Retirement - Live Life or Penny Pinch

[Deleted User]

Sorry but that is simply untrue. 

Exactly. I was going to dig out the stats but you’ve done it for us

Linton

Miiade said:

As someone who visits about 100 pensioners a week in their own homes, here is my take on life expectancy for men.

Out of these visits I regularly see short men 5ft 7 or under well into their 80 or 90s. All of these men are of average weight. Seldom do I see any males above this height in this age bracket.

Clearly there will be some tall males out there who live a long life, but I am not seeing them.

Based on my observations if you are a tall male spend your DC pot early, if you are a short male make sure you have got some left for later…

mmmmm
 - people get shorter as they age, about 1cm per decade after age 40 - https://medlineplus.gov/ency/article/003998.htm . Some of your "short men" were tall.
 - people aged 82-100 now were born in the 1930s.  Poor nutrition had a serious affect on many people's health.

Spivo46

Linton said:

Deleted_User said:

Spivo46 said:

With a Medium sized pension (300 to 400k) at retirement that you know won't last till you are 100. Do you enjoy retirement for 20 years or live a very modest life knowing you will have some pension left when you are very old and unlikely to enjoy it?? Isn't retirement for living?

We're retired early in our 50's. 

Based upon family genetics it's unlikely that we'll bet beyond low eighties. Predictions about increased life expectancy are misleading as reduction in EARLY deaths is what's bumping up life expectancy figures. So if your dad was a miner and died at 68 you'll probably live longer than him. But if your dad was a civil servant that died at 78 chances are that's what you can expect.

So we figure we are unlikely to be healthy enough to live life to the full after mid 70's - looking around....that's when the problems start with one partner or other.

Therefore, we aim to draw down on savings and pension until early 70's then sell our home and take it from there. I don't want to be saving money for when I'm not healthy enough to enjoy it.

Sorry but that is simply untrue.  You can look up the Office of National Statistics 2020 statistics for the median age at death for males who reached 65 in the specified year (2010 and 2020 are estimated):

1960 - 77
1970 - 77
1980 - 79 
1990 - 81
2000 - 84
2010 - 85
2020 - 86

Or to use your dead by 78 example, the % of males not reaching 79 years old when 65 in the specified year (2010 and 2020 estimated) was:

1960 - 62%
1970 - 60%
1980 - 49%
1990 - 45%
2000 - 34%
2010 - 30%
2020 - 27%



Females on average live about 3 years longer than males

There is of course a 50% chance that you will live longer than the median age.  It's a very high risk to assume you will live substantially fewer years.

One reason for the increase is greatly improved medical treatment - many fatal conditions can now be cured or ameliorated.  Also I guess the great reduction in smoking will have had a significant effect.

As someone at your "sell our home" date (where will you live?) I see no reason whatsoever to cut back on our planned expenditure.  It has remained pretty constant in real terms for 20 years.   Fortunately I planned on the basis of living into my 90's with pessimistic assumptions on inflation and investment return.
,

Will work on 86 then! But you are Toast if over 6 feet tall so get your dosh spent!

eskbanker

Linton said:

 - people aged 82-100 now were born in the 1930s.  Poor nutrition had a serious affect on many people's health.

It must have been a hard decade if it lasted 18 years

Miiade

Linton, no idea if my observations are factually correct, but I can honestly say I do not see tall older men in their own homes. See this pattern day in day out.

I seem to recall that a study was done on basketball players that said that life expectancy was found to be lower for these men, so maybe height is a factor in life expectancy. 

enthusiasticsaver

Interesting observations here. 

None of us know how long we will live but we were told the early years are most expensive and average length of stay in nursing home is 18 months. Our IFA cash flowed our portfolio and based on our lifestyle and income suggested that we would run out of money at about 100 if we withdrew around £20k per annum on top of DB pensions and state pensions. We retired at 58  on DB pensions and state pensions kick in in 2024 and 2026. We have only really spent out on travel this year and 2019 so not withdrawn from portfolio at all. Will start next year though. I would say do what you want while healthy within reason as I know lots who are struggling now with health issues. I certainly wouldn’t penny pinch at the beginning of retirement unless we were on a really low income. We would not have taken early retirement in those circumstances though.

[Deleted User]

Miiade said:

As someone who visits about 100 pensioners a week in their own homes, here is my take on life expectancy for men.

Out of these visits I regularly see short men 5ft 7 or under well into their 80 or 90s. All of these men are of average weight. Seldom do I see any males above this height in this age bracket.

Clearly there will be some tall males out there who live a long life, but I am not seeing them.

Based on my observations if you are a tall male spend your DC pot early, if you are a short male make sure you have got some left for later…

Call me a skeptic. Are you talking about males? Females? Both?  This is the kind of “expert” recommendation people should run from when deciding on spending patterns.  

Anecdote isn’t data.  Why do you visit the elderly? Social Services?  Could be other reasons for you seeing lots of short people, like income to height correlation or the fact people who are now in the 90s are from a generation that was shorter than todays 50 year olds due to poorer nutrition in childhood. 

There are a couple of small studies furnished by Google which claim negative correlation between height and longevity.  Like something about Italian soldiers from the last century. Another study looked at 7’ basketball players. The third one claims women live longer because they are shorter.  These are all very special cases and small studies.  There are also studies which directly contradict the assertion.  Like this one:  https://www.phillyvoice.com/taller-women-height-weight-live-longer-life-expectancy-longevity/

And let’s hypothetically say that there is some negative correlation and people over 5’7 have a  smaller chance of living past 80.  Say its only 10% for a 6’ newly minted  65 year old retiree.  Does a 10% chance of dying penniless because of following chatroom “advice” seem attractive? 

My father in law is 6’, 93 years old. May have lost an inch with age. Not aware of any social services visits.   

eskbanker

Deleted_User said:

Miiade said:

As someone who visits about 100 pensioners a week in their own homes, here is my take on life expectancy for men.

Out of these visits I regularly see short men 5ft 7 or under well into their 80 or 90s. All of these men are of average weight. Seldom do I see any males above this height in this age bracket.

Clearly there will be some tall males out there who live a long life, but I am not seeing them.

Based on my observations if you are a tall male spend your DC pot early, if you are a short male make sure you have got some left for later…

Call me a skeptic. Are you talking about males? Females? Both?

Perhaps the seven mentions of 'male' or 'men' give a subtle indication?

But yes, agree with the rest of your post....

TadleyBaggie

I saw my in-laws penny pinching into their late 80's, then dying within weeks of each other, leaving a large estate. They could have such a better retirement, I won't make that mistake.

Linton

TadleyBaggie said:

I saw my in-laws penny pinching into their late 80's, then dying within weeks of each other, leaving a large estate. They could have such a better retirement, I won't make that mistake.

Not if they had spent it all by their early 70's on extravagances they could barely remember.  Perhaps they had been penny-pinching all their lives and saw no need  to change their attitudes when old and would not have been any happier if they had in their view wasted their money.

The problem with a spend it all now approach is that if you win out and die young you are dead and so wont care.  If you live to a ripe old age you will have many years regretting your foolishness when young.

Best to plan to keep your income steady.