_ said:

I've just seen a bill will an increased direct debit for the year ahead. When its broken down, its actually estimated that the customer's gas usage will increase by 27% over the next year.

How many kWh did you (or they) use last year? How many are they estimating for next year?

Raxiel

Octopus have been gradually reducing their prediction for future usage as each new month of reduced consumption goes by. They're still a little high, but still reasonable. The recommended direct debit on their 'balance forecast' tool does reduce accordingly (About £150+£67 EBSS right now). Even then it plots my balance peaking at £1300 and never dropping below £800 even in the depths of next winter.

But the recommended payment on the direct debit section of the site is even higher hasn't changed since October, before either the EPG, solar export, or my energy saving efforts kicked in (I'm not sure they ever took the EBSS into account either), defaulting to about £320.

Even with their lower suggestion my balance actually grew in December and January. I would have been even more ludicrous if I'd just left it alone. I've had to cut the DD even further to get the balance under control. I'll wait until we know what's happening after April before asking for any credit refund though.

brewerdave

Mstty said:

No guarantees as to what might happen and most suppliers are planning for the increase in prices from April EOG £2500 to £3000 so that accounts for 20% increase

BG don't appear to be ! They are suggesting my current DD is too high and want me to decrease it "to prevent me being in credit at plan end" -if I do what they suggest, I'll be £x00s in debit come December. Useless systems they have !!

Mstty

brewerdave said:

Mstty said:

No guarantees as to what might happen and most suppliers are planning for the increase in prices from April EOG £2500 to £3000 so that accounts for 20% increase

BG don't appear to be ! They are suggesting my current DD is too high and want me to decrease it "to prevent me being in credit at plan end" -if I do what they suggest, I'll be £x00s in debit come December. Useless systems they have !!

Use your feet and walk away from them...or your fingers lol

The more I hear from some energy companies the more I question peoples laziness in not moving to a company with better billing and customer service.

Only when they lose customers will they actually do something about it.