Estate Agents being “clever”

Gavin83

badger09 said:

fackers_2 said:

jimbog said:

RedfordML said:

Saw a house we liked that over the previous 2 months dropped from 550k, to 525k to 499k at Xmas. 

Going back on Rightmove having firmed up our interest and finance, the exact house was “reduced yesterday” to £525k. 

Now, how would you play this? 

Put an offer as to what you feel it's worth to you. Sitting, hoping for the price to crash would be pure folly

……. 

Market currently in free fall, savings to be made  

TonyTeacake said:

fackers_2 said:

jimbog said:

RedfordML said:

Saw a house we liked that over the previous 2 months dropped from 550k, to 525k to 499k at Xmas. 

Going back on Rightmove having firmed up our interest and finance, the exact house was “reduced yesterday” to £525k. 

Now, how would you play this? 

Put an offer as to what you feel it's worth to you. Sitting, hoping for the price to crash would be pure folly

Why would it be? Because wouldn’t you want to save money on a property or anything at that matter. 

Market currently in free fall, savings to be made  

I have to agree with Fackers on this one as the market is in freefall. Official data from the Land Registry has shown a slight drop in official prices and we need to bear in mind this will of been for houses sold around April-May 2022, so there will be more falls to show in the upcoming months which will be greater due to the strains of the cost of living crisis and rising interest rates. Halifax and Nationwide have also reported falls in house prices over the last 4 months. 

Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said:

“December saw a further sharp slowdown in annual house price growth to 2.8%, from 4.4% in November. Prices fell by 0.1% month-on-month – a much smaller decline than in the previous couple of months. However, December also marked the fourth consecutive monthly price fall - the worst run since 2008, which left prices 2.5% lower than their August peak (after taking account of seasonal effects).

…………

It looks like we are at the front end of a major crash in the housing market.

Usually I CBA engaging in these ‘discussions’ but it’s quite a leap from ‘a slight drop in official prices’ and ‘a slow down in annual house price growth’
to ‘market currently in free fall’ and ‘the front end of a major crash in the housing market’. Hyperbole anyone?

Nothing exaggerated about my comments at all. If I told you 3 years ago house prices would rise over 20-30% over the next couple of years would you say I am exaggerating?

Did you say that 3 years ago or did you actually predict a crash then as well?

TonyTeacake

MobileSaver said:

TonyTeacake said:

MobileSaver said:

TonyTeacake said:

we are at the front end of a crash ... This will take at least 2-3 years if not more before we see the bottom of this market and all of the covid gains will be erased from house prices, I predict we will see 20-50% drops depending on where you live.

So 3 years from now house prices in some areas might be down by 20% but as inflation is around 9% annually that means in real terms you'll still be paying more for a house?!?! That's your new definition of a crash? LOL

TonyTeacake said:

I predict we will see 20-50% drops depending on where you live.

Where will these 50% off houses come from? Which areas? Myself and other cash-rich friends would love to pick up some bargains, the yield will be great on half-price houses...

TonyTeacake said:

Like I was saying last year rampant inflation will bring everything down and I know most on here were saying it will be a minor blip.

Huh? Inflation came down last month and indeed according to your definition inflation is now "in freefall" since it came down 0.1%!

Over the next few months you will see the official data saying the housing market is in freefall just like I predicted so then you and your cash rich friends will be to buy all of the UK property up.

You didn't answer the main question, where are all these 50% off houses going to come from?

Wages are up and materials are up massively so how many half-price houses do you think builders will be building over the next 2 to 3 years?

TonyTeacake said:

I wouldn't of thought a tycoon like yourself would have the time to post on these forums.

I think you are massively underestimating how many people in the UK are cash-rich and would jump at the chance of buying a half-price house. You don't need to be a billionaire to be able to buy a £280,000 house for £140,000 without the need for a mortgage...

Mortgage affordability for most FTB has been reduced by 30% in the last 12 months. Mass layoffs already started just as predicted. Rampant inflation will linger for a very long time and a serious cost of living crisis. There you have it all in a nutshell.

TonyTeacake

Gavin83 said:

badger09 said:

fackers_2 said:

jimbog said:

RedfordML said:

Saw a house we liked that over the previous 2 months dropped from 550k, to 525k to 499k at Xmas. 

Going back on Rightmove having firmed up our interest and finance, the exact house was “reduced yesterday” to £525k. 

Now, how would you play this? 

Put an offer as to what you feel it's worth to you. Sitting, hoping for the price to crash would be pure folly

……. 

Market currently in free fall, savings to be made  

TonyTeacake said:

fackers_2 said:

jimbog said:

RedfordML said:

Saw a house we liked that over the previous 2 months dropped from 550k, to 525k to 499k at Xmas. 

