Simplest Drawdown Investment Portfolio?

Albermarle

This time however at the end of 21 and most of 22 there has been very little bounce back and my feeling is this could stay like this for another two to three years at least.

Just be aware that this 'feeling' is just that. Probably unduly affected by watching the news too closely.

Markets look ahead and they will often go up, even when the real economic news is at its worst, as they are looking at what happens in one or two years time.

The reality nobody knows what will happen with financial markets in the next two years.

gm0

You don't need to work all the way to answers to the various options/choices/diversions I raised. As you would for DIY.   Not as IFA fact find prep.  It would be good to read a little and be aware of what these various things are as this will help get more value from and confidence in the subsequent discussions about the recommendation.  The adviser will have to explain some of it.  Especially some things that the regulator forces them to produce - some are non-obvious to someone new to the subject e.g. critical yield.

For advice preparation you can helpfully understand that various questions and choices exist as well as being clear on your needs, wants and goals.  Hopefully you will be convinced that your adviser is handling your case sensibly and professionally in the round i.e. they have addressed these choices in a sensible manner for you. And their answers when asked a few questions about the choices and tradeoffs are OK.  Is the recommendation convincing.  And when asked a question about it - are they.

Good luck

GSP

Albermarle said:

This time however at the end of 21 and most of 22 there has been very little bounce back and my feeling is this could stay like this for another two to three years at least.

Just be aware that this 'feeling' is just that. Probably unduly affected by watching the news too closely.

Markets look ahead and they will often go up, even when the real economic news is at its worst, as they are looking at what happens in one or two years time.

The reality nobody knows what will happen with financial markets in the next two years.

Too true, thanks.

GSP

gm0 said:

You don't need to work all the way to answers to the various options/choices/diversions I raised. As you would for DIY.   Not as IFA fact find prep.  It would be good to read a little and be aware of what these various things are as this will help get more value from and confidence in the subsequent discussions about the recommendation.  The adviser will have to explain some of it.  Especially some things that the regulator forces them to produce - some are non-obvious to someone new to the subject e.g. critical yield.

For advice preparation you can helpfully understand that various questions and choices exist as well as being clear on your needs, wants and goals.  Hopefully you will be convinced that your adviser is handling your case sensibly and professionally in the round i.e. they have addressed these choices in a sensible manner for you. And their answers when asked a few questions about the choices and tradeoffs are OK.  Is the recommendation convincing.  And when asked a question about it - are they.

Good luck

Thank you.

bostonerimus

GSP said:

bostonerimus said:

I would double and triple check your logic for transferring out of your DB scheme, particularly in light of the recent turmoil in stock and bond markets.

If you are still convinced that drawdown is right for you and you want a relatively simple approach I would search for "Target Retirement Date" or "LifeStrategy" funds. This will give you a diversified portfolio of funds in a single fund with a mix of stocks and bonds. The Target Date fund will change it's allocation to stocks and bonds as you get older. Also research "Bogleheads" and "Guyton Klinger" to understand simple investing portfolios and withdrawal methods.

Sorry and thanks for replying bostonerimus.
For some reason I put the DB mention as a scenario, but I have already transferred out 5 years ago. 

The bit I wanted people to focus on was drawdown and having the fewest investments possible and keeping it simple.
Sorry if I went a strange way about it.

OK if DB is off the table then put a 2 year cash reserve in the bank the rest in a low cost multi-asset fund with an asset allocation you can live with and works with any other income sources you have and read up on Guyton-Klinger. But first do a budget and make sure you have a detailed handle on your spending.

GSP

Albermarle said:

This time however at the end of 21 and most of 22 there has been very little bounce back and my feeling is this could stay like this for another two to three years at least.

Just be aware that this 'feeling' is just that. Probably unduly affected by watching the news too closely.

Markets look ahead and they will often go up, even when the real economic news is at its worst, as they are looking at what happens in one or two years time.

The reality nobody knows what will happen with financial markets in the next two years.

This commentator feels this year will be worse than 2022.
Thoughts anyone?
https://youtu.be/3oolGgBBVFE

Secret2ndAccount

It's a good video. He covers a lot of relevant points, and talks a lot of sense. But he doesn't say 2023 will be worse than 2022. The title (otherwise known as the hook or the clickbait) says it could be. Well of course it could be, but if you follow through his arguments he isn't painting a picture of doom; he's describing a path to where things turn upwards again.
The fly in the ointment could be that increasing of interest rates is a pretty blunt tool to try to create unemployment. There could be quite a lot of collateral harm, which then takes a long time to sort out. Otherwise, he says (and I agree) that inflation is on the way down, and there is some visibility towards a point where interest rates start to fall again.
As Albermarle points out, expect the markets to be on the way up at the first sniff that central banks are done with rate increases.

Detail point: central banks are engaged in quantitative tightening right now. That's equivalent in many ways to further raising interest rates. So if they just stop raising rates, we need to burn through the QT phase too before I will get too excited.

GSP

Secret2ndAccount said:

It's a good video. He covers a lot of relevant points, and talks a lot of sense. But he doesn't say 2023 will be worse than 2022. The title (otherwise known as the hook or the clickbait) says it could be. Well of course it could be, but if you follow through his arguments he isn't painting a picture of doom; he's describing a path to where things turn upwards again.
The fly in the ointment could be that increasing of interest rates is a pretty blunt tool to try to create unemployment. There could be quite a lot of collateral harm, which then takes a long time to sort out. Otherwise, he says (and I agree) that inflation is on the way down, and there is some visibility towards a point where interest rates start to fall again.
As Albermarle points out, expect the markets to be on the way up at the first sniff that central banks are done with rate increases.

Detail point: central banks are engaged in quantitative tightening right now. That's equivalent in many ways to further raising interest rates. So if they just stop raising rates, we need to burn through the QT phase too before I will get too excited.

Inflation is a ‘strange one’, as being an annual metric, I believe, if it goes down but is still running at say 2% means prices themselves haven’t gone down. The way food prices have gone up I’d like to see a large negative inflation figure really meaning food prices maybe turning to the values they were 12 to 18 months ago.
Sure it won’t happen though!

Albermarle

Negative inflation is normally something to be avoided/feared, in economic terms at least. The problem is that people hold off buying things in the expectation they will drop further in price.
Maybe though, after this exceptional period, a short period of negative inflation, after a fall in food and energy prices, may not be such a bad thing.