Used Car Values !!

Herzlos

Johnmcl7 said:

Herzlos said:

No matter how good EV's become and how good the infrastructure is, there are going to be a lot of luddites who'll hang onto  combustion cars long after it makes any actual sense and will keep the prices up as they grab up whatever stock is left.

I don't believe that for a moment and those who hang onto petrol cars will be doing it for a reason, I can see enthusiasts wanting to keep a hold of petrols for their noise and feel but once electric cars and their infrastructure improve to the point they are a better choice than existing petrols there's not going to be large numbers of people not changing just to be stubborn and no other reason.

I dunno, there are a few posters on here who've now spend years twisting everything they can find to try and claim EV's will never catch on and that they'll never buy one. We have to assume they are at least representative of some of the population thus it's fair to say that some will steadfastly stick to petrol even when it's objectively worst because they don't like electric.

There will also be, as you mention, enthusiasts who'll stick to petrol for the experience, who'll hopefully be driving BMW M5's and not 1.2 TCE Renault Clios.

Johnmcl7 said:

The problem is as the figures show we are still a long way from that point and I'd certainly consider an electric car when one was a suitable option but there's nothing even upcoming remotely close to what I'd consider a suitable replacement for my current petrol car.  Nothing to do with spite or stubborness over existing technology.

For most people we're already there. Average UK journey is about 8 miles, so a 100 mile EV would be fine and can be charged at home by anyone with a driveway.

I'd swap my current diesel car for the electric model if I could afford it, but I can't justify the £18k upgrade.

Johnmcl7 said:

In terms of decarbonising I reduced my day to day car usage almost entirely thanks to taking up cycling over ten years ago which is much greener than an electric car and has numerous other benefits.

I do the same - my car gets used as little as possible and I use the bike where I can.

But then we both know people who would drive their car 100ft down the road rather than walking. My parents wouldn't walk between the driveway and the house if they could help it. They will probably also refuse to get an EV despite it having been perfect for them since the Leaf launched in 2010.

Johnmcl7

Herzlos said:

Johnmcl7 said:

Herzlos said:

No matter how good EV's become and how good the infrastructure is, there are going to be a lot of luddites who'll hang onto  combustion cars long after it makes any actual sense and will keep the prices up as they grab up whatever stock is left.

I don't believe that for a moment and those who hang onto petrol cars will be doing it for a reason, I can see enthusiasts wanting to keep a hold of petrols for their noise and feel but once electric cars and their infrastructure improve to the point they are a better choice than existing petrols there's not going to be large numbers of people not changing just to be stubborn and no other reason.

I dunno, there are a few posters on here who've now spend years twisting everything they can find to try and claim EV's will never catch on and that they'll never buy one. We have to assume they are at least representative of some of the population thus it's fair to say that some will steadfastly stick to petrol even when it's objectively worst because they don't like electric.

There will also be, as you mention, enthusiasts who'll stick to petrol for the experience, who'll hopefully be driving BMW M5's and not 1.2 TCE Renault Clios.

Johnmcl7 said:

The problem is as the figures show we are still a long way from that point and I'd certainly consider an electric car when one was a suitable option but there's nothing even upcoming remotely close to what I'd consider a suitable replacement for my current petrol car.  Nothing to do with spite or stubborness over existing technology.

For most people we're already there. Average UK journey is about 8 miles, so a 100 mile EV would be fine and can be charged at home by anyone with a driveway.

I'd swap my current diesel car for the electric model if I could afford it, but I can't justify the £18k upgrade.

I doubt those vocal opponents of electric cars are any way representative of the general population, I've never met a single person who hasn't bought an electric car because they are die hards for petrol technology, it's just because an electric costs more and does less for their usage.

For most people, electric cars are most definitely not there and an average round trip of eight miles is completely meaningless.  You've even said it yourself, you'd swap your car for electric but can't justify the cost which is the case for many people choosing electric cars never mind getting onto other problems such as charging and range issues.  I have a large practical estate and for starters, no such car exists in electrical form and if it did it likely wouldn't be as good as the one I have and substantially more expensive.  

JKenH

Herzlos said:

JKenH said:

Herzlos said:

No matter how good EV's become and how good the infrastructure is, there are going to be a lot of luddites who'll hang onto  combustion cars long after it makes any actual sense and will keep the prices up as they grab up whatever stock is left.

