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Odds of winning

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jetolan
jetolan Posts: 3 Newbie
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edited 7 February 2023 at 10:31AM in Compers chat corner
The National Lottery publicises its odds of winning but does anyone know the odds relating to ITV competitions ie Good Morning, X Factor, Dickinson's Real Deal. And big money competitions such as Omaze?
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  • mjm3346
    mjm3346 Posts: 47,003 Forumite
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    This should be posted in the chat section

    https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/categories/compers-chat-corner

    Apart from the lottery which doesn't have to have a winner or may have multiple ones all the other competitions you mention draw a winner from all the entries received so the odds will vary depending on the total number of entries and how many an individual has
  • jetolan
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    The lottery has different numbers of entries and can still give an estimate of the odds. I think as a matter of principle, these competitions should at least give indicative odds of winning.
  • mjm3346
    mjm3346 Posts: 47,003 Forumite
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    jetolan said:
    The lottery has different numbers of entries and can still give an estimate of the odds. I think as a matter of principle, these competitions should at least give indicative odds of winning.
    The number of entries into the lottery is irrelevant the odds are simply the chances of matching 6 numbers from 59 often there is no winner sometimes there are several but the odds do not change simply because the number of entries does.
    With the other competitions a winner is drawn from all the entries received so the odds change as the number of entries change and unlike the Lottery there is always a winner.
  • jetolan
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    Thanks for your responses.
    However, there are numerous competitions that are very heavily marketed (eg Good Morning Britain) with absolutely no indication of the likelihood of winning. I understand that these are pure money-making ventures but I still think that we are not pressured into buying anything else with no idea of the likelihood of a return. Surely, the odds of having won previous competitions could be published? For example, were you more likely to win Dickinson's Real Deal or Good Morning Britain for your £2 outlay? There is often footage of delighted winners with an exhortation to be "in it to win it". This is an appeal to people for whom £2 might be a significant sum.
  • mjm3346
    mjm3346 Posts: 47,003 Forumite
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    jetolan said:
    Thanks for your responses.
    However, there are numerous competitions that are very heavily marketed (eg Good Morning Britain) with absolutely no indication of the likelihood of winning. I understand that these are pure money-making ventures but I still think that we are not pressured into buying anything else with no idea of the likelihood of a return. Surely, the odds of having won previous competitions could be published? For example, were you more likely to win Dickinson's Real Deal or Good Morning Britain for your £2 outlay? There is often footage of delighted winners with an exhortation to be "in it to win it". This is an appeal to people for whom £2 might be a significant sum.
    You know that there will be a winner drawn from all the entries made (unlike the lottery) and if £2 spent on the cost of entry matters then whether the odds were 1 in a 100 or 1 in 10,000,000 it shouldn't matter as the money shouldn't be being spent in the first place, particularly when there is a free entry route. 
    Several years ago ITV were getting about 40,000,000 paid entries a year  - with the bogof and other offers almost certainly well  over 1,000,000 entries a week that should be enough of a "ball park" figure to show how close to zero your chances of winning are and the same will go for many competitions you pay to enter (the lotto generally has very poor odds compared to a bet on the same thing)
  • BootsMullery
    BootsMullery Posts: 2,954 Forumite
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    Move to CCC requested.
    Bob
  • MSE_ForumTeam5
    MSE_ForumTeam5 Posts: 1,062 Community Admin
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    Move to CCC completed :smile:

    Official MSE Forum Team member. Please use the 'report' button to alert us to problem posts, or email forumteam@moneysavingexpert.com
  • pate-ci0
    pate-ci0 Posts: 2,600 Forumite
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    edited 7 February 2023 at 5:05PM
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    As mjm points out, where there is a free entry route there should be no need to pay £2 to enter and as with most other competitions on here, just enter and forget, then be pleasantly surprised if you win. The odds of winning are pretty much irrelevant, though perhaps interesting from an informative point of view.
    I have always used the free entry route to enter these competitions and along with others on this forum I have won a substantial prize from one of them.
  • Joolski
    Joolski Posts: 200 Forumite
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    pate-ci0 said:
    As mjm points out, where there is a free entry route there should be no need to pay £2 to enter and as with most other competitions on here, just enter and forget, then be pleasantly surprised if you win. The odds of winning are pretty much irrelevant, though perhaps interesting from an informative point of view.
    I have always used the free entry route to enter these competitions and along with others on this forum I have won a substantial prize from one of them.
    I've not seen a Free Entry route on the ITV comps - am I missing something??
  • BootsMullery
    BootsMullery Posts: 2,954 Forumite
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    edited 7 February 2023 at 9:05PM
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    Joolski said:
    pate-ci0 said:
    As mjm points out, where there is a free entry route there should be no need to pay £2 to enter and as with most other competitions on here, just enter and forget, then be pleasantly surprised if you win. The odds of winning are pretty much irrelevant, though perhaps interesting from an informative point of view.
    I have always used the free entry route to enter these competitions and along with others on this forum I have won a substantial prize from one of them.
    I've not seen a Free Entry route on the ITV comps - am I missing something??
    Read the T&C's. 
    Current Tipping Point Comp T&C's:-

    Post Name and Number to:
    TP 224, PO Box 7558, Derby, DE1 0NQ

    Here's your chance to win £17,000 with Tipping Point!

    This is for the prize draw running on the show during the week of 6th February.

    Entrants must be 18+. Entries after lines close at 10am on Monday 13th February will not count & may still be charged. Postal entry closes at 4pm on Thursday 16th February.

    You have to pay for postage but there is no charge for entering.
    This is classed as a free entry route.

    Real Deal:
    Post Name and Number to:
    DRD 0986, PO Box 7558, Derby, DE1 0NQ

    Same for most of the others except Winsday comps which are only available online.
    Bob
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