Going back on Rightmove having firmed up our interest and finance, the exact house was “reduced yesterday” to £525k. 

Now, how would you play this? 

Put an offer as to what you feel it's worth to you. Sitting, hoping for the price to crash would be pure folly

Why would it be? Because wouldn’t you want to save money on a property or anything at that matter. 

Market currently in free fall, savings to be made  

I have to agree with Fackers on this one as the market is in freefall. Official data from the Land Registry has shown a slight drop in official prices and we need to bear in mind this will of been for houses sold around April-May 2022, so there will be more falls to show in the upcoming months which will be greater due to the strains of the cost of living crisis and rising interest rates. Halifax and Nationwide have also reported falls in house prices over the last 4 months. 

Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said:

“December saw a further sharp slowdown in annual house price growth to 2.8%, from 4.4% in November. Prices fell by 0.1% month-on-month – a much smaller decline than in the previous couple of months. However, December also marked the fourth consecutive monthly price fall - the worst run since 2008, which left prices 2.5% lower than their August peak (after taking account of seasonal effects).

…………

It looks like we are at the front end of a major crash in the housing market.

Usually I CBA engaging in these ‘discussions’ but it’s quite a leap from ‘a slight drop in official prices’ and ‘a slow down in annual house price growth’
to ‘market currently in free fall’ and ‘the front end of a major crash in the housing market’. Hyperbole anyone?

Nothing exaggerated about my comments at all. If I told you 3 years ago house prices would rise over 20-30% over the next couple of years would you say I am exaggerating?

Did you say that 3 years ago or did you actually predict a crash then as well?

No, but when I saw this bubble inflating during the pandemic I could see this will not end well and it will end in a massive crash which we will see play out over the next 2-3 years.

mi-key

Odd how all the experts involved are predicting a drop of 10% or less over the next year, and that is based on sales prices including the last few months, which funnily enough the mortgage lenders know exactly !. Apart from you I haven't seen anyone suggesting 50% or anyone other than individuals on forums saying this...

MobileSaver

TonyTeacake said:

MobileSaver said:

TonyTeacake said:

MobileSaver said:

TonyTeacake said:

we are at the front end of a crash ... This will take at least 2-3 years if not more before we see the bottom of this market and all of the covid gains will be erased from house prices, I predict we will see 20-50% drops depending on where you live.

So 3 years from now house prices in some areas might be down by 20% but as inflation is around 9% annually that means in real terms you'll still be paying more for a house?!?! That's your new definition of a crash? LOL

TonyTeacake said:

I predict we will see 20-50% drops depending on where you live.

Where will these 50% off houses come from? Which areas? Myself and other cash-rich friends would love to pick up some bargains, the yield will be great on half-price houses...

TonyTeacake said:

Like I was saying last year rampant inflation will bring everything down and I know most on here were saying it will be a minor blip.

Huh? Inflation came down last month and indeed according to your definition inflation is now "in freefall" since it came down 0.1%!

Over the next few months you will see the official data saying the housing market is in freefall just like I predicted so then you and your cash rich friends will be to buy all of the UK property up.

You didn't answer the main question, where are all these 50% off houses going to come from?

Wages are up and materials are up massively so how many half-price houses do you think builders will be building over the next 2 to 3 years?

TonyTeacake said:

I wouldn't of thought a tycoon like yourself would have the time to post on these forums.

I think you are massively underestimating how many people in the UK are cash-rich and would jump at the chance of buying a half-price house. You don't need to be a billionaire to be able to buy a £280,000 house for £140,000 without the need for a mortgage...

Mass layoffs already started just as predicted. Rampant inflation will linger for a very long time and a serious cost of living crisis.

So you've given a couple of reasons why the poorest in society (you know, the ones who typically rent and weren't planning on buying a house anyway) will struggle even more but you are still unwilling or unable to answer where all these 50% off houses are going to come from?

Wages are up and home-building material costs are up massively so how many half-price houses do you think builders will still be building in 3 years time?

TonyTeacake

MobileSaver said:

TonyTeacake said:

MobileSaver said:

TonyTeacake said:

MobileSaver said:

TonyTeacake said:

we are at the front end of a crash ... This will take at least 2-3 years if not more before we see the bottom of this market and all of the covid gains will be erased from house prices, I predict we will see 20-50% drops depending on where you live.

So 3 years from now house prices in some areas might be down by 20% but as inflation is around 9% annually that means in real terms you'll still be paying more for a house?!?! That's your new definition of a crash? LOL

TonyTeacake said:

I predict we will see 20-50% drops depending on where you live.

Where will these 50% off houses come from? Which areas? Myself and other cash-rich friends would love to pick up some bargains, the yield will be great on half-price houses...