We've already seen some car models go EV only - the Citroen Berlingo for instance, though after consumer demand they've agreed to start making some petrol/diesel models again but IIRC only the shorter base version.

EV supply will continue to rise because the government has set quotas. Ergo new ICE sales must fall to meet the quotas. It all depends whether EV demand keeps pace with supply. It only takes a small imbalance to move prices one way or the other. We saw how used EV prices shot up following demand when fuel prices rose and how they have since fallen as supply has increased faster than demand. The reverse has happened with ICE cars. 

What quotas? The average fleet emission thing?

EV's are definitely the easiest way to meet that, but they could have also done it by giving everything a 900cc turbo petrol engine.
EV's are selling well because people want to buy them.

JKenH said:

Talking of luddites: remember LPs? CD sales rose exponentially and now vinyl LP sales exceed CDs. CDs and LPs both had their pros and cons as do EVs and ICE cars. 

CD's were the first 'binary' recording medium, so they lost a little bit of audio resolution (because you have to record the nearest value and not the exact one) but virtually no-one outside of experienced musicians can hear it. They sold well because they were better than LP's but have now been completely superceded by lossless audio formats like AAC.

That LP's sell better than CD's now is because LP's are retro are fashionable. Whilst some people claim the LP sounds better than a CD it's unlikely it is anything other than nostalgia.

Quotas?Car makers must sell 22% EVs in 2024 or face huge fines under tough proposals
At least 22 per cent of the cars manufacturers sell next year will have to be electric – or they could face fines of up to £15,000 per car they miss their target by.

https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/car-makers-must-sell-22-evs-in-2024-or-face-huge-fines-under-tough-proposals/282071

AAC vs CD


Although they are universally described in the mainstream press as being of "CD quality," MP3s and their lossy-compressed ilk do not offer sufficient audio quality for serious music listening. This is not true of lossless-compressed formats such as FLAC, ALAC, and WMA lossless—in fact, it was the release of iTunes 4.5, in late 2003, which allowed iPods to play lossless files, that led us to welcome the ubiquitous Apple player to the world of high-end audio. But lossy files achieve their conveniently small size by discarding too much of the music to be worth considering.

https://www.stereophile.com/features/308mp3cd/index.html

I don’t disagree with your comparison of CDs and Vinyl but some people obviously like the characteristics of LPs over the anodyne experience of CDs just as others may prefer the characteristics of ICEs over EVs. I had EVs for 3 years and thought they were such a huge step forward to drive I quickly sold both my Golf and Mercedes sports car. I said Ikd never wanted to drive an ICE car again. Even charging was an exciting new adventure.  

It’s a bit like anything new, at first, all exciting and different but then the reality of living with it sets in and you notice it isn’t all roses. If I never needed to charge away from home I would still be in an EV today but I had so many bad experiences charging that I went back to petrol and haven’t regretted it. I wonder how many of the people getting their EVs on SalSac schemes have had a few regrets, particularly if they had no previous experience of EVs. It’s hard to admit one has made a mistake particularly if you are tied in to your new EV for 3 or 4 years but it will be interesting to see how many current EV drivers have a change of heart next time round. 

Herzlos

There's definitely a bit of a price difference between petrol and battery at the moment, but like for like the battery shouldn't work out much more expensive overall.

My comparison was bad because I'm talking about trading a 2 year old diesel in for a new EV, because there aren't any used EV's yet. I believe the list price difference was about £6k but they also stopped selling the diesel ones so it's hard to compare directly.

I can see that the Corsa is about £20k new for petrol and £32k for EV, which is a steep ask.

Grumpy_chap

twopenny said:

with petrol you can take petrol to the car. You can't do that (yet) with electric charge.

There are products available:
https://www.parkers.co.uk/electric-cars/portable-electric-vehicle-chargers/

It seems plausible that breakdown services would equip their response vehicles with something like that.

Car_54

Grumpy_chap said:

twopenny said:

with petrol you can take petrol to the car. You can't do that (yet) with electric charge.

There are products available:
https://www.parkers.co.uk/electric-cars/portable-electric-vehicle-chargers/

It seems plausible that breakdown services would equip their response vehicles with something like that.

It says "... the Go is available through a subscription model, starting from £49 per month, if drivers don’t want to purchase the device outright."
So £600 pa to rent. Maybe £2,000-ish to buy?
It also offers GoHubs. "These are modular charging stations, where the Zipcharge portable vehicle charger can be borrowed, wheeled to your electric car to charge it while you shop. The driver than wheels the device back to the charging dock for the next customer." 
So while you're shopping, you've left a highly-portable £2,000 device unattended and unsecured. What could possibly go wrong?

Herzlos

Grumpy_chap said:

twopenny said:

with petrol you can take petrol to the car. You can't do that (yet) with electric charge.

There are products available:
https://www.parkers.co.uk/electric-cars/portable-electric-vehicle-chargers/

It seems plausible that breakdown services would equip their response vehicles with something like that.

All of the big breakdown companies have EV charging vehicles, who presumably have a battery/generator in the van. I believe many of the standard vans will also have something that'll provide enough charge to get you to a proper charging point.

You probably won't be able to get the equivalent of walking to a petrol station and buying a can of fuel, but you still won't be totally stranded.

peter12345678910

Herzlos said:

JKenH said:

Herzlos said:

No matter how good EV's become and how good the infrastructure is, there are going to be a lot of luddites who'll hang onto  combustion cars long after it makes any actual sense and will keep the prices up as they grab up whatever stock is left.

We've already seen some car models go EV only - the Citroen Berlingo for instance, though after consumer demand they've agreed to start making some petrol/diesel models again but IIRC only the shorter base version.

EV supply will continue to rise because the government has set quotas. Ergo new ICE sales must fall to meet the quotas. It all depends whether EV demand keeps pace with supply. It only takes a small imbalance to move prices one way or the other. We saw how used EV prices shot up following demand when fuel prices rose and how they have since fallen as supply has increased faster than demand. The reverse has happened with ICE cars. 

What quotas? The average fleet emission thing?

EV's are definitely the easiest way to meet that, but they could have also done it by giving everything a 900cc turbo petrol engine.
EV's are selling well because people want to buy them.

JKenH said:

Talking of luddites: remember LPs? CD sales rose exponentially and now vinyl LP sales exceed CDs. CDs and LPs both had their pros and cons as do EVs and ICE cars. 

CD's were the first 'binary' recording medium, so they lost a little bit of audio resolution (because you have to record the nearest value and not the exact one) but virtually no-one outside of experienced musicians can hear it. They sold well because they were better than LP's but have now been completely superceded by lossless audio formats like AAC.

That LP's sell better than CD's now is because LP's are retro are fashionable. Whilst some people claim the LP sounds better than a CD it's unlikely it is anything other than nostalgia.

I think the mastering is better on records. Though my ears cannot tell the difference between hi resolution audio and mp3. SACD also has better remastering which makes it sound better. Consider also the Made In Mono series which were Beatles albums only released on LP which were remastered using only analogue equipment.

Though EV do appear to be greener. It is the making of these batteries that is less green.... 

JKenH

Tesla has been making the headlines with falling values but other EVs have fared worse.

Hyundai Ioniq named as EV that loses consumers the most among electric cars

The study showed that on average EVs will lose 51 per cent of their purchase value from 2020 to 2023 versus 37 per cent for petrol vehicles.

https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/hyundai-ioniq-named-as-ev-that-loses-consumers-the-most-among-electric-cars/283398

JKenH

Used electric car prices still falling fast as buyers continue to shun EVs

Used electric cars are still plummeting in price with another 4.1 per cent wiped off their value in May alone.

Martin explained that it has been a mixed picture for electric car values, despite the headline 4.1 per cent drop.

He said some have actually stabilised in value – the Tesla Model 3 and Model Y saw values remain static during the month after dramatic price falls since October. 

Martin said: ‘Whereas over the last few months, most things have been dropping and dropping quickly – some are 30 to 40 per cent down over that period now. 

‘What you’ve got now is you’ve got vehicles flattening out, so the Model 3 Tesla and Model Y, have actually been stable this month. 

‘They haven’t dropped at all and the Model 3 actually dropped at the start of May and then we put it back up again because it’s recovered and it now looks quite good value for money.’

https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/used-electric-car-prices-still-falling-fast-as-buyers-continue-to-shun-evs/284735