TonyTeacake said:

Like I was saying last year rampant inflation will bring everything down and I know most on here were saying it will be a minor blip.

Huh? Inflation came down last month and indeed according to your definition inflation is now "in freefall" since it came down 0.1%!

Over the next few months you will see the official data saying the housing market is in freefall just like I predicted so then you and your cash rich friends will be to buy all of the UK property up.

You didn't answer the main question, where are all these 50% off houses going to come from?

Wages are up and materials are up massively so how many half-price houses do you think builders will be building over the next 2 to 3 years?

TonyTeacake said:

I wouldn't of thought a tycoon like yourself would have the time to post on these forums.

I think you are massively underestimating how many people in the UK are cash-rich and would jump at the chance of buying a half-price house. You don't need to be a billionaire to be able to buy a £280,000 house for £140,000 without the need for a mortgage...

Mass layoffs already started just as predicted. Rampant inflation will linger for a very long time and a serious cost of living crisis.

So you've given a couple of reasons why the poorest in society (you know, the ones who typically rent and weren't planning on buying a house anyway) will struggle even more but you are still unwilling or unable to answer where all these 50% off houses are going to come from?

Wages are up and home-building material costs are up massively so how many half-price houses do you think builders will still be building in 3 years time?

Richard, It is not just the poorest in society who are feeling the effects of the cost of living crisis, many with mortgages are now feeling the effects of interest rate hikes now their fixed rate term has ended.

Here is a example: you are buying your first home based on a joint salary of £60,000 a year will get you a mortgage of £295,000 based on a £30,000 deposit so they can borrow £265,000 over a period of 25 years. Repayment of £1600 a month at a 5% interest rate over 5 years based on a joint salary of £60,000 a year

Rewind 2 years the same couple could have achieved a rate of around 2% paying nearly £500 less a month on their mortgage payment based on a property of £295,000. 

Also, you need to factor in everything else that has gone up in price with the cost of living crisis, the figures are not lying Richard and it looks like your argument has so many flaws.

MobileSaver

TonyTeacake said:

MobileSaver said:

TonyTeacake said:

MobileSaver said:

TonyTeacake said:

MobileSaver said:

TonyTeacake said:

we are at the front end of a crash ... This will take at least 2-3 years if not more before we see the bottom of this market and all of the covid gains will be erased from house prices, I predict we will see 20-50% drops depending on where you live.

So 3 years from now house prices in some areas might be down by 20% but as inflation is around 9% annually that means in real terms you'll still be paying more for a house?!?! That's your new definition of a crash? LOL

TonyTeacake said:

I predict we will see 20-50% drops depending on where you live.

Where will these 50% off houses come from? Which areas? Myself and other cash-rich friends would love to pick up some bargains, the yield will be great on half-price houses...

TonyTeacake said:

Like I was saying last year rampant inflation will bring everything down and I know most on here were saying it will be a minor blip.

Huh? Inflation came down last month and indeed according to your definition inflation is now "in freefall" since it came down 0.1%!

Over the next few months you will see the official data saying the housing market is in freefall just like I predicted so then you and your cash rich friends will be to buy all of the UK property up.

You didn't answer the main question, where are all these 50% off houses going to come from?

Wages are up and materials are up massively so how many half-price houses do you think builders will be building over the next 2 to 3 years?

TonyTeacake said:

I wouldn't of thought a tycoon like yourself would have the time to post on these forums.

I think you are massively underestimating how many people in the UK are cash-rich and would jump at the chance of buying a half-price house. You don't need to be a billionaire to be able to buy a £280,000 house for £140,000 without the need for a mortgage...

Mass layoffs already started just as predicted. Rampant inflation will linger for a very long time and a serious cost of living crisis.

So you've given a couple of reasons why the poorest in society (you know, the ones who typically rent and weren't planning on buying a house anyway) will struggle even more but you are still unwilling or unable to answer where all these 50% off houses are going to come from?

Wages are up and home-building material costs are up massively so how many half-price houses do you think builders will still be building in 3 years time?

it looks like your argument has so many flaws.

I'm not arguing anything, I've simply asked you a question three times and you have failed to answer three times... I wonder why that might be?

Some people might think that rather than having a sound rational reason for why house prices might drop 50% instead you just came up with some random numbers that you thought sounded cool...

MobileSaver

TonyTeacake said:

This will take at least 2-3 years if not more before we see the bottom of this market ... I predict we will see 20-50% drops depending on where you live.

For what it's worth I predict house prices in 3 years time will be around the same as now or a bit higher and anyone holding off for 50% drops is going to be seriously disappointed when they realise they've simply been paying off their landlord's mortgage for the last three